Helsinki: Kai Wehnelt vs Gabi Adrian Boitan

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Kai Wehnelt (53%) · Kai Wehnelt at 80¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 22

Kai Wehnelt80¢Gabi Adrian Boitan20¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kai Wehnelt

Consensus Traders

Kai Wehnelt 53%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.7K

Combined PnL

$3.2K

Smart Money Entry

60.5¢ → 79.5¢

+31% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralKai Wehnelt at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kai Wehnelt

9 of 17 top traders (53%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kai Wehnelt80%

Gabi Adrian Boitan21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kai Wehnelt9 traders

Total Value$12.6K

Total Shares15,865

Combined PnL+$2.7K

Gabi Adrian Boitan8 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares9,262

Combined PnL+$504.98

Kai Wehnelt — 53%Gabi Adrian Boitan — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Kai Wehnelt. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Gabi Adrian Boitan) and the top 1000 (16 on Kai Wehnelt) disagree here.

sharpKai Wehnelt 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrKai Wehnelt 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedGabi Adrian Boitan 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Kai Wehnelt 56% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Gabi Adrian Boitanavg 35.1¢	$5.1K	$5.7K	+$591.48	50% 4045-4053 (8098)
└ Kai Wehnelt leg	Kai Wehneltavg 37.3¢	$1.6K	$3.1K	+$1.6K
└ Gabi Adrian Boitan leg	Gabi Adrian Boitanavg 35.1¢	$3.6K	$2.6K	-$978.2
VE Venusian	Kai Wehneltavg 65.7¢	$4.7K	$5.2K	+$685.2	38% 1354-2217 (3571)
LI Limousin	Kai Wehneltavg 69¢	$3.4K	$3.8K	+$463.31	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Gabi Adrian Boitanavg 48.4¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$79.94	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
└ Gabi Adrian Boitan leg	Gabi Adrian Boitanavg 48.4¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$304.15
└ Kai Wehnelt leg	Kai Wehneltavg 33.6¢	$453.28	$837.37	+$384.09
BA Bagwell306	Kai Wehneltavg 45.8¢	$1.1K	$1.8K	+$751.65	37% 94-161 (255)
RN1CTR	Gabi Adrian Boitanavg 29.6¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$428.32	54% 6019-5096 (11115)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Kai Wehneltavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
└ Kai Wehnelt leg	Kai Wehneltavg 50¢	$525	$651	+$126
└ Gabi Adrian Boitan leg	Gabi Adrian Boitanavg 50¢	$525	$399	-$126
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Kai Wehneltavg 51.3¢	$728.14	$798.22	+$70.08	56% 4169-3265 (7434)
└ Kai Wehnelt leg	Kai Wehneltavg 51.3¢	$398.35	$601.36	+$203.01
└ Gabi Adrian Boitan leg	Gabi Adrian Boitanavg 37.7¢	$329.8	$196.86	-$132.94
VI vibing123	Kai Wehneltavg 42¢	$378.84	$708.07	+$329.23	61% 1205-765 (1970)
OM omnibus-076daa	Kai Wehneltavg 44¢	$371.87	$590.02	+$238.12	46% 643-756 (1399)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Gabi Adrian Boitanavg 40.5¢	$1.4K	$563.01	-$215.07	48% 373-412 (785)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Gabi Adrian Boitanavg 31¢	$2.9K	$546.93	+$366.56	48% 638-680 (1318)
38 38791873984189CTR	Gabi Adrian Boitanavg 34.8¢	$2.0K	$367.63	+$37.64	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Gabi Adrian Boitanavg 45.1¢	$686.59	$297.12	-$33.23	34% 272-524 (796)
└ Kai Wehnelt leg	Kai Wehneltavg 56.1¢	$140.02	$193.27	+$95.22
└ Gabi Adrian Boitan leg	Gabi Adrian Boitanavg 45.1¢	$208.31	$103.86	-$128.45
LI LightParadox	Kai Wehneltavg 35.2¢	$125.29	$279.75	+$154.46	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
MA MadridTime	Kai Wehneltavg 36¢	$58.5	$127.56	+$69.06	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Kai Wehneltavg 69.1¢	$72.02	$63.12	-$6.73	33% 305-622 (927)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Gabi Adrian Boitanavg 53¢	$135	$54.76	-$80.24	41% 739-1047 (1786)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Gabi Adrian Boitanavg 51.4¢	$64.27	$47.53	-$16.74	46% 479-565 (1044)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Kai Wehneltavg 27¢	$4.05	$11.78	+$7.73	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Gabi Adrian Boitanavg 55¢	$11	$7.6	-$3.4	83% 978-205 (1183)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Gabi Adrian Boitanavg 60.2¢	$18.8	$6.71	-$12.09	43% 564-761 (1325)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Gabi Adrian Boitan

