Brisbane 3: Evan Zhu vs Thomas Fancutt

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Thomas Fancutt (50%) · Thomas Fancutt at 100¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 15

Evan Zhu<1¢Thomas Fancutt>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Thomas Fancutt

Consensus Traders

Thomas Fancutt 50%

Total Value

$12.5K

Combined PnL

$2.9K

Smart Money Entry

44.8¢ → 100¢

+123% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralThomas Fancutt at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thomas Fancutt

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Evan Zhu0%

Thomas Fancutt100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thomas Fancutt7 traders

Total Value$11.6K

Total Shares13,508

Combined PnL+$3.4K

Evan Zhu7 traders

Total Value$942.38

Total Shares3,440

Combined PnL-$488.13

Thomas Fancutt — 50%Evan Zhu — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Thomas Fancuttavg 25.8¢	$2.0K	$5.2K	+$3.2K	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
38 38791873984189	Thomas Fancuttavg 56.6¢	$4.3K	$2.8K	-$40.69	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
AF 0xafef...f50e	Thomas Fancuttavg 60.5¢	$2.3K	$1.9K	-$405.84	—
TH thestingsnake	Thomas Fancuttavg 47.6¢	$784.44	$1.3K	+$638.8	60% 4530-3029 (7559)
AN anon122CTR	Evan Zhuavg 74¢	$706.74	$477.49	-$229.25	44% 37-48 (85)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Evan Zhuavg 25¢	$647.94	$429.94	-$218.01	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Thomas Fancuttavg 60.5¢	$133.04	$123.89	-$9.15	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
OM omnibus-076daa	Thomas Fancuttavg 36¢	$37.79	$104.92	+$67.13	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
machinelearned<$100	Thomas Fancuttavg 53.5¢	$42.8	$79.96	+$37.16	55% 9938-8254 (18192)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Evan Zhuavg 65.8¢	$24.14	$18.34	-$5.8	48% 3689-3932 (7621)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Evan Zhuavg 65¢	$21.45	$16.5	-$4.95	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Evan Zhuavg 4.2¢	$6.78	$0.08	-$6.7	47% 9585-10702 (20287)
OJ ojgCTR<$100	Evan Zhuavg 34¢	$11.9	$0.02	-$11.88	43% 838-1096 (1934)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Evan Zhuavg 38.5¢	$11.55	$0.02	-$11.54	64% 5377-2997 (8374)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$2,043.29

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

38791873984189

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$4,291.62

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$40.69

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

0xafef...f50e

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$2,337.59

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$405.84

Record

—

thestingsnake

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$784.44

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$638.8

Record

60%

4530-3029 (7559)

anon122CTR

Evan Zhu

Invested

$706.74

Value

$477.49

PnL

-$229.25

Record

44%

37-48 (85)

FlaznorpCTR

Evan Zhu

Invested

$647.94

Value

$429.94

PnL

-$218.01

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$133.04

Value

$123.89

PnL

-$9.15

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

omnibus-076daa

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$37.79

Value

$104.92

PnL

+$67.13

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

machinelearned<$100

Thomas Fancutt

Invested

$42.8

Value

$79.96

PnL

+$37.16

Record

55%

9938-8254 (18192)

efntrickCTR<$100

Evan Zhu

Invested

$24.14

Value

$18.34

PnL

-$5.8

Record

48%

3689-3932 (7621)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Evan Zhu

Invested

$21.45

Value

$16.5

PnL

-$4.95

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

lryyyCTR<$100

Evan Zhu

Invested

$6.78

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$6.7

Record

47%

9585-10702 (20287)

ojgCTR<$100

Evan Zhu

Invested

$11.9

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$11.88

Record

43%

838-1096 (1934)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Evan Zhu

Invested

$11.55

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$11.54

Record

64%

5377-2997 (8374)

Research grade

NeutralThomas Fancutt at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Thomas Fancutt

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thomas Fancutt wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.