BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jaume Munar

11 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Jaume Munar (61%) · Jaume Munar at 68¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 15

Thiago Agustin Tirante33¢Jaume Munar67¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jaume Munar

Consensus Traders

Jaume Munar 61%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.4K

Combined PnL

$2.5K

Smart Money Entry

53.2¢ → 67.5¢

+27% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralJaume Munar at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jaume Munar

11 of 18 top traders (61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Thiago Agustin Tirante33%

Jaume Munar68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jaume Munar11 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares17,726

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Thiago Agustin Tirante7 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares5,724

Combined PnL+$16

Jaume Munar — 61%Thiago Agustin Tirante — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Jaume Munaravg 49.5¢	$5.2K	$7.1K	+$1.9K	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Jaume Munaravg 58¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$175.74	51% 5614-5443 (11057)
└ Jaume Munar leg	Jaume Munaravg 58¢	$2.3K	$2.6K	+$260
└ Thiago Agustin Tirante leg	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 40¢	$749.06	$664.79	-$84.27
38 38791873984189	Jaume Munaravg 56.3¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	+$207.55	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
VeryLucky888CTR	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 40¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$90	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
FL Flaznorp	Jaume Munaravg 61.2¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$117.19	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
VE Venusian	Jaume Munaravg 59¢	$999.33	$1.1K	+$95.52	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Jaume Munaravg 58.7¢	$880	$1.0K	+$132.5	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Jaume Munaravg 65.4¢	$757.09	$685.56	-$47.44	53% 848-749 (1597)
└ Jaume Munar leg	Jaume Munaravg 65.4¢	$372.09	$384.29	+$12.2
└ Thiago Agustin Tirante leg	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 38.5¢	$356.89	$301.27	-$59.63
LI LimousinCTR	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 36¢	$621	$560.63	-$60.38	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
0xheavy888CTR	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 40¢	$163.45	$165.49	+$2.04	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
EU Eulhunter	Jaume Munaravg 61.9¢	$104.13	$112.81	+$8.67	53% 6776-5929 (12705)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 35.9¢	$109.6	$99.13	-$10.47	60% 4593-3091 (7684)
EF efntrick<$100	Jaume Munaravg 56.5¢	$67.8	$78.6	+$10.8	49% 3711-3940 (7651)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 35¢	$77	$71.5	-$5.5	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Jaume Munaravg 59¢	$26.31	$26.53	+$0.22	50% 5167-5068 (10235)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Jaume Munaravg 61¢	$14.7	$15.47	+$0.77	52% 6029-5557 (11586)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 31.6¢	$14.28	$14.68	+$0.4	54% 10221-8698 (18919)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Jaume Munaravg 67¢	$11.87	$11.95	+$0.09	53% 15441-13720 (29161)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 41¢	$8.2	$8.1	-$0.1	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Jaume Munaravg 59¢	$4.72	$5.4	+$0.68	57% 20227-15044 (35271)

RN1

Jaume Munar

Invested

$5,229.09

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Jaume Munar

Invested

$3,069.05

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$175.74

Record

51%

5614-5443 (11057)

Both legs:

Jaume Munar$2,32058¢+$260

Thiago Agustin Tirante$749.0640¢-$84.27

38791873984189

Jaume Munar

Invested

$1,566.14

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$207.55

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

VeryLucky888CTR

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Invested

$1,199.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$90

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

Flaznorp

Jaume Munar

Invested

$1,140.96

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$117.19

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Venusian

Jaume Munar

Invested

$999.33

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$95.52

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Jaume Munar

Invested

$880

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$132.5

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Jaume Munar

Invested

$757.09

Value

$685.56

PnL

-$47.44

Record

53%

848-749 (1597)

Both legs:

Jaume Munar$372.0965.4¢+$12.2

Thiago Agustin Tirante$356.8938.5¢-$59.63

LimousinCTR

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Invested

$621

Value

$560.63

PnL

-$60.38

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

0xheavy888CTR

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Invested

$163.45

Value

$165.49

PnL

+$2.04

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

Eulhunter

Jaume Munar

Invested

$104.13

Value

$112.81

PnL

+$8.67

Record

53%

6776-5929 (12705)

thestingsnakeCTR

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Invested

$109.6

Value

$99.13

PnL

-$10.47

Record

60%

4593-3091 (7684)

efntrick<$100

Jaume Munar

Invested

$67.8

Value

$78.6

PnL

+$10.8

Record

49%

3711-3940 (7651)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Invested

$77

Value

$71.5

PnL

-$5.5

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Jaume Munar

Invested

$26.31

Value

$26.53

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

5167-5068 (10235)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Jaume Munar

Invested

$14.7

Value

$15.47

PnL

+$0.77

Record

52%

6029-5557 (11586)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Invested

$14.28

Value

$14.68

PnL

+$0.4

Record

54%

10221-8698 (18919)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Jaume Munar

Invested

$11.87

Value

$11.95

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

15441-13720 (29161)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Invested

$8.2

Value

$8.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

BillBenter2026<$100

Jaume Munar

Invested

$4.72

Value

$5.4

PnL

+$0.68

Record

57%

20227-15044 (35271)

Research grade

NeutralJaume Munar at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jaume Munar

11 of 18 top traders (61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jaume Munar wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.