Brisbane 3: Bernard Tomic vs Omar Jasika
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Bernard Tomic (50%) · Bernard Tomic at 55¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Bernard Tomic
4
Bernard Tomic 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
-$24.32
56.6¢ → 54.5¢
-4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralBernard Tomic at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Bernard Tomic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Bernard Tomicavg 57¢ | $835.73 | $806.45 | -$29.28 | 35% 171-317 (488) |
 0xheavy888ARB<$100 | Omar Jasikaavg 43¢ | $276 | $276 | -$0 | 57% 103-79 (182) |
| └ Omar Jasika leg | Omar Jasikaavg 43¢ | $193.5 | $193.5 | -$0 | |
| └ Bernard Tomic leg | Bernard Tomicavg 55¢ | $82.5 | $82.5 | +$0 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Omar Jasikaavg 43.2¢ | $146.15 | $145.68 | -$0.47 | 50% 1387-1404 (2791) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Bernard Tomicavg 52¢ | $80.93 | $64.6 | +$4.08 | 48% 218-232 (450) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Omar Jasikaavg 43.3¢ | $28.3 | $29.64 | +$1.35 | 30% 160-377 (537) |
Invested
$835.73
Value
$806.45
PnL
-$29.28
Record
35%
171-317 (488)
0xheavy888ARB<$100Invested
$276
Value
$276
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
103-79 (182)
Both legs:
Invested
$146.15
Value
$145.68
PnL
-$0.47
Record
50%
1387-1404 (2791)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$80.93
Value
$64.6
PnL
+$4.08
Record
48%
218-232 (450)
Invested
$28.3
Value
$29.64
PnL
+$1.35
Record
30%
160-377 (537)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.