Taipei: Coleman Wong vs Kasidit Samrej

23 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Coleman Wong (74%) · Coleman Wong at 100¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 13

Coleman Wong>99¢Kasidit Samrej<1¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Coleman Wong

Consensus Traders

Coleman Wong 74%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$31.8K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Smart Money Entry

89.6¢ → 100¢

+12% since entry · 23 traders

Research grade

NeutralColeman Wong at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Coleman Wong

23 of 31 top traders (74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Coleman Wong100%

Kasidit Samrej0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Coleman Wong23 traders

Total Value$30.9K

Total Shares31,220

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Kasidit Samrej8 traders

Total Value$536.46

Total Shares5,162

Combined PnL-$81.25

Coleman Wong — 74%Kasidit Samrej — 26%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Coleman Wong. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColeman Wong 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKasidit Samrej 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedColeman Wong 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Coleman Wong 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Coleman Wongavg 84.2¢	$6.2K	$7.3K	+$1.1K	53% 61713-54027 (115740)
LI LightParadox	Coleman Wongavg 94.4¢	$3.8K	$4.0K	+$203.55	50% 1578-1595 (3173)
FL Flaznorp	Coleman Wongavg 90.9¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$117.03	51% 26298-24932 (51230)
LI Limousin	Coleman Wongavg 93.5¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	+$189.88	51% 1632-1544 (3176)
VE Venusian	Coleman Wongavg 92.7¢	$2.7K	$3.0K	+$205.28	50% 1593-1621 (3214)
TH thestingsnake	Coleman Wongavg 89¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$262.85	60% 4471-2987 (7458)
PA Paul973973	Coleman Wongavg 96.1¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$74.49	88% 1048-137 (1185)
OM omnibus-076daa	Coleman Wongavg 87.6¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$173.92	50% 21334-21619 (42953)
VeryLucky888	Coleman Wongavg 83¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$216.31	58% 47020-33905 (80925)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Coleman Wongavg 82¢	$986.33	$864.98	-$121.35	42% 8022-11208 (19230)
MA MadridTime	Coleman Wongavg 94.3¢	$694.16	$695.77	+$1.61	49% 1535-1615 (3150)
EU Eulhunter	Coleman Wongavg 83.7¢	$524.83	$523.55	-$1.29	54% 6299-5361 (11660)
12xmrboltCTR	Kasidit Samrejavg 17.7¢	$526.14	$490.32	-$35.82	44% 262-338 (600)
0xheavy888	Coleman Wongavg 84¢	$373.8	$371.58	-$2.23	56% 8090-6420 (14510)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 7.9¢	$886.69	$301.74	-$225.55	48% 61710-66575 (128285)
└ Coleman Wong leg	Coleman Wongavg 97.1¢	$236.92	$240.58	+$6.99
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 7.9¢	$345.33	$61.16	-$232.54
1L 1lovejump	Coleman Wongavg 93.9¢	$1.8K	$166.48	+$26.25	53% 804-714 (1518)
tradecraftARB<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 14.6¢	$242.78	$141.69	-$101.09	51% 6433-6217 (12650)
└ Coleman Wong leg	Coleman Wongavg 93.1¢	$93.13	$95.57	+$2.44
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 14.6¢	$149.65	$46.12	-$103.53
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Coleman Wongavg 90.5¢	$79.41	$79.59	+$0.18	52% 14578-13266 (27844)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Coleman Wongavg 85.9¢	$47.24	$47.85	+$0.61	57% 19362-14337 (33699)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 15¢	$34.86	$34.86	+$0	61% 14437-9367 (23804)
TRCM<$100	Coleman Wongavg 85.9¢	$22.86	$22.49	-$0.36	55% 4066-3281 (7347)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Coleman Wongavg 82¢	$9.8	$10	+$0.2	82% 7461-1642 (9103)
PA pauleta23<$100	Coleman Wongavg 88.5¢	$10.06	$9.6	-$0.46	66% 24346-12425 (36771)
EF efntrick<$100	Coleman Wongavg 83¢	$8.3	$8.3	+$0	48% 3668-3926 (7594)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 15¢	$6	$6	+$0	54% 10064-8455 (18519)

RN1

Coleman Wong

Invested

$6,213.22

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

53%

61713-54027 (115740)

LightParadox

Coleman Wong

Invested

$3,827.18

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$203.55

Record

50%

1578-1595 (3173)

Flaznorp

Coleman Wong

Invested

$3,521.53

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$117.03

Record

51%

26298-24932 (51230)

Limousin

Coleman Wong

Invested

$2,773.15

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$189.88

Record

51%

1632-1544 (3176)

Venusian

Coleman Wong

Invested

$2,748.76

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$205.28

Record

50%

1593-1621 (3214)

thestingsnake

Coleman Wong

Invested

$2,558.96

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$262.85

Record

60%

4471-2987 (7458)

Paul973973

Coleman Wong

Invested

$2,004.07

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$74.49

Record

88%

1048-137 (1185)

omnibus-076daa

Coleman Wong

Invested

$1,229.7

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$173.92

Record

50%

21334-21619 (42953)

VeryLucky888

Coleman Wong

Invested

$1,284.88

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$216.31

Record

58%

47020-33905 (80925)

ferrariChampions2026

Coleman Wong

Invested

$986.33

Value

$864.98

PnL

-$121.35

Record

42%

8022-11208 (19230)

MadridTime

Coleman Wong

Invested

$694.16

Value

$695.77

PnL

+$1.61

Record

49%

1535-1615 (3150)

Eulhunter

Coleman Wong

Invested

$524.83

Value

$523.55

PnL

-$1.29

Record

54%

6299-5361 (11660)

12xmrboltCTR

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$526.14

Value

$490.32

PnL

-$35.82

Record

44%

262-338 (600)

0xheavy888

Coleman Wong

Invested

$373.8

Value

$371.58

PnL

-$2.23

Record

56%

8090-6420 (14510)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$886.69

Value

$301.74

PnL

-$225.55

Record

48%

61710-66575 (128285)

Both legs:

Coleman Wong$236.9297.1¢+$6.99

Kasidit Samrej$345.337.9¢-$232.54

1lovejump

Coleman Wong

Invested

$1,755.71

Value

$166.48

PnL

+$26.25

Record

53%

804-714 (1518)

tradecraftARB<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$242.78

Value

$141.69

PnL

-$101.09

Record

51%

6433-6217 (12650)

Both legs:

Coleman Wong$93.1393.1¢+$2.44

Kasidit Samrej$149.6514.6¢-$103.53

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Coleman Wong

Invested

$79.41

Value

$79.59

PnL

+$0.18

Record

52%

14578-13266 (27844)

BillBenter2026<$100

Coleman Wong

Invested

$47.24

Value

$47.85

PnL

+$0.61

Record

57%

19362-14337 (33699)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$34.86

Value

$34.86

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

14437-9367 (23804)

TRCM<$100

Coleman Wong

Invested

$22.86

Value

$22.49

PnL

-$0.36

Record

55%

4066-3281 (7347)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Coleman Wong

Invested

$9.8

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.2

Record

82%

7461-1642 (9103)

pauleta23<$100

Coleman Wong

Invested

$10.06

Value

$9.6

PnL

-$0.46

Record

66%

24346-12425 (36771)

efntrick<$100

Coleman Wong

Invested

$8.3

Value

$8.3

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

3668-3926 (7594)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

10064-8455 (18519)

Research grade

NeutralColeman Wong at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Coleman Wong

23 of 31 top traders (74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Coleman Wong. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColeman Wong 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKasidit Samrej 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedColeman Wong 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Coleman Wong 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Coleman Wong wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.