Lima: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Tomas Barrios
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Tomas Barrios (80%) · Tomas Barrios at 63¢ · $535 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Tomas Barrios
5
Tomas Barrios 80%
$535.08
$5.13
66¢ → 63¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralTomas Barrios at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Tomas Barriosavg 66¢ | $208.58 | $210.16 | +$1.58 | 48% 733-802 (1535) |
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR | Juan Pablo Varillasavg 33.9¢ | $123.8 | $135.05 | +$11.25 | 1% 2-197 (199) |
FL Flaznorp | Tomas Barriosavg 66¢ | $133.57 | $127.76 | -$5.82 | 50% 1383-1403 (2786) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Tomas Barriosavg 65.6¢ | $35.14 | $34.13 | -$1 | 48% 407-442 (849) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Tomas Barriosavg 66¢ | $28.86 | $27.99 | -$0.87 | 29% 157-376 (533) |
Invested
$208.58
Value
$210.16
PnL
+$1.58
Record
48%
733-802 (1535)
Invested
$123.8
Value
$135.05
PnL
+$11.25
Record
1%
2-197 (199)
Invested
$133.57
Value
$127.76
PnL
-$5.82
Record
50%
1383-1403 (2786)
Invested
$35.14
Value
$34.13
PnL
-$1
Record
48%
407-442 (849)
Invested
$28.86
Value
$27.99
PnL
-$0.87
Record
29%
157-376 (533)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.