Helsinki: Michael Vrbensky vs Vadym Ursu

17 of 35 top Polymarket traders hold Michael Vrbensky (49%) · Michael Vrbensky at 100¢ · $177K held · ends Nov 22

Michael Vrbensky>99¢Vadym Ursu<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Michael Vrbensky

Consensus Traders

Michael Vrbensky 49%

Total Value

$177.4K

Combined PnL

$2.8K

Smart Money Entry

94.6¢ → 100¢

+6% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralMichael Vrbensky at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Michael Vrbensky

17 of 35 top traders (49%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Michael Vrbensky100%

Vadym Ursu0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Michael Vrbensky17 traders

Total Value$176.0K

Total Shares176,107

Combined PnL+$8.9K

Vadym Ursu18 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares126,042

Combined PnL$-6.1K

Michael Vrbensky — 49%Vadym Ursu — 51%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

51% of non-arb traders are on Michael Vrbensky. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Vadym Ursu) and the top 1000 (35 on Michael Vrbensky) disagree here.

sharpMichael Vrbensky 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperMichael Vrbensky 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrVadym Ursu 56% · 18

Diverging

Hand-pickedVadym Ursu 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Michael Vrbensky 51% · 35

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HV HVAB	Michael Vrbenskyavg 97.3¢	$106.5K	$109.0K	+$2.9K	52% 33-30 (63)
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18	Michael Vrbenskyavg 98¢	$26.2K	$24.4K	+$645.05	65% 48-26 (74)
LoyaltyToRussia	Michael Vrbenskyavg 80.7¢	$21.0K	$24.0K	+$4.6K	— 8-1 (9)
XU xutuu	Michael Vrbenskyavg 96.8¢	$9.5K	$7.2K	+$293.26	68% 38-18 (56)
PA pauleta23	Michael Vrbenskyavg 95.9¢	$4.0K	$4.2K	+$169.75	42% 555-755 (1310)
LI LightParadox	Michael Vrbenskyavg 96.9¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$58.84	37% 1333-2226 (3559)
NO NotJump	Michael Vrbenskyavg 53¢	$2.3K	$1.0K	+$67.29	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
GA Gaditima	Michael Vrbenskyavg 74¢	$890	$1.0K	+$116.75	49% 383-400 (783)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Vadym Ursuavg 14.4¢	$3.0K	$976.62	$-1.2K	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Michael Vrbenskyavg 98.8¢	$906.77	$890.53	-$15.76	56% 4160-3248 (7408)
LI Limousin	Michael Vrbenskyavg 94.9¢	$593.28	$613.26	+$19.99	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
poshposh	Michael Vrbenskyavg 73¢	$287.43	$304.86	+$17.43	49% 1306-1379 (2685)
TH thestingsnake	Michael Vrbenskyavg 96¢	$288	$297.3	+$9.3	36% 247-448 (695)
RN1CTR	Vadym Ursuavg 7.7¢	$2.0K	$262.98	$-1.7K	54% 6014-5089 (11103)
VE Venusian	Michael Vrbenskyavg 96.1¢	$194.41	$167.96	-$26.45	38% 1339-2199 (3538)
BA babybells	Michael Vrbenskyavg 75.1¢	$444.39	$127.98	+$53.39	34% 264-519 (783)
EU Eulhunter	Michael Vrbenskyavg 80.8¢	$173.53	$112.02	-$61.51	53% 212-190 (402)
38 38791873984189CTR	Vadym Ursuavg 8.8¢	$841.5	$63.04	-$545.57	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Vadym Ursuavg 2.1¢	$1.5K	$37.08	$-1.5K	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Vadym Ursuavg 10.2¢	$226.53	$20.08	-$206.45	39% 1554-2430 (3984)
CI cigarettesCTR	Vadym Ursuavg 13.1¢	$225.84	$15.5	-$210.34	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Michael Vrbenskyavg 60¢	$7.54	$12.55	+$5.01	46% 621-730 (1351)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Vadym Ursuavg 24¢	$469.26	$10.42	-$261.75	48% 371-403 (774)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Vadym Ursuavg 24¢	$144	$5.4	-$138.6	49% 629-659 (1288)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR	Vadym Ursuavg 15.7¢	$184.22	$4.65	-$71.8	46% 467-554 (1021)

HVAB

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$106,479.17

Value

$109.0K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

52%

33-30 (63)

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$26,173.97

Value

$24.4K

PnL

+$645.05

Record

65%

48-26 (74)

LoyaltyToRussia

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$21,028.84

Value

$24.0K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

—

8-1 (9)

xutuu

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$9,527.15

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$293.26

Record

68%

38-18 (56)

pauleta23

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$3,994.69

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$169.75

Record

42%

555-755 (1310)

LightParadox

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$2,624.03

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$58.84

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

NotJump

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$2,319.45

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$67.29

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

Gaditima

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$890

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$116.75

Record

49%

383-400 (783)

FlaznorpCTR

Vadym Ursu

Invested

$3,009.45

Value

$976.62

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$906.77

Value

$890.53

PnL

-$15.76

Record

56%

4160-3248 (7408)

Limousin

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$593.28

Value

$613.26

PnL

+$19.99

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

poshposh

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$287.43

Value

$304.86

PnL

+$17.43

Record

49%

1306-1379 (2685)

thestingsnake

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$288

Value

$297.3

PnL

+$9.3

Record

36%

247-448 (695)

RN1CTR

Vadym Ursu

Invested

$2,000.03

Value

$262.98

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

54%

6014-5089 (11103)

Venusian

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$194.41

Value

$167.96

PnL

-$26.45

Record

38%

1339-2199 (3538)

babybells

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$444.39

Value

$127.98

PnL

+$53.39

Record

34%

264-519 (783)

Eulhunter

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$173.53

Value

$112.02

PnL

-$61.51

Record

53%

212-190 (402)

38791873984189CTR

Vadym Ursu

Invested

$841.5

Value

$63.04

PnL

-$545.57

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Vadym Ursu

Invested

$1,529.16

Value

$37.08

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

topdogbigboiCTR

Vadym Ursu

Invested

$226.53

Value

$20.08

PnL

-$206.45

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

cigarettesCTR

Vadym Ursu

Invested

$225.84

Value

$15.5

PnL

-$210.34

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Michael Vrbensky

Invested

$7.54

Value

$12.55

PnL

+$5.01

Record

46%

621-730 (1351)

thirdt1meCTR

Vadym Ursu

Invested

$469.26

Value

$10.42

PnL

-$261.75

Record

48%

371-403 (774)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Vadym Ursu

Invested

$144

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$138.6

Record

49%

629-659 (1288)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR

Vadym Ursu

Invested

$184.22

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$71.8

Record

46%

467-554 (1021)

Research grade

NeutralMichael Vrbensky at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Michael Vrbensky

17 of 35 top traders (49%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

51% of non-arb traders are on Michael Vrbensky. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Vadym Ursu) and the top 1000 (35 on Michael Vrbensky) disagree here.

sharpMichael Vrbensky 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperMichael Vrbensky 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrVadym Ursu 56% · 18

Diverging

Hand-pickedVadym Ursu 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Michael Vrbensky 51% · 35

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Michael Vrbensky wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.