Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (66%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Macarthur FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 0.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 34¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
2 arb excluded
$9.9K
-$713.67
24.3¢ → 33.7¢
+39% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 66%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 75.3¢ | $3.5K | $3.8K | +$279.96 | 50% 25065-24808 (49873) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 75.3¢ | $3.0K | $2.7K | -$360.43 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 14.4¢ | $480.51 | $1.1K | +$640.39 | |
DA dashattackerCTR | Underavg 24.9¢ | $3.8K | $3.2K | -$646.16 | 72% 2399-924 (3323) |
SN SnakeBall | Overavg 79.5¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$149.22 | 50% 33354-32918 (66272) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Overavg 70.8¢ | $595.85 | $821.55 | +$225.7 | 59% 45758-32100 (77858) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 16.3¢ | $261.14 | $494.49 | +$233.36 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 70.8¢ | $334.72 | $327.06 | -$7.66 | |
OM omnibus-076daa | Overavg 66.5¢ | $219 | $218.34 | -$0.66 | 49% 19146-19539 (38685) |
FO fooooolCTR | Underavg 13.4¢ | $93.15 | $167.05 | +$73.89 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 8.8¢ | $13.34 | $21.82 | +$8.48 | 53% 4546-4095 (8641) |
Invested
$3,496.01
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$279.96
Record
50%
25065-24808 (49873)
Both legs:
Invested
$3,843.52
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$646.16
Record
72%
2399-924 (3323)
Invested
$1,848
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$149.22
Record
50%
33354-32918 (66272)
Invested
$595.85
Value
$821.55
PnL
+$225.7
Record
59%
45758-32100 (77858)
Both legs:
Invested
$219
Value
$218.34
PnL
-$0.66
Record
49%
19146-19539 (38685)
Invested
$93.15
Value
$167.05
PnL
+$73.89
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$13.34
Value
$21.82
PnL
+$8.48
Record
53%
4546-4095 (8641)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.