Kobe: Yusuke Takahashi vs Kosuke Ogura

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yusuke Takahashi (55%) · Yusuke Takahashi at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22

Yusuke Takahashi95¢Kosuke Ogura5¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yusuke Takahashi

Consensus Traders

Yusuke Takahashi 55%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$213.56

Smart Money Entry

82.7¢ → 94.5¢

+14% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYusuke Takahashi at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yusuke Takahashi

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yusuke Takahashi95%

Kosuke Ogura6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yusuke Takahashi6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,168

Combined PnL+$198.58

Kosuke Ogura5 traders

Total Value$400.8

Total Shares2,159

Combined PnL+$14.98

Yusuke Takahashi — 55%Kosuke Ogura — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yusuke Takahashiavg 83.1¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$202.35	49% 4509-4779 (9288)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Kosuke Oguraavg 17¢	$263.79	$279.3	+$15.52	50% 2776-2756 (5532)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Yusuke Takahashiavg 81.5¢	$237.03	$219.23	-$17.8	56% 4133-3235 (7368)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yusuke Takahashiavg 82¢	$75.76	$87.36	+$11.6	48% 2431-2662 (5093)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Yusuke Takahashiavg 78¢	$46.75	$42.65	-$0.19	34% 232-441 (673)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Kosuke Oguraavg 17¢	$40.81	$42.01	+$1.2	48% 3772-4126 (7898)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Kosuke Oguraavg 17.5¢	$36.72	$37.81	+$1.09	48% 346-375 (721)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Kosuke Oguraavg 31¢	$31.12	$31.12	-$0	49% 593-624 (1217)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Yusuke Takahashiavg 79.4¢	$13.5	$16.06	+$2.56	31% 279-609 (888)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Kosuke Oguraavg 23.5¢	$13.39	$10.56	-$2.83	38% 1289-2093 (3382)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Yusuke Takahashiavg 76¢	$7.61	$7.66	+$0.05	83% 921-190 (1111)

Flaznorp

Yusuke Takahashi

Invested

$1,479.07

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$202.35

Record

49%

4509-4779 (9288)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Kosuke Ogura

Invested

$263.79

Value

$279.3

PnL

+$15.52

Record

50%

2776-2756 (5532)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Yusuke Takahashi

Invested

$237.03

Value

$219.23

PnL

-$17.8

Record

56%

4133-3235 (7368)

ferdinand2<$100

Yusuke Takahashi

Invested

$75.76

Value

$87.36

PnL

+$11.6

Record

48%

2431-2662 (5093)

thestingsnake<$100

Yusuke Takahashi

Invested

$46.75

Value

$42.65

PnL

-$0.19

Record

34%

232-441 (673)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Kosuke Ogura

Invested

$40.81

Value

$42.01

PnL

+$1.2

Record

48%

3772-4126 (7898)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Kosuke Ogura

Invested

$36.72

Value

$37.81

PnL

+$1.09

Record

48%

346-375 (721)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Kosuke Ogura

Invested

$31.12

Value

$31.12

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

593-624 (1217)

BillBenter2026<$100

Yusuke Takahashi

Invested

$13.5

Value

$16.06

PnL

+$2.56

Record

31%

279-609 (888)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Kosuke Ogura

Invested

$13.39

Value

$10.56

PnL

-$2.83

Record

38%

1289-2093 (3382)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Yusuke Takahashi

Invested

$7.61

Value

$7.66

PnL

+$0.05

Record

83%

921-190 (1111)

Research grade

NeutralYusuke Takahashi at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yusuke Takahashi

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yusuke Takahashi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.