Orleans: Dalibor Svrcina vs Otto Virtanen

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Otto Virtanen (67%) · Otto Virtanen at 55¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 19

Dalibor Svrcina46¢Otto Virtanen54¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Otto Virtanen

Consensus Traders

Otto Virtanen 67%

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

-$130.79

Smart Money Entry

56.3¢ → 54.5¢

-3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralOtto Virtanen at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Otto Virtanen

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Dalibor Svrcina46%

Otto Virtanen55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Otto Virtanen10 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares11,812

Combined PnL-$146.1

Dalibor Svrcina5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,194

Combined PnL+$15.31

Otto Virtanen — 67%Dalibor Svrcina — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Otto Virtanen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOtto Virtanen 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOtto Virtanen 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Otto Virtanen 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Otto Virtanenavg 56.2¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	-$57.94	52% 754-704 (1458)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 45¢	$999	$1.0K	+$11.1	36% 16-29 (45)
0xheavy888	Otto Virtanenavg 56.6¢	$894.36	$869.75	-$24.6	54% 272-234 (506)
FL Flaznorp	Otto Virtanenavg 56.4¢	$752.81	$734.37	-$18.44	51% 2526-2431 (4957)
GC GC-P	Otto Virtanenavg 56.5¢	$715.99	$696.98	-$19.01	26% 152-427 (579)
NM NM-P	Otto Virtanenavg 56.5¢	$715.99	$696.98	-$19.01	59% 3534-2416 (5950)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Otto Virtanenavg 55¢	$440	$440	-$0	18% 198-893 (1091)
EF efntrick	Otto Virtanenavg 56.2¢	$219	$214.5	-$4.5	43% 65-87 (152)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 45¢	$205.47	$207.75	+$2.28	33% 556-1107 (1663)
RN1CTR	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 45¢	$127.53	$127.53	-$0	56% 4480-3454 (7934)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 45¢	$91.53	$92.55	+$1.02	33% 533-1106 (1639)
PA Pan9X<$100	Otto Virtanenavg 56.4¢	$45.67	$44.55	-$1.12	49% 1071-1127 (2198)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Otto Virtanenavg 57¢	$32.86	$31.71	-$1.15	61% 956-608 (1564)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 42¢	$12.81	$13.73	+$0.92	57% 13-10 (23)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Otto Virtanenavg 56.7¢	$8.5	$8.18	-$0.32	38% 482-799 (1281)

VeryLucky888

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$2,982.89

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$57.94

Record

52%

754-704 (1458)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$999

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$11.1

Record

36%

16-29 (45)

0xheavy888

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$894.36

Value

$869.75

PnL

-$24.6

Record

54%

272-234 (506)

Flaznorp

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$752.81

Value

$734.37

PnL

-$18.44

Record

51%

2526-2431 (4957)

GC-P

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$715.99

Value

$696.98

PnL

-$19.01

Record

26%

152-427 (579)

NM-P

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$715.99

Value

$696.98

PnL

-$19.01

Record

59%

3534-2416 (5950)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$440

Value

$440

PnL

-$0

Record

18%

198-893 (1091)

efntrick

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$219

Value

$214.5

PnL

-$4.5

Record

43%

65-87 (152)

MadridTimeCTR

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$205.47

Value

$207.75

PnL

+$2.28

Record

33%

556-1107 (1663)

RN1CTR

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$127.53

Value

$127.53

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

4480-3454 (7934)

LimousinCTR<$100

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$91.53

Value

$92.55

PnL

+$1.02

Record

33%

533-1106 (1639)

Pan9X<$100

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$45.67

Value

$44.55

PnL

-$1.12

Record

49%

1071-1127 (2198)

darkumbreon88<$100

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$32.86

Value

$31.71

PnL

-$1.15

Record

61%

956-608 (1564)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$12.81

Value

$13.73

PnL

+$0.92

Record

57%

13-10 (23)

ameisgoat11<$100

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$8.5

Value

$8.18

PnL

-$0.32

Record

38%

482-799 (1281)

Research grade

NeutralOtto Virtanen at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Otto Virtanen

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Otto Virtanen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOtto Virtanen 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOtto Virtanen 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Otto Virtanen 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Otto Virtanen wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.