Bratislava 2: Dalibor Svrcina vs Norbert Gombos

17 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Dalibor Svrcina (55%) · Dalibor Svrcina at 100¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 9

Dalibor Svrcina>99¢Norbert Gombos<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dalibor Svrcina

Consensus Traders

Dalibor Svrcina 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.0K

Combined PnL

$-3.7K

Smart Money Entry

93¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralDalibor