BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Alexander Shevchenko
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Alexander Shevchenko (33%) · Alexander Shevchenko at 54¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 19
⚖️
Neutral
Alexander Shevchenko
6
Alexander Shevchenko 33%
$6.4K
-$4.83
55¢ → 53.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralAlexander Shevchenko at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Alexander Shevchenko. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | Alexander Shevchenkoavg 55¢ | $3.6K | $3.5K | -$98.1 | 1% 5-496 (501) |
LI LimousinCTR | Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 45¢ | $2.5K | $2.6K | +$83.69 | 30% 402-921 (1323) |
IC ic4creamCTR | Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 45¢ | $159.66 | $164.99 | +$5.32 | 2% 11-448 (459) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 45¢ | $115.48 | $119.35 | +$3.87 | 31% 412-897 (1309) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 45¢ | $12.6 | $12.88 | +$0.28 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Alexander Shevchenkoavg 53¢ | $10.6 | $10.7 | +$0.1 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
Invested
$3,596.99
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$98.1
Record
1%
5-496 (501)
Invested
$2,510.82
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$83.69
Record
30%
402-921 (1323)
Invested
$159.66
Value
$164.99
PnL
+$5.32
Record
2%
11-448 (459)
Invested
$115.48
Value
$119.35
PnL
+$3.87
Record
31%
412-897 (1309)
Invested
$12.6
Value
$12.88
PnL
+$0.28
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$10.6
Value
$10.7
PnL
+$0.1
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.