Brisbane 3: Dane Sweeny vs Casey Hoole

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Dane Sweeny (53%) · Dane Sweeny at 82¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 18

Dane Sweeny82¢Casey Hoole18¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dane Sweeny

Consensus Traders

Dane Sweeny 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

$53.14

Smart Money Entry

86.9¢ → 81.5¢

-6% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDane Sweeny at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dane Sweeny

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Dane Sweeny82%

Casey Hoole19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dane Sweeny8 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares8,383

Combined PnL-$389.06

Casey Hoole7 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares14,337

Combined PnL+$442.2

Dane Sweeny — 53%Casey Hoole — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on Dane Sweeny. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Casey Hoole) and the top 1000 (14 on Dane Sweeny) disagree here.

sharpDane Sweeny 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCasey Hoole 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedCasey Hoole 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Dane Sweeny 57% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Dane Sweenyavg 87¢	$6.6K	$6.1K	-$364.97	31% 412-897 (1309)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Casey Hooleavg 12.9¢	$1.4K	$1.9K	+$453.52	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
TH thirdt1me	Dane Sweenyavg 89¢	$534	$498	-$36	43% 125-167 (292)
VE VenusianCTR	Casey Hooleavg 11.7¢	$232.65	$357.09	+$124.44	31% 411-924 (1335)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Casey Hooleavg 12¢	$165.21	$207.84	+$42.63	31% 412-920 (1332)
└ Casey Hoole leg	Casey Hooleavg 12¢	$102.96	$146.04	+$43.08
└ Dane Sweeny leg	Dane Sweenyavg 83.6¢	$62.25	$61.8	-$0.45
EU Eulhunter	Dane Sweenyavg 88¢	$201.58	$199.07	-$2.51	49% 118-121 (239)
VeryLucky888CTR	Casey Hooleavg 30¢	$204.27	$136.18	-$68.09	52% 497-453 (950)
0xheavy888CTR	Casey Hooleavg 30¢	$175.66	$117.11	-$58.55	55% 205-165 (370)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Dane Sweenyavg 70¢	$66.5	$78.85	+$12.35	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
BA babybells<$100	Dane Sweenyavg 88¢	$63.7	$65	+$1.3	25% 138-417 (555)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Dane Sweenyavg 77¢	$15.4	$16.6	+$1.2	27% 144-385 (529)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Casey Hooleavg 23¢	$19.44	$14.37	-$5.07	41% 580-851 (1431)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Dane Sweenyavg 89.1¢	$14.77	$13.76	-$1.01	24% 156-503 (659)
PA pauleta23<$100	Dane Sweenyavg 77¢	$10	$10.58	+$0.58	32% 234-496 (730)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	Casey Hooleavg 31¢	$10	$6.45	-$3.55	49% 58-61 (119)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Casey Hooleavg 30¢	$1.5	$1	-$0.5	34% 328-634 (962)

MadridTime

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$6,633.95

Value

$6.1K

PnL

-$364.97

Record

31%

412-897 (1309)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Casey Hoole

Invested

$1,410.49

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$453.52

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

thirdt1me

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$534

Value

$498

PnL

-$36

Record

43%

125-167 (292)

VenusianCTR

Casey Hoole

Invested

$232.65

Value

$357.09

PnL

+$124.44

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Casey Hoole

Invested

$165.21

Value

$207.84

PnL

+$42.63

Record

31%

412-920 (1332)

Both legs:

Casey Hoole$102.9612¢+$43.08

Dane Sweeny$62.2583.6¢-$0.45

Eulhunter

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$201.58

Value

$199.07

PnL

-$2.51

Record

49%

118-121 (239)

VeryLucky888CTR

Casey Hoole

Invested

$204.27

Value

$136.18

PnL

-$68.09

Record

52%

497-453 (950)

0xheavy888CTR

Casey Hoole

Invested

$175.66

Value

$117.11

PnL

-$58.55

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

Flaznorp<$100

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$66.5

Value

$78.85

PnL

+$12.35

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

babybells<$100

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$63.7

Value

$65

PnL

+$1.3

Record

25%

138-417 (555)

thestingsnake<$100

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$15.4

Value

$16.6

PnL

+$1.2

Record

27%

144-385 (529)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Casey Hoole

Invested

$19.44

Value

$14.37

PnL

-$5.07

Record

41%

580-851 (1431)

BillBenter2026<$100

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$14.77

Value

$13.76

PnL

-$1.01

Record

24%

156-503 (659)

pauleta23<$100

Dane Sweeny

Invested

$10

Value

$10.58

PnL

+$0.58

Record

32%

234-496 (730)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

Casey Hoole

Invested

$10

Value

$6.45

PnL

-$3.55

Record

49%

58-61 (119)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Casey Hoole

Invested

$1.5

Value

PnL

-$0.5

Record

34%

328-634 (962)

Research grade

NeutralDane Sweeny at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Dane Sweeny

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on Dane Sweeny. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Casey Hoole) and the top 1000 (14 on Dane Sweeny) disagree here.

sharpDane Sweeny 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCasey Hoole 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedCasey Hoole 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Dane Sweeny 57% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dane Sweeny wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.