Lima: Miguel Tobon vs Henrique Rocha

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Henrique Rocha (50%) · Henrique Rocha at 56¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 16

Miguel Tobon45¢Henrique Rocha55¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Henrique Rocha

Consensus Traders

Henrique Rocha 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

-$114.04

Smart Money Entry

65.9¢ → 55.5¢

-16% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralHenrique Rocha at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Henrique Rocha

6 of 12 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Miguel Tobon45%

Henrique Rocha56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Miguel Tobon6 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares9,133

Combined PnL+$573.98

Henrique Rocha6 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares6,391

Combined PnL-$688.02

Miguel Tobon — 50%Henrique Rocha — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadoxCTR	Miguel Tobonavg 35.9¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$334.22	26% 87-252 (339)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Henrique Rochaavg 63¢	$2.6K	$2.1K	-$490.1	30% 105-246 (351)
WH whosayCTR	Miguel Tobonavg 37¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	+$251.88	— 2-1 (3)
RN1	Henrique Rochaavg 68¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$170.82	54% 233-201 (434)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Henrique Rochaavg 73.5¢	$1.1K	$852.77	-$250.74	49% 383-404 (787)
└ Henrique Rocha leg	Henrique Rochaavg 73.5¢	$810.98	$557.26	-$253.72
└ Miguel Tobon leg	Miguel Tobonavg 49¢	$292.53	$295.52	+$2.99
FL Flaznorp	Henrique Rochaavg 77¢	$498.24	$472.36	-$25.88	52% 242-224 (466)
LI LimousinCTR	Miguel Tobonavg 49.8¢	$267.84	$271.73	+$3.89	24% 90-282 (372)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Miguel Tobonavg 46.1¢	$192.71	$152.11	-$15.54	25% 37-109 (146)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Henrique Rochaavg 61.5¢	$71.11	$67.42	-$3.69	39% 41-64 (105)
└ Henrique Rocha leg	Henrique Rochaavg 61.5¢	$48.64	$37.55	-$11.08
└ Miguel Tobon leg	Miguel Tobonavg 39.5¢	$22.47	$29.86	+$7.39
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Miguel Tobonavg 45¢	$50.4	$49.84	-$0.56	55% 34-28 (62)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Henrique Rochaavg 76.8¢	$13.84	$13.15	-$0.69	32% 68-143 (211)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Miguel Tobonavg 46¢	$9.2	$9.3	+$0.1	44% 148-190 (338)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Henrique Rochaavg 56.5¢	$5.65	$5.35	-$0.3	14% 30-180 (210)
0xheavy888<$100	Henrique Rochaavg 78¢	$3.55	$3.32	-$0.23	69% 29-13 (42)

LightParadoxCTR

Miguel Tobon

Invested

$1,804.25

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$334.22

Record

26%

87-252 (339)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Henrique Rocha

Invested

$2,605.76

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$490.1

Record

30%

105-246 (351)

whosayCTR

Miguel Tobon

Invested

$1,480

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$251.88

Record

—

2-1 (3)

RN1

Henrique Rocha

Invested

$1,389.3

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$170.82

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Henrique Rocha

Invested

$1,103.51

Value

$852.77

PnL

-$250.74

Record

49%

383-404 (787)

Both legs:

Henrique Rocha$810.9873.5¢-$253.72

Miguel Tobon$292.5349¢+$2.99

Flaznorp

Henrique Rocha

Invested

$498.24

Value

$472.36

PnL

-$25.88

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

LimousinCTR

Miguel Tobon

Invested

$267.84

Value

$271.73

PnL

+$3.89

Record

24%

90-282 (372)

thestingsnakeCTR

Miguel Tobon

Invested

$192.71

Value

$152.11

PnL

-$15.54

Record

25%

37-109 (146)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Henrique Rocha

Invested

$71.11

Value

$67.42

PnL

-$3.69

Record

39%

41-64 (105)

Both legs:

Henrique Rocha$48.6461.5¢-$11.08

Miguel Tobon$22.4739.5¢+$7.39

EulhunterCTR<$100

Miguel Tobon

Invested

$50.4

Value

$49.84

PnL

-$0.56

Record

55%

34-28 (62)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Henrique Rocha

Invested

$13.84

Value

$13.15

PnL

-$0.69

Record

32%

68-143 (211)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Miguel Tobon

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

44%

148-190 (338)

BillBenter2026<$100

Henrique Rocha

Invested

$5.65

Value

$5.35

PnL

-$0.3

Record

14%

30-180 (210)

0xheavy888<$100

Henrique Rocha

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.32

PnL

-$0.23

Record

69%

29-13 (42)

Research grade

NeutralHenrique Rocha at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Henrique Rocha

6 of 12 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Henrique Rocha wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.