Orleans: Otto Virtanen vs Dino Prizmic

13 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Otto Virtanen (65%) · Otto Virtanen at 83¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 16

Otto Virtanen83¢Dino Prizmic17¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Otto Virtanen

Consensus Traders

Otto Virtanen 65%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.4K

Combined PnL

$189.24

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 82.5¢

+37% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralOtto Virtanen at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Otto Virtanen

13 of 20 top traders (65%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Otto Virtanen83%

Dino Prizmic18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Otto Virtanen13 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares21,423

Combined PnL+$488.2

Dino Prizmic7 traders

Total Value$799.83

Total Shares2,827

Combined PnL-$298.97

Otto Virtanen — 65%Dino Prizmic — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Otto Virtanen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDino Prizmic 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOtto Virtanen 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOtto Virtanen 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Otto Virtanen 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Otto Virtanenavg 75.5¢	$5.4K	$5.7K	+$386.66	54% 1599-1345 (2944)
RN1ARB<$100	Otto Virtanenavg 43¢	$2.9K	$4.0K	+$1.1K	58% 3743-2698 (6441)
└ Otto Virtanen leg	Otto Virtanenavg 43¢	$2.1K	$3.2K	+$1.0K
└ Dino Prizmic leg	Dino Prizmicavg 35.2¢	$770.28	$798.89	+$28.6
VeryLucky888	Otto Virtanenavg 43.2¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$86.53	48% 208-228 (436)
MA MadridTime	Otto Virtanenavg 78.7¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$154.51	25% 202-618 (820)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 21¢	$778.31	$1.0K	+$263.16	51% 3156-3056 (6212)
└ Otto Virtanen leg	Otto Virtanenavg 46¢	$358.31	$611.47	+$253.16
└ Dino Prizmic leg	Dino Prizmicavg 21¢	$420	$430	+$10
GC GC-P	Otto Virtanenavg 43.2¢	$613.15	$595.65	-$17.5	16% 64-346 (410)
NM NM-P	Otto Virtanenavg 43.4¢	$542.5	$525	-$17.5	60% 3439-2335 (5774)
FL Flaznorp	Otto Virtanenavg 72.6¢	$418.29	$480.81	+$62.52	50% 1378-1396 (2774)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Dino Prizmicavg 55¢	$386.74	$407.83	+$21.09	61% 891-567 (1458)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Otto Virtanenavg 66.8¢	$359.31	$353.71	-$5.6	56% 3774-2944 (6718)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 56¢	$500.58	$345.71	+$5.25	48% 721-776 (1497)
└ Dino Prizmic leg	Dino Prizmicavg 56¢	$262.08	$264.42	+$2.34
└ Otto Virtanen leg	Otto Virtanenavg 43.4¢	$81.04	$81.29	+$2.91
0xheavy888	Otto Virtanenavg 45¢	$300.15	$280.14	-$20.01	55% 94-78 (172)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Dino Prizmicavg 35.1¢	$454.47	$180.83	-$203.64	33% 54-112 (166)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 36¢	$156	$152.63	-$3.38	16% 60-327 (387)
└ Dino Prizmic leg	Dino Prizmicavg 36¢	$108	$103.5	-$4.5
└ Otto Virtanen leg	Otto Virtanenavg 64¢	$48	$49.13	+$1.13
LI LimousinARB<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 58.7¢	$295.64	$122.31	-$162.73	24% 200-640 (840)
└ Dino Prizmic leg	Dino Prizmicavg 58.7¢	$224.27	$63.05	-$172.84
└ Otto Virtanen leg	Otto Virtanenavg 69.2¢	$49.14	$59.25	+$10.12
LI LiquidifierCTR	Dino Prizmicavg 33¢	$221.39	$110.7	-$110.7	7% 6-82 (88)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Otto Virtanenavg 64.2¢	$119.14	$110.27	-$4.87	15% 62-357 (419)
└ Otto Virtanen leg	Otto Virtanenavg 64.2¢	$67.63	$87.99	+$21.15
└ Dino Prizmic leg	Dino Prizmicavg 35.8¢	$48.3	$22.28	-$26.02
PA pauleta23<$100	Otto Virtanenavg 66¢	$63.54	$80.4	+$16.86	19% 98-408 (506)
machinelearned<$100	Otto Virtanenavg 47¢	$41	$50	+$9	31% 257-580 (837)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 35¢	$47.6	$49.64	+$2.04	53% 51-45 (96)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Otto Virtanenavg 71.1¢	$39.1	$45.93	+$6.83	11% 58-451 (509)
PA Pan9X<$100	Otto Virtanenavg 43.3¢	$43.66	$42.57	-$1.09	48% 406-439 (845)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 17¢	$37.15	$37.03	-$0.12	24% 202-628 (830)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 32¢	$16	$8.25	-$7.75	24% 205-634 (839)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 54¢	$5.45	$5.55	+$0.1	34% 162-314 (476)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$5,353.97

