Sydney: Evan Zhu vs Daniel Jovanovski

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Evan Zhu (80%) · Evan Zhu at 93¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22

Evan Zhu93¢Daniel Jovanovski7¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Evan Zhu

Consensus Traders

Evan Zhu 80%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$75.16

Smart Money Entry

82.4¢ → 92.5¢

+12% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralEvan Zhu at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Evan Zhu

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Evan Zhu93%

Daniel Jovanovski8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Evan Zhu8 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,066

Combined PnL+$74.29

Daniel Jovanovski2 traders

Total Value$32.11

Total Shares146

Combined PnL+$0.87

Evan Zhu — 80%Daniel Jovanovski — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Evan Zhuavg 87¢	$586.79	$590.16	+$3.37	50% 2654-2620 (5274)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Evan Zhuavg 82.3¢	$524.31	$557.19	+$32.88	49% 564-591 (1155)
FL Flaznorp	Evan Zhuavg 77.9¢	$274.15	$276.31	+$2.16	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
LI LightParadox	Evan Zhuavg 78¢	$213.08	$241.76	+$28.68	37% 1155-1943 (3098)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Evan Zhuavg 82.7¢	$53.54	$58.58	+$5.04	34% 225-440 (665)
TH thirdt1me<$100	Evan Zhuavg 79¢	$70.55	$40.76	+$2.31	48% 304-328 (632)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Daniel Jovanovskiavg 21.8¢	$24.99	$25.23	+$0.24	46% 546-643 (1189)
GA Gaditima<$100	Evan Zhuavg 77¢	$16.57	$16.78	+$0.22	49% 313-320 (633)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Evan Zhuavg 81¢	$10	$9.63	-$0.37	45% 182-221 (403)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Daniel Jovanovskiavg 20¢	$6.25	$6.88	+$0.63	49% 1751-1796 (3547)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Evan Zhu

Invested

$586.79

Value

$590.16

PnL

+$3.37

Record

50%

2654-2620 (5274)

CandleHammerDrums

Evan Zhu

Invested

$524.31

Value

$557.19

PnL

+$32.88

Record

49%

564-591 (1155)

Flaznorp

Evan Zhu

Invested

$274.15

Value

$276.31

PnL

+$2.16

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

LightParadox

Evan Zhu

Invested

$213.08

Value

$241.76

PnL

+$28.68

Record

37%

1155-1943 (3098)

thestingsnake<$100

Evan Zhu

Invested

$53.54

Value

$58.58

PnL

+$5.04

Record

34%

225-440 (665)

thirdt1me<$100

Evan Zhu

Invested

$70.55

Value

$40.76

PnL

+$2.31

Record

48%

304-328 (632)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Daniel Jovanovski

Invested

$24.99

Value

$25.23

PnL

+$0.24

Record

46%

546-643 (1189)

Gaditima<$100

Evan Zhu

Invested

$16.57

Value

$16.78

PnL

+$0.22

Record

49%

313-320 (633)

glennyorkshire<$100

Evan Zhu

Invested

$10

Value

$9.63

PnL

-$0.37

Record

45%

182-221 (403)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Daniel Jovanovski

Invested

$6.25

Value

$6.88

PnL

+$0.63

Record

49%

1751-1796 (3547)

Research grade

NeutralEvan Zhu at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Evan Zhu

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Evan Zhu wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.