Invested

$5,146.48

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$591.48

Record

50%

4045-4053 (8098)

Both legs:

Kai Wehnelt$1,574.137.3¢+$1.6K

Gabi Adrian Boitan$3,572.3835.1¢-$978.2

Venusian

Kai Wehnelt

Invested

$4,728.78

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$685.2

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

Limousin

Kai Wehnelt

Invested

$3,365.11

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$463.31

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Gabi Adrian Boitan

Invested

$1,871.11

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$79.94

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

Both legs:

Gabi Adrian Boitan$1,417.8348.4¢-$304.15

Kai Wehnelt$453.2833.6¢+$384.09

Bagwell306

Kai Wehnelt

Invested

$1,053.13

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$751.65

Record

37%

94-161 (255)

RN1CTR

Gabi Adrian Boitan

Invested

$1,175.82

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$428.32

Record

54%

6019-5096 (11115)

NotJumpARB<$100

Kai Wehnelt

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

Both legs:

Kai Wehnelt$52550¢+$126

Gabi Adrian Boitan$52550¢-$126

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Kai Wehnelt

Invested

$728.14

Value

$798.22

PnL

+$70.08

Record

56%

4169-3265 (7434)

Both legs:

Kai Wehnelt$398.3551.3¢+$203.01

Gabi Adrian Boitan$329.837.7¢-$132.94

vibing123

Kai Wehnelt

Invested

$378.84

Value

$708.07

PnL

+$329.23

Record

61%

1205-765 (1970)

omnibus-076daa

Kai Wehnelt

Invested

$371.87

Value

$590.02

PnL

+$238.12

Record

46%

643-756 (1399)

thirdt1meCTR

Gabi Adrian Boitan

Invested

$1,383.5

Value

$563.01

PnL

-$215.07

Record

48%

373-412 (785)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Gabi Adrian Boitan

Invested

$2,885.86

Value

$546.93

PnL

+$366.56

Record

48%

638-680 (1318)

38791873984189CTR

Gabi Adrian Boitan

Invested

$2,031.03

Value

$367.63

PnL

+$37.64

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

babybellsARB<$100

Gabi Adrian Boitan

Invested

$686.59

Value

$297.12

PnL

-$33.23

Record

34%

272-524 (796)

Both legs:

Kai Wehnelt$140.0256.1¢+$95.22

Gabi Adrian Boitan$208.3145.1¢-$128.45

LightParadox

Kai Wehnelt

Invested

$125.29

Value

$279.75

PnL

+$154.46

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

MadridTime

Kai Wehnelt

Invested

$58.5

Value

$127.56

PnL

+$69.06

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

BillBenter2026<$100

Kai Wehnelt

Invested

$72.02

Value

$63.12

PnL

-$6.73

Record

33%

305-622 (927)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Gabi Adrian Boitan

Invested

$135

Value

$54.76

PnL

-$80.24

Record

41%

739-1047 (1786)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Gabi Adrian Boitan

Invested

$64.27

Value

$47.53

PnL

-$16.74

Record

46%

479-565 (1044)

ferdinand2<$100

Kai Wehnelt

Invested

$4.05

Value

$11.78

PnL

+$7.73

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Gabi Adrian Boitan

Invested

$11

Value

$7.6

PnL

-$3.4

Record

83%

978-205 (1183)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Gabi Adrian Boitan

Invested

$18.8

Value

$6.71

PnL

-$12.09

Record

43%

564-761 (1325)

Research grade

NeutralKai Wehnelt at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kai Wehnelt

9 of 17 top traders (53%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Kai Wehnelt. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Gabi Adrian Boitan) and the top 1000 (16 on Kai Wehnelt) disagree here.

sharpKai Wehnelt 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrKai Wehnelt 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedGabi Adrian Boitan 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Kai Wehnelt 56% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kai Wehnelt wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.