Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Vitaliy Sachko, while the market favors Dalibor Svrcina (65%). 10 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Orleans: Dalibor Svrcina vs Vitaliy Sachko

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Vitaliy Sachko (77%) · Vitaliy Sachko at 36¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 16

Dalibor Svrcina65¢Vitaliy Sachko35¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vitaliy Sachko

Consensus Traders

Vitaliy Sachko 77%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$456.04

Smart Money Entry

32.5¢ → 35.5¢

+9% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralVitaliy Sachko at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vitaliy Sachko

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Dalibor Svrcina 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Dalibor Svrcina65%

Vitaliy Sachko36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vitaliy Sachko10 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares7,951

Combined PnL+$455.58

Dalibor Svrcina3 traders

Total Value$72.56

Total Shares107

Combined PnL+$0.46

Vitaliy Sachko — 77%Dalibor Svrcina — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tradecraftCTR	Vitaliy Sachkoavg 32¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$300	14% 93-563 (656)
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Vitaliy Sachkoavg 32¢	$640	$384.05	+$75.23	18% 107-477 (584)
FL flatbarrelCTR	Vitaliy Sachkoavg 32¢	$223.84	$276.09	+$52.26	4% 15-371 (386)
0xheavy888CTR	Vitaliy Sachkoavg 36¢	$259.35	$266.56	+$7.2	55% 94-78 (172)
VeryLucky888CTR	Vitaliy Sachkoavg 35.6¢	$254.55	$255.12	+$10.2	48% 208-228 (436)
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Vitaliy Sachkoavg 35¢	$192.5	$177.25	-$15.25	33% 54-112 (166)
└ Vitaliy Sachko leg	Vitaliy Sachkoavg 35¢	$140	$130	-$10
└ Dalibor Svrcina leg	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 75¢	$52.5	$47.25	-$5.25
TRCMCTR	Vitaliy Sachkoavg 27¢	$98.33	$107.44	+$9.1	6% 27-410 (437)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Vitaliy Sachkoavg 32¢	$105.24	$106.96	+$1.72	16% 60-327 (387)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 71¢	$56.8	$57.2	+$0.4	50% 1378-1396 (2774)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Vitaliy Sachkoavg 33.4¢	$36.34	$34.21	-$2.13	56% 3774-2944 (6718)
RN1CTR<$100	Vitaliy Sachkoavg 33¢	$16.42	$18.41	+$1.99	58% 3743-2698 (6441)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 56¢	$13.44	$13.56	+$0.12	54% 1599-1345 (2944)
38 38791873984189<$100	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 65¢	$1.86	$1.8	-$0.06	48% 721-776 (1497)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Vitaliy Sachkoavg 24¢	$0.32	$0.32	+$0.01	15% 62-357 (419)

tradecraftCTR

Vitaliy Sachko

Invested

$1,280

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$300

Record

14%

93-563 (656)

SchruteBucksCTR

Vitaliy Sachko

Invested

$640

Value

$384.05

PnL

+$75.23

Record

18%

107-477 (584)

flatbarrelCTR

Vitaliy Sachko

Invested

$223.84

Value

$276.09

PnL

+$52.26

Record

15-371 (386)

0xheavy888CTR

Vitaliy Sachko

Invested

$259.35

Value

$266.56

PnL

+$7.2

Record

55%

94-78 (172)

VeryLucky888CTR

Vitaliy Sachko

Invested

$254.55

Value

$255.12

PnL

+$10.2

Record

48%

208-228 (436)

thirdt1meARB<$100

Vitaliy Sachko

Invested

$192.5

Value

$177.25

PnL

-$15.25

Record

33%

54-112 (166)

Both legs:

Vitaliy Sachko$14035¢-$10

Dalibor Svrcina$52.575¢-$5.25

TRCMCTR

Vitaliy Sachko

Invested

$98.33

Value

$107.44

PnL

+$9.1

Record

27-410 (437)

thestingsnakeCTR

Vitaliy Sachko

Invested

$105.24

Value

$106.96

PnL

+$1.72

Record

16%

60-327 (387)

Flaznorp<$100

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$56.8

Value

$57.2

PnL

+$0.4

Record

50%

1378-1396 (2774)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Vitaliy Sachko

Invested

$36.34

Value

$34.21

PnL

-$2.13

Record

56%

3774-2944 (6718)

RN1CTR<$100

Vitaliy Sachko

Invested

$16.42

Value

$18.41

PnL

+$1.99

Record

58%

3743-2698 (6441)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$13.44

Value

$13.56

PnL

+$0.12

Record

54%

1599-1345 (2944)

38791873984189<$100

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$1.86

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$0.06

Record

48%

721-776 (1497)

babybellsCTR<$100

Vitaliy Sachko

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.32

PnL

+$0.01

Record

15%

62-357 (419)

Research grade

NeutralVitaliy Sachko at 36%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Vitaliy Sachko

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Dalibor Svrcina 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vitaliy Sachko wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.