Bratislava 2: Eero Vasa vs Vadym Ursu

14 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Eero Vasa (82%) · Eero Vasa at 98¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 9

Eero Vasa98¢Vadym Ursu2¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eero Vasa

Consensus Traders

Eero Vasa 82%

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

85¢ → 98.2¢

+16% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralEero Vasa at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eero Vasa

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Eero Vasa98%

Vadym Ursu2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eero Vasa14 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares6,600

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Vadym Ursu3 traders

Total Value$165.2

Total Shares1,579

Combined PnL-$31.21

Eero Vasa — 82%Vadym Ursu — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Eero Vasaavg 86.4¢	$2.6K	$2.0K	-$630.86	49% 2929-3048 (5977)
FL Flaznorp	Eero Vasaavg 82¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$9.25	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
NO NotJump	Eero Vasaavg 86.7¢	$843.98	$724.94	-$119.04	44% 9904-12850 (22754)
UP UpTheBlues	Eero Vasaavg 92.9¢	$904.86	$593.64	-$311.22	58% 48522-34672 (83194)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Eero Vasaavg 91.4¢	$644.29	$531.34	-$112.95	52% 5708-5272 (10980)
38 38791873984189	Eero Vasaavg 89.3¢	$446.41	$388.79	-$57.62	47% 13029-14600 (27629)
HRTrading	Eero Vasaavg 82¢	$110	$102.69	-$7.32	53% 6378-5764 (12142)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Vadym Ursuavg 8¢	$103.88	$97.39	-$6.49	48% 1153-1269 (2422)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Vadym Ursuavg 24.6¢	$55.66	$57.78	+$2.12	50% 19821-20164 (39985)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Eero Vasaavg 29¢	$31.4	$53.93	+$22.53	54% 5910-4956 (10866)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Eero Vasaavg 94.3¢	$64.04	$45.27	-$17.87	60% 4155-2786 (6941)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Eero Vasaavg 80¢	$33.81	$39.79	+$5.98	52% 14038-12792 (26830)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Eero Vasaavg 50¢	$31	$31.93	+$0.93	61% 13851-8756 (22607)
RN1CTR<$100	Vadym Ursuavg 68¢	$36.87	$10.03	-$26.84	54% 58154-50376 (108530)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Eero Vasaavg 82¢	$8.2	$8.15	-$0.05	51% 1005-965 (1970)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Eero Vasaavg 79¢	$7.9	$7.95	+$0.05	86% 6406-1083 (7489)
TRCM<$100	Eero Vasaavg 80¢	$4	$4.13	+$0.13	55% 3977-3206 (7183)

6512395314597884

Eero Vasa

Invested

$2,648.24

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$630.86

Record

49%

2929-3048 (5977)

Flaznorp

Eero Vasa

Invested

$1,517.81

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$9.25

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

NotJump

Eero Vasa

Invested

$843.98

Value

$724.94

PnL

-$119.04

Record

44%

9904-12850 (22754)

UpTheBlues

Eero Vasa

Invested

$904.86

Value

$593.64

PnL

-$311.22

Record

58%

48522-34672 (83194)

CandleHammerDrums

Eero Vasa

Invested

$644.29

Value

$531.34

PnL

-$112.95

Record

52%

5708-5272 (10980)

38791873984189

Eero Vasa

Invested

$446.41

Value

$388.79

PnL

-$57.62

Record

47%

13029-14600 (27629)

HRTrading

Eero Vasa

Invested

$110

Value

$102.69

PnL

-$7.32

Record

53%

6378-5764 (12142)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Vadym Ursu

Invested

$103.88

Value

$97.39

PnL

-$6.49

Record

48%

1153-1269 (2422)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Vadym Ursu

Invested

$55.66

Value

$57.78

PnL

+$2.12

Record

50%

19821-20164 (39985)

Eulhunter<$100

Eero Vasa

Invested

$31.4

Value

$53.93

PnL

+$22.53

Record

54%

5910-4956 (10866)

thestingsnake<$100

Eero Vasa

Invested

$64.04

Value

$45.27

PnL

-$17.87

Record

60%

4155-2786 (6941)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Eero Vasa

Invested

$33.81

Value

$39.79

PnL

+$5.98

Record

52%

14038-12792 (26830)

Lilybaeum<$100

Eero Vasa

Invested

$31

Value

$31.93

PnL

+$0.93

Record

61%

13851-8756 (22607)

RN1CTR<$100

Vadym Ursu

Invested

$36.87

Value

$10.03

PnL

-$26.84

Record

54%

58154-50376 (108530)

ferdinand2<$100

Eero Vasa

Invested

$8.2

Value

$8.15

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

1005-965 (1970)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Eero Vasa

Invested

$7.9

Value

$7.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

86%

6406-1083 (7489)

TRCM<$100

Eero Vasa

Invested

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$0.13

Record

55%

3977-3206 (7183)

Research grade

NeutralEero Vasa at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Eero Vasa

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eero Vasa wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.2%

98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.