Brisbane 3: Dane Sweeny vs Anton Shepp

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Dane Sweeny (67%) · Dane Sweeny at 100¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 17

Dane Sweeny>99¢Anton Shepp<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dane Sweeny

Consensus Traders

Dane Sweeny 67%

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

-$691.48

Smart Money Entry

81.8¢ → 99.7¢

+22% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralDane Sweeny at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dane Sweeny

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Dane Sweeny100%

Anton Shepp0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dane Sweeny12 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares9,270

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Anton Shepp6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares8,053

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Dane Sweeny — 67%Anton Shepp — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Dane Sweenyavg 79.9¢	$4.9K	$6.1K	+$1.2K	48% 130-141 (271)
FL Flaznorp	Dane Sweenyavg 90.2¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$94.72	52% 271-247 (518)
VE VenusianCTR	Anton Sheppavg 29.4¢	$2.5K	$798.31	$-1.7K	26% 97-281 (378)
TH thirdt1me	Dane Sweenyavg 84.6¢	$784.75	$785.84	+$128.42	0% 0-36 (36)
TH thestingsnake	Dane Sweenyavg 84.5¢	$203.32	$236.95	+$33.63	26% 40-112 (152)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Dane Sweenyavg 86.8¢	$190.09	$201.25	+$11.24	39% 44-69 (113)
6D 0x6d49...e00a	Dane Sweenyavg 65.8¢	$119.4	$165.13	+$45.73	0% 0-94 (94)
OM omnibus-076daa	Dane Sweenyavg 69¢	$132.99	$132	-$0.99	36% 86-155 (241)
38 38791873984189	Dane Sweenyavg 97¢	$176.58	$114.03	-$63.1	49% 398-410 (808)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Anton Sheppavg 31.6¢	$76.75	$71.69	-$5.06	55% 37-30 (67)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Anton Sheppavg 16¢	$72.69	$70.42	-$2.27	30% 108-250 (358)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Anton Sheppavg 19.6¢	$395.84	$62.21	-$208.05	27% 100-275 (375)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Anton Sheppavg 32.2¢	$50.82	$48.32	-$2.5	48% 179-191 (370)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Dane Sweenyavg 80.7¢	$16.15	$19.67	+$3.52	16% 34-184 (218)
LI LightParadox<$100	Dane Sweenyavg 97.1¢	$19.56	$16.97	-$2.59	28% 104-265 (369)
VI vibing123<$100	Dane Sweenyavg 67¢	$20	$13.6	+$0.2	2% 7-301 (308)
machinelearned<$100	Dane Sweenyavg 98¢	$14.6	$10.21	-$4.39	44% 161-208 (369)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Anton Sheppavg 30¢	$1.13	$1.16	+$0.04	50% 76-76 (152)

6512395314597884

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$4,900.91

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

48%

130-141 (271)

Flaznorp

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$1,431.39

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$94.72

Record

52%

271-247 (518)

VenusianCTR

Anton Shepp

Invested

$2,500.78

Value

$798.31

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

26%

97-281 (378)

thirdt1me

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$784.75

Value

$785.84

PnL

+$128.42

Record

0-36 (36)

thestingsnake

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$203.32

Value

$236.95

PnL

+$33.63

Record

26%

40-112 (152)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$190.09

Value

$201.25

PnL

+$11.24

Record

39%

44-69 (113)

0x6d49...e00a

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$119.4

Value

$165.13

PnL

+$45.73

Record

0-94 (94)

omnibus-076daa

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$132.99

Value

$132

PnL

-$0.99

Record

36%

86-155 (241)

38791873984189

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$176.58

Value

$114.03

PnL

-$63.1

Record

49%

398-410 (808)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Anton Shepp

Invested

$76.75

Value

$71.69

PnL

-$5.06

Record

55%

37-30 (67)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Anton Shepp

Invested

$72.69

Value

$70.42

PnL

-$2.27

Record

30%

108-250 (358)

MadridTimeCTR

Anton Shepp

Invested

$395.84

Value

$62.21

PnL

-$208.05

Record

27%

100-275 (375)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Anton Shepp

Invested

$50.82

Value

$48.32

PnL

-$2.5

Record

48%

179-191 (370)

BillBenter2026<$100

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$16.15

Value

$19.67

PnL

+$3.52

Record

16%

34-184 (218)

LightParadox<$100

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$19.56

Value

$16.97

PnL

-$2.59

Record

28%

104-265 (369)

vibing123<$100

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$20

Value

$13.6

PnL

+$0.2

Record

7-301 (308)

machinelearned<$100

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$14.6

Value

$10.21

PnL

-$4.39

Record

44%

161-208 (369)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Anton Shepp

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.16

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

76-76 (152)

Research grade

NeutralDane Sweeny at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Dane Sweeny

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dane Sweeny wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.