Costa do Sauipe: Rafael Tosetto vs Franco Roncadelli

18 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Franco Roncadelli (69%) · Franco Roncadelli at 89¢ · $79K held · ends Nov 10

Rafael Tosetto11¢Franco Roncadelli89¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Franco Roncadelli

Consensus Traders

Franco Roncadelli 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$78.7K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Entry

87.2¢ → 89¢

+2% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralFranco Roncadelli at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Franco Roncadelli

18 of 26 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rafael Tosetto11%

Franco Roncadelli89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Franco Roncadelli18 traders

Total Value$73.1K

Total Shares80,883

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Rafael Tosetto8 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares32,356

Combined PnL+$499.01

Franco Roncadelli — 69%Rafael Tosetto — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Franco Roncadelli. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFranco Roncadelli 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpFranco Roncadelli 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrRafael Tosetto 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedFranco Roncadelli 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Franco Roncadelli 73% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Franco Roncadelliavg 89.6¢	$23.2K	$23.1K	-$146.28	52% 847-783 (1630)
LI LightParadox	Franco Roncadelliavg 88.6¢	$14.6K	$14.7K	+$71.52	53% 921-802 (1723)
LI Limousin	Franco Roncadelliavg 89.5¢	$10.9K	$10.8K	-$53.65	56% 959-749 (1708)
RN1	Franco Roncadelliavg 77.1¢	$8.3K	$9.5K	+$1.2K	53% 59089-51396 (110485)
VE Venusian	Franco Roncadelliavg 87.5¢	$6.7K	$6.7K	+$91.74	53% 928-828 (1756)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Rafael Tosettoavg 9.8¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$546.87	51% 4510-4384 (8894)
NO NotJump	Franco Roncadelliavg 94.2¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$31.69	43% 10231-13295 (23526)
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 86.2¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$22.49	52% 6722-6264 (12986)
└ Franco Roncadelli leg	Franco Roncadelliavg 86.2¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$48.89
└ Rafael Tosetto leg	Rafael Tosettoavg 12.9¢	$490.23	$418.85	-$71.37
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Franco Roncadelliavg 81.8¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$153.51	46% 1309-1528 (2837)
38 38791873984189	Franco Roncadelliavg 85.2¢	$3.3K	$1.8K	+$109.19	48% 14412-15920 (30332)
TH thestingsnake	Franco Roncadelliavg 85.1¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$75.08	60% 4234-2832 (7066)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Rafael Tosettoavg 11.3¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$29.02	50% 20222-20549 (40771)
tradecraft	Franco Roncadelliavg 76.9¢	$289.54	$335.05	+$45.51	51% 6228-5972 (12200)
poshposh	Franco Roncadelliavg 89.3¢	$267.9	$267	-$0.9	57% 11890-8983 (20873)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Franco Roncadelliavg 91.5¢	$102.61	$97.87	-$4.74	52% 14128-12900 (27028)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 90.7¢	$97.01	$95.23	-$1.78	54% 6063-5072 (11135)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Rafael Tosettoavg 11.6¢	$35.36	$33.55	-$1.8	47% 10579-11844 (22423)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Rafael Tosettoavg 23.9¢	$32.48	$14.96	-$17.52	50% 4090-4063 (8153)
VeryLucky888<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 86¢	$12.9	$13.35	+$0.45	58% 44668-32527 (77195)
TRCM<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 92.3¢	$5	$5	-$0	55% 4006-3232 (7238)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 85¢	$4.25	$4.45	+$0.2	51% 23440-22208 (45648)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 90.5¢	$4.52	$4.45	-$0.07	57% 18992-14056 (33048)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Franco Roncadelliavg 86¢	$4.3	$4.45	+$0.15	52% 8478-7730 (16208)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Rafael Tosettoavg 16.5¢	$1.65	$1.1	-$0.55	65% 5090-2761 (7851)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Rafael Tosettoavg 6.1¢	$0.61	$1.1	+$0.49	48% 5299-5685 (10984)

MadridTime

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$23,238.82

Value

$23.1K

PnL

-$146.28

Record

52%

847-783 (1630)

LightParadox

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$14,604.95

Value

$14.7K

PnL

+$71.52

Record

53%

921-802 (1723)

Limousin

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$10,852.48

Value

$10.8K

PnL

-$53.65

Record

56%

959-749 (1708)

RN1

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$8,296.34

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

53%

59089-51396 (110485)

Venusian

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$6,652.09

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$91.74

Record

53%

928-828 (1756)

6512395314597884CTR

Rafael Tosetto

Invested

$2,268.53

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$546.87

Record

51%

4510-4384 (8894)

NotJump

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$2,078.23

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$31.69

Record

43%

10231-13295 (23526)

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$1,985.2

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$22.49

Record

52%

6722-6264 (12986)

Both legs:

Franco Roncadelli$1,494.9786.2¢+$48.89

Rafael Tosetto$490.2312.9¢-$71.37

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$1,738.18

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$153.51

Record

46%

1309-1528 (2837)

38791873984189

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$3,281.8

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$109.19

Record

48%

14412-15920 (30332)

thestingsnake

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$1,612.9

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$75.08

Record

60%

4234-2832 (7066)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Rafael Tosetto

Invested

$1,254.97

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$29.02

Record

50%

20222-20549 (40771)

tradecraft

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$289.54

Value

$335.05

PnL

+$45.51

Record

51%

6228-5972 (12200)

poshposh

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$267.9

Value

$267

PnL

-$0.9

Record

57%

11890-8983 (20873)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$102.61

Value

$97.87

PnL

-$4.74

Record

52%

14128-12900 (27028)

Eulhunter<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$97.01

Value

$95.23

PnL

-$1.78

Record

54%

6063-5072 (11135)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Rafael Tosetto

Invested

$35.36

Value

$33.55

PnL

-$1.8

Record

47%

10579-11844 (22423)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Rafael Tosetto

Invested

$32.48

Value

$14.96

PnL

-$17.52

Record

50%

4090-4063 (8153)

VeryLucky888<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$12.9

Value

$13.35

PnL

+$0.45

Record

58%

44668-32527 (77195)

TRCM<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

4006-3232 (7238)

Flaznorp<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$4.25

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

23440-22208 (45648)

BillBenter2026<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$4.52

Value

$4.45

PnL

-$0.07

Record

57%

18992-14056 (33048)

ameisgoat11<$100

Franco Roncadelli

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$0.15

Record

52%

8478-7730 (16208)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Rafael Tosetto

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$0.55

Record

65%

5090-2761 (7851)

smithagentCTR<$100

Rafael Tosetto

Invested

$0.61

Value

$1.1

PnL

+$0.49

Record

48%

5299-5685 (10984)

Research grade

NeutralFranco Roncadelli at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Franco Roncadelli

18 of 26 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Franco Roncadelli. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFranco Roncadelli 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpFranco Roncadelli 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrRafael Tosetto 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedFranco Roncadelli 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Franco Roncadelli 73% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Franco Roncadelli wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.