Kobe: Maxim Zhukov vs Takuya Kumasaka

24 of 35 top Polymarket traders hold Takuya Kumasaka (69%) · Takuya Kumasaka at 91¢ · $159K held · ends Nov 22

Maxim Zhukov10¢Takuya Kumasaka90¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Takuya Kumasaka

Consensus Traders

Takuya Kumasaka 69%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$158.7K

Combined PnL

$-10.0K

Smart Money Entry

89.8¢ → 90.5¢

+1% since entry · 24 traders

Research grade

NeutralTakuya Kumasaka at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Takuya Kumasaka

24 of 35 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Maxim Zhukov10%

Takuya Kumasaka91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Takuya Kumasaka24 traders

Total Value$151.5K

Total Shares156,640

Combined PnL$-4.8K

Maxim Zhukov11 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares59,528

Combined PnL$-5.2K

Takuya Kumasaka — 69%Maxim Zhukov — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FORMATHERRUSSIA	Takuya Kumasakaavg 89.9¢	$61.6K	$54.4K	+$555.86	— 5-1 (6)
RN1	Takuya Kumasakaavg 91.5¢	$37.0K	$33.5K	$-3.5K	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Takuya Kumasakaavg 91.1¢	$23.6K	$19.3K	-$931.63	49% 572-596 (1168)
FL Flaznorp	Takuya Kumasakaavg 88.8¢	$15.7K	$15.5K	-$191.1	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
SU suitcase6628	Takuya Kumasakaavg 90¢	$7.0K	$7.0K	+$23.9	65% 668-360 (1028)
0X 0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8	Takuya Kumasakaavg 94¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	+$23.94	— 9-1 (10)
MA MadridTime	Takuya Kumasakaavg 92¢	$4.0K	$3.7K	-$273.27	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
dips.	Takuya Kumasakaavg 89¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$35.49	48% 1115-1227 (2342)
TRCMARB<$100	Maxim Zhukovavg 30.5¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$30	16% 89-455 (544)
└ Takuya Kumasaka leg	Takuya Kumasakaavg 60¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$350
└ Maxim Zhukov leg	Maxim Zhukovavg 30.5¢	$1.2K	$900	-$320
TH thirdt1meCTR	Maxim Zhukovavg 17.2¢	$6.7K	$2.0K	$-2.8K	48% 311-334 (645)
tradecraft	Takuya Kumasakaavg 60¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$378.41	33% 415-860 (1275)
NO NotJump	Takuya Kumasakaavg 77.1¢	$3.4K	$1.7K	-$86.24	51% 970-935 (1905)
VE VenusianCTR	Maxim Zhukovavg 8.6¢	$2.4K	$1.5K	-$855.08	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Takuya Kumasakaavg 89.1¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$35.65	56% 4102-3203 (7305)
GA Gaditima	Takuya Kumasakaavg 83.6¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$80.57	49% 324-333 (657)
38 38791873984189	Takuya Kumasakaavg 89.9¢	$3.1K	$1.1K	-$658.54	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
SM smithagent	Takuya Kumasakaavg 89¢	$990.52	$1.0K	+$13.82	46% 775-926 (1701)
BA babybells	Takuya Kumasakaavg 91.5¢	$1.2K	$807.14	-$68.96	32% 228-491 (719)
SC SchruteBucks	Takuya Kumasakaavg 93¢	$654	$474.93	-$115.85	27% 188-513 (701)
SE sentrioCTR	Maxim Zhukovavg 10.8¢	$328.21	$320.5	-$7.71	41% 1108-1568 (2676)
CI cigarettesCTR	Maxim Zhukovavg 13¢	$325	$262.5	-$62.5	53% 7310-6373 (13683)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Maxim Zhukovavg 13.2¢	$271.19	$215.21	-$55.98	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
LR lryyy	Takuya Kumasakaavg 90¢	$170.82	$172.17	+$1.34	46% 877-1050 (1927)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Takuya Kumasakaavg 90¢	$157.85	$134.8	-$23.05	52% 199-181 (380)
└ Takuya Kumasaka leg	Takuya Kumasakaavg 90¢	$99.02	$99.55	+$0.53
└ Maxim Zhukov leg	Maxim Zhukovavg 15.9¢	$58.83	$35.25	-$23.58
LI LightParadoxCTR	Maxim Zhukovavg 17.5¢	$400.6	$125.66	-$274.94	37% 1176-1966 (3142)