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$386.66

Record

54%

1599-1345 (2944)

RN1ARB<$100

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$2,920.28

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

58%

3743-2698 (6441)

Both legs:

Otto Virtanen$2,15043¢+$1.0K

Dino Prizmic$770.2835.2¢+$28.6

VeryLucky888

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$3,006.17

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$86.53

Record

48%

208-228 (436)

MadridTime

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$2,561.2

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$154.51

Record

25%

202-618 (820)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$778.31

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$263.16

Record

51%

3156-3056 (6212)

Both legs:

Otto Virtanen$358.3146¢+$253.16

Dino Prizmic$42021¢+$10

GC-P

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$613.15

Value

$595.65

PnL

-$17.5

Record

16%

64-346 (410)

NM-P

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$542.5

Value

$525

PnL

-$17.5

Record

60%

3439-2335 (5774)

Flaznorp

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$418.29

Value

$480.81

PnL

+$62.52

Record

50%

1378-1396 (2774)

darkumbreon88CTR

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$386.74

Value

$407.83

PnL

+$21.09

Record

61%

891-567 (1458)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$359.31

Value

$353.71

PnL

-$5.6

Record

56%

3774-2944 (6718)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$500.58

Value

$345.71

PnL

+$5.25

Record

48%

721-776 (1497)

Both legs:

Dino Prizmic$262.0856¢+$2.34

Otto Virtanen$81.0443.4¢+$2.91

0xheavy888

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$300.15

Value

$280.14

PnL

-$20.01

Record

55%

94-78 (172)

thirdt1meCTR

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$454.47

Value

$180.83

PnL

-$203.64

Record

33%

54-112 (166)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$156

Value

$152.63

PnL

-$3.38

Record

16%

60-327 (387)

Both legs:

Dino Prizmic$10836¢-$4.5

Otto Virtanen$4864¢+$1.13

LimousinARB<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$295.64

Value

$122.31

PnL

-$162.73

Record

24%

200-640 (840)

Both legs:

Dino Prizmic$224.2758.7¢-$172.84

Otto Virtanen$49.1469.2¢+$10.12

LiquidifierCTR

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$221.39

Value

$110.7

PnL

-$110.7

Record

6-82 (88)

babybellsARB<$100

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$119.14

Value

$110.27

PnL

-$4.87

Record

15%

62-357 (419)

Both legs:

Otto Virtanen$67.6364.2¢+$21.15

Dino Prizmic$48.335.8¢-$26.02

pauleta23<$100

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$63.54

Value

$80.4

PnL

+$16.86

Record

19%

98-408 (506)

machinelearned<$100

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$41

Value

$50

PnL

+$9

Record

31%

257-580 (837)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$47.6

Value

$49.64

PnL

+$2.04

Record

53%

51-45 (96)

BillBenter2026<$100

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$39.1

Value

$45.93

PnL

+$6.83

Record

11%

58-451 (509)

Pan9X<$100

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$43.66

Value

$42.57

PnL

-$1.09

Record

48%

406-439 (845)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$37.15

Value

$37.03

PnL

-$0.12

Record

24%

202-628 (830)

VenusianCTR<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$16

Value

$8.25

PnL

-$7.75

Record

24%

205-634 (839)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$5.45

Value

$5.55

PnL

+$0.1

Record

34%

162-314 (476)

Research grade

NeutralOtto Virtanen at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Otto Virtanen

13 of 20 top traders (65%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Otto Virtanen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDino Prizmic 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOtto Virtanen 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOtto Virtanen 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Otto Virtanen 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Otto Virtanen wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.