Brisbane 3: Bernard Tomic vs Blake Ellis

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Bernard Tomic (86%) · Bernard Tomic at 55¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 16

Bernard Tomic55¢Blake Ellis45¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Bernard Tomic

Consensus Traders

Bernard Tomic 86%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Smart Money Entry

64.5¢ → 55¢

-15% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

Research candidateBernard Tomic at 55%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bernard Tomic

6 of 7 top traders (86%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bernard Tomic55%

Blake Ellis45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Blake Ellis1 trader

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares6,200

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Bernard Tomic6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,324

Combined PnL-$351.67

Blake Ellis — 14%Bernard Tomic — 86%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Blake Ellisavg 14.1¢	$876.73	$3.1K	+$2.2K	48% 216-238 (454)
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	Bernard Tomicavg 86.1¢	$2.7K	$2.2K	-$518.96	46% 33444-38932 (72376)
└ Bernard Tomic leg	Bernard Tomicavg 86.1¢	$2.1K	$1.2K	-$898.58
└ Blake Ellis leg	Blake Ellisavg 29.7¢	$555.13	$934.74	+$379.61
LI LimousinARB<$100	Bernard Tomicavg 85.1¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$370.73	48% 2283-2446 (4729)
└ Bernard Tomic leg	Bernard Tomicavg 85.1¢	$1.3K	$743	-$508.49
└ Blake Ellis leg	Blake Ellisavg 38.8¢	$498.49	$636.25	+$137.76
RN1	Bernard Tomicavg 51.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$11.3	53% 70327-61884 (132211)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Bernard Tomicavg 57.1¢	$651.28	$780.65	+$129.37	52% 47498-44700 (92198)
└ Bernard Tomic leg	Bernard Tomicavg 57.1¢	$539.75	$506.17	-$33.59
└ Blake Ellis leg	Blake Ellisavg 18.9¢	$111.53	$274.48	+$162.95
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Bernard Tomicavg 71.2¢	$820.56	$421.84	+$23.67	53% 851-753 (1604)
└ Bernard Tomic leg	Bernard Tomicavg 71.2¢	$296.13	$230.72	-$72.26
└ Blake Ellis leg	Blake Ellisavg 27¢	$115.76	$191.11	+$95.92
machinelearnedARB<$100	Bernard Tomicavg 65.6¢	$359.26	$387.25	+$27.99	54% 10229-8705 (18934)
└ Blake Ellis leg	Blake Ellisavg 33.8¢	$168.75	$231.99	+$63.24
└ Bernard Tomic leg	Bernard Tomicavg 65.6¢	$190.51	$155.26	-$35.25
TH thestingsnake	Bernard Tomicavg 86.6¢	$724.24	$354.03	-$158.25	60% 4601-3105 (7706)
LI LightParadox	Bernard Tomicavg 77.3¢	$474.88	$342.1	-$132.78	47% 2266-2532 (4798)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Bernard Tomicavg 69.2¢	$189.58	$220.76	+$31.18	47% 2196-2511 (4707)
└ Blake Ellis leg	Blake Ellisavg 29.2¢	$92.76	$144.46	+$51.7
└ Bernard Tomic leg	Bernard Tomicavg 69.2¢	$96.82	$76.3	-$20.52
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Blake Ellisavg 38.1¢	$159.28	$205.9	+$46.62	53% 6781-5933 (12714)
└ Blake Ellis leg	Blake Ellisavg 38.1¢	$99.71	$116.54	+$16.84
└ Bernard Tomic leg	Bernard Tomicavg 37¢	$59.57	$89.36	+$29.79
VE Venusian	Bernard Tomicavg 82.1¢	$205.68	$162.6	-$43.08	47% 2268-2572 (4840)
VeryLucky888<$100	Bernard Tomicavg 62¢	$27.9	$22.5	-$5.4	59% 52520-37212 (89732)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Bernard Tomicavg 58¢	$13.24	$12.39	-$0.85	50% 23521-23532 (47053)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Blake Ellis

Invested

$876.73

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

48%

216-238 (454)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

Bernard Tomic

Invested

$2,698.65

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$518.96

Record

46%

33444-38932 (72376)

Both legs:

Bernard Tomic$2,143.5386.1¢-$898.58

Blake Ellis$555.1329.7¢+$379.61

LimousinARB<$100

Bernard Tomic

Invested

$1,749.98

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$370.73

Record

48%

2283-2446 (4729)

Both legs:

Bernard Tomic$1,251.4985.1¢-$508.49

Blake Ellis$498.4938.8¢+$137.76

RN1

Bernard Tomic

Invested

$1,102.6

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$11.3

Record

53%

70327-61884 (132211)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Bernard Tomic

Invested

$651.28

Value

$780.65

PnL

+$129.37

Record

52%

47498-44700 (92198)

Both legs:

Bernard Tomic$539.7557.1¢-$33.59

Blake Ellis$111.5318.9¢+$162.95

1lovejumpARB<$100

Bernard Tomic

Invested

$820.56

Value

$421.84

PnL

+$23.67

Record

53%

851-753 (1604)

Both legs:

Bernard Tomic$296.1371.2¢-$72.26

Blake Ellis$115.7627¢+$95.92

machinelearnedARB<$100

Bernard Tomic

Invested

$359.26

Value

$387.25

PnL

+$27.99

Record

54%

10229-8705 (18934)

Both legs:

Blake Ellis$168.7533.8¢+$63.24

Bernard Tomic$190.5165.6¢-$35.25

thestingsnake

Bernard Tomic

Invested

$724.24

Value

$354.03

PnL

-$158.25

Record

60%

4601-3105 (7706)

LightParadox

Bernard Tomic

Invested

$474.88

Value

$342.1

PnL

-$132.78

Record

47%

2266-2532 (4798)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Bernard Tomic

Invested

$189.58

Value

$220.76

PnL

+$31.18

Record

47%

2196-2511 (4707)

Both legs:

Blake Ellis$92.7629.2¢+$51.7

Bernard Tomic$96.8269.2¢-$20.52

EulhunterARB<$100

Blake Ellis

Invested

$159.28

Value

$205.9

PnL

+$46.62

Record

53%

6781-5933 (12714)

Both legs:

Blake Ellis$99.7138.1¢+$16.84

Bernard Tomic$59.5737¢+$29.79

Venusian

Bernard Tomic

Invested

$205.68

Value

$162.6

PnL

-$43.08

Record

47%

2268-2572 (4840)

VeryLucky888<$100

Bernard Tomic

Invested

$27.9

Value

$22.5

PnL

-$5.4

Record

59%

52520-37212 (89732)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Bernard Tomic

Invested

$13.24

Value

$12.39

PnL

-$0.85

Record

50%

23521-23532 (47053)

Research grade

Research candidateBernard Tomic at 55%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bernard Tomic

6 of 7 top traders (86%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bernard Tomic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.