Kobe: Kanta Watanabe vs S D Prajwal Dev

15 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Kanta Watanabe (83%) · Kanta Watanabe at 60¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 22

Kanta Watanabe60¢S D Prajwal Dev40¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kanta Watanabe

Consensus Traders

Kanta Watanabe 83%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

-$116.79

Smart Money Entry

53.3¢ → 59.5¢

+12% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralKanta Watanabe at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kanta Watanabe

15 of 18 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Kanta Watanabe60%

S D Prajwal Dev41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

S D Prajwal Dev3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,406

Combined PnL-$94.04

Kanta Watanabe15 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,176

Combined PnL-$22.75

S D Prajwal Dev — 17%Kanta Watanabe — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTimeCTR	S D Prajwal Devavg 43.2¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$79.08	38% 1230-1969 (3199)
TRCM	Kanta Watanabeavg 57¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$9.71	17% 90-455 (545)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	S D Prajwal Devavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$31.5	51% 994-962 (1956)
└ S D Prajwal Dev leg	S D Prajwal Devavg 50¢	$525	$693	+$168
└ Kanta Watanabe leg	Kanta Watanabeavg 50¢	$525	$325.5	-$199.5
TH thirdt1me	Kanta Watanabeavg 55.3¢	$346.46	$353.62	+$7.17	48% 326-352 (678)
FL Flaznorp	Kanta Watanabeavg 50.9¢	$341.68	$312.43	-$29.25	49% 4352-4620 (8972)
tradecraft	Kanta Watanabeavg 60¢	$293.65	$291.2	-$2.45	33% 427-868 (1295)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	S D Prajwal Devavg 46.5¢	$231.9	$216.94	-$14.96	40% 652-976 (1628)
SC SchruteBucks	Kanta Watanabeavg 57¢	$513	$211.49	-$1.87	27% 189-514 (703)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Kanta Watanabeavg 47.4¢	$137.94	$149.94	+$12	49% 573-601 (1174)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	S D Prajwal Devavg 43¢	$119.53	$124.04	+$4.51	34% 228-440 (668)
└ S D Prajwal Dev leg	S D Prajwal Devavg 43¢	$87.68	$86.66	-$1.02
└ Kanta Watanabe leg	Kanta Watanabeavg 49¢	$31.85	$37.38	+$5.52
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Kanta Watanabeavg 56.4¢	$66.04	$66.13	+$0.09	56% 4109-3207 (7316)
VeryLucky888<$100	Kanta Watanabeavg 32¢	$66.32	$64.35	-$1.96	54% 1691-1455 (3146)
BA babybells<$100	Kanta Watanabeavg 53¢	$61.47	$62.06	+$0.59	32% 231-493 (724)
EF efntrick<$100	Kanta Watanabeavg 31¢	$54.35	$54.35	+$0	45% 100-121 (221)
38 38791873984189<$100	Kanta Watanabeavg 44¢	$47.32	$50.01	+$2.69	47% 3580-3963 (7543)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Kanta Watanabeavg 31¢	$12.4	$12.4	+$0	48% 402-433 (835)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Kanta Watanabeavg 55¢	$11.11	$11.01	-$0.1	48% 2348-2563 (4911)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Kanta Watanabeavg 54¢	$10.8	$10.8	+$0	83% 882-182 (1064)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	S D Prajwal Devavg 66¢	$10	$10	+$0	47% 196-225 (421)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Kanta Watanabeavg 53¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	45% 433-525 (958)

MadridTimeCTR

S D Prajwal Dev

Invested

$1,250.56

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$79.08

Record

38%

1230-1969 (3199)

TRCM

Kanta Watanabe

Invested

$1,106.94

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$9.71

Record

17%

90-455 (545)

NotJumpARB<$100

S D Prajwal Dev

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$31.5

Record

51%

994-962 (1956)

Both legs:

S D Prajwal Dev$52550¢+$168

Kanta Watanabe$52550¢-$199.5

thirdt1me

Kanta Watanabe

Invested

$346.46

Value

$353.62

PnL

+$7.17

Record

48%

326-352 (678)

Flaznorp

Kanta Watanabe

Invested

$341.68

Value

$312.43

PnL

-$29.25

Record

49%

4352-4620 (8972)

tradecraft

Kanta Watanabe

Invested

$293.65

Value

$291.2

PnL

-$2.45

Record

33%

427-868 (1295)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

S D Prajwal Dev

Invested

$231.9

Value

$216.94

PnL

-$14.96

Record

40%

652-976 (1628)

SchruteBucks

Kanta Watanabe

Invested

$513

Value

$211.49

PnL

-$1.87

Record

27%

189-514 (703)

CandleHammerDrums

Kanta Watanabe

Invested

$137.94

Value

$149.94

PnL

+$12

Record

49%

573-601 (1174)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

S D Prajwal Dev

Invested

$119.53

Value

$124.04

PnL

+$4.51

Record

34%

228-440 (668)

Both legs:

S D Prajwal Dev$87.6843¢-$1.02

Kanta Watanabe$31.8549¢+$5.52

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Kanta Watanabe

Invested

$66.04

Value

$66.13

PnL

+$0.09

Record

56%

4109-3207 (7316)

VeryLucky888<$100

Kanta Watanabe

Invested

$66.32

Value

$64.35

PnL

-$1.96

Record

54%

1691-1455 (3146)

babybells<$100

Kanta Watanabe

Invested

$61.47

Value

$62.06

PnL

+$0.59

Record

32%

231-493 (724)

efntrick<$100

Kanta Watanabe

Invested

$54.35

Value

$54.35

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

100-121 (221)

38791873984189<$100

Kanta Watanabe

Invested

$47.32

Value

$50.01

PnL

+$2.69

Record

47%

3580-3963 (7543)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Kanta Watanabe

Invested

$12.4

Value

$12.4

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

402-433 (835)

ferdinand2<$100

Kanta Watanabe

Invested

$11.11

Value

$11.01

PnL

-$0.1

Record

48%

2348-2563 (4911)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Kanta Watanabe

Invested

$10.8

Value

$10.8

PnL

+$0

Record

83%

882-182 (1064)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

S D Prajwal Dev

Invested

$10

Value

$10

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

196-225 (421)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Kanta Watanabe

Invested

$4.95

Value

PnL

+$0.05

Record

45%

433-525 (958)

Research grade

NeutralKanta Watanabe at 60%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Kanta Watanabe

15 of 18 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kanta Watanabe wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.