Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Zach Stephens, while the market favors Colson Wells (65%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Champaign: Colson Wells vs Zach Stephens

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Zach Stephens (56%) · Zach Stephens at 36¢ · $544 held · ends Nov 22

Colson Wells65¢Zach Stephens35¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Zach Stephens

Consensus Traders

Zach Stephens 56%

Total Value

$543.76

Combined PnL

-$10.74

Smart Money Entry

36.2¢ → 35.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralZach Stephens at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Zach Stephens

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Colson Wells 65%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Colson Wells65%

Zach Stephens36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Zach Stephens5 traders

Total Value$272.39

Total Shares777

Combined PnL-$8.91

Colson Wells4 traders

Total Value$271.37

Total Shares430

Combined PnL-$1.83

Zach Stephens — 56%Colson Wells — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Zach Stephens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrZach Stephens 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Zach Stephens 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE VenusianCTR	Zach Stephensavg 36.5¢	$214.17	$205.45	-$8.72	38% 1354-2217 (3571)
EF efntrick	Colson Wellsavg 63.6¢	$193.85	$192.15	-$1.7	46% 116-135 (251)
PA Pan9X<$100	Colson Wellsavg 63.4¢	$51.98	$51.66	-$0.32	50% 2190-2198 (4388)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Zach Stephensavg 35¢	$38.18	$38.18	+$0	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
38 38791873984189<$100	Colson Wellsavg 64¢	$24.17	$24.36	+$0.19	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Zach Stephensavg 36¢	$14.04	$13.84	-$0.2	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	Zach Stephensavg 36¢	$10	$9.86	-$0.14	47% 226-251 (477)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Zach Stephensavg 35¢	$4.92	$5.06	+$0.14	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Colson Wellsavg 64¢	$3.2	$3.2	+$0	43% 861-1147 (2008)

VenusianCTR

Zach Stephens

Invested

$214.17

Value

$205.45

PnL

-$8.72

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

efntrick

Colson Wells

Invested

$193.85

Value

$192.15

PnL

-$1.7

Record

46%

116-135 (251)

Pan9X<$100

Colson Wells

Invested

$51.98

Value

$51.66

PnL

-$0.32

Record

50%

2190-2198 (4388)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Zach Stephens

Invested

$38.18

Value

$38.18

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

38791873984189<$100

Colson Wells

Invested

$24.17

Value

$24.36

PnL

+$0.19

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Zach Stephens

Invested

$14.04

Value

$13.84

PnL

-$0.2

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

Zach Stephens

Invested

$10

Value

$9.86

PnL

-$0.14

Record

47%

226-251 (477)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Zach Stephens

Invested

$4.92

Value

$5.06

PnL

+$0.14

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

ameisgoat11<$100

Colson Wells

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.2

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

861-1147 (2008)

Research grade

NeutralZach Stephens at 36%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Zach Stephens

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Colson Wells 65%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Zach Stephens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrZach Stephens 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Zach Stephens 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Zach Stephens wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.