FORMATHERRUSSIA

Takuya Kumasaka

Invested

$61,642.05

Value

$54.4K

PnL

+$555.86

Record

—

5-1 (6)

RN1

Takuya Kumasaka

Invested

$36,986.67

Value

$33.5K

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

CandleHammerDrums

Takuya Kumasaka

Invested

$23,561.38

Value

$19.3K

PnL

-$931.63

Record

49%

572-596 (1168)

Flaznorp

Takuya Kumasaka

Invested

$15,746.39

Value

$15.5K

PnL

-$191.1

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

suitcase6628

Takuya Kumasaka

Invested

$6,999.7

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$23.9

Record

65%

668-360 (1028)

0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8

Takuya Kumasaka

Invested

$4,499.99

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$23.94

Record

—

9-1 (10)

MadridTime

Takuya Kumasaka

Invested

$3,994.87

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$273.27

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

dips.

Takuya Kumasaka

Invested

$3,401.77

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$35.49

Record

48%

1115-1227 (2342)

TRCMARB<$100

Maxim Zhukov

Invested

$2,420

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$30

Record

16%

89-455 (544)

Both legs:

Takuya Kumasaka$1,20060¢+$350

Maxim Zhukov$1,22030.5¢-$320

thirdt1meCTR

Maxim Zhukov

Invested

$6,734.49

Value

$2.0K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

48%

311-334 (645)

tradecraft

Takuya Kumasaka

Invested

$1,623.32

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$378.41

Record

33%

415-860 (1275)

NotJump

Takuya Kumasaka

Invested

$3,388.52

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$86.24

Record

51%

970-935 (1905)

VenusianCTR

Maxim Zhukov

Invested

$2,365.08

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$855.08

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Takuya Kumasaka

Invested

$1,488.06

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$35.65

Record

56%

4102-3203 (7305)

Gaditima

Takuya Kumasaka

Invested

$1,138.78

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$80.57

Record

49%

324-333 (657)

38791873984189

Takuya Kumasaka

Invested

$3,137.07

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$658.54

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

smithagent

Takuya Kumasaka

Invested

$990.52

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$13.82

Record

46%

775-926 (1701)

babybells

Takuya Kumasaka

Invested

$1,199.19

Value

$807.14

PnL

-$68.96

Record

32%

228-491 (719)

SchruteBucks

Takuya Kumasaka

Invested

$654

Value

$474.93

PnL

-$115.85

Record

27%

188-513 (701)

sentrioCTR

Maxim Zhukov

Invested

$328.21

Value

$320.5

PnL

-$7.71

Record

41%

1108-1568 (2676)

cigarettesCTR

Maxim Zhukov

Invested

$325

Value

$262.5

PnL

-$62.5

Record

53%

7310-6373 (13683)

topdogbigboiCTR

Maxim Zhukov

Invested

$271.19

Value

$215.21

PnL

-$55.98

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

lryyy

Takuya Kumasaka

Invested

$170.82

Value

$172.17

PnL

+$1.34

Record

46%

877-1050 (1927)

EulhunterARB<$100

Takuya Kumasaka

Invested

$157.85

Value

$134.8

PnL

-$23.05

Record

52%

199-181 (380)

Both legs:

Takuya Kumasaka$99.0290¢+$0.53

Maxim Zhukov$58.8315.9¢-$23.58

LightParadoxCTR

Maxim Zhukov

Invested

$400.6

Value

$125.66

PnL

-$274.94

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

Research grade

NeutralTakuya Kumasaka at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Takuya Kumasaka

24 of 35 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Takuya Kumasaka wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.