Macarthur FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 100¢ · $714 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$713.98
$53.07
82.2¢ → 100¢
+22% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dashattacker | Underavg 83.8¢ | $588.99 | $660.87 | +$71.88 | 72% 2399-924 (3323) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 13.9¢ | $46.18 | $26.41 | -$19.77 | 49% 7902-8215 (16117) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 30¢ | $6.94 | $11.34 | +$4.4 | 59% 10128-7124 (17252) |
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100 | Underavg 99¢ | $15.17 | $10.49 | -$4.67 | 95% 23012-1157 (24169) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 59.5¢ | $3.64 | $4.87 | +$1.23 | 53% 4546-4095 (8641) |
Invested
$588.99
Value
$660.87
PnL
+$71.88
Record
72%
2399-924 (3323)
Invested
$46.18
Value
$26.41
PnL
-$19.77
Record
49%
7902-8215 (16117)
poshposh<$100Invested
$6.94
Value
$11.34
PnL
+$4.4
Record
59%
10128-7124 (17252)
Invested
$15.17
Value
$10.49
PnL
-$4.67
Record
95%
23012-1157 (24169)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.64
Value
$4.87
PnL
+$1.23
Record
53%
4546-4095 (8641)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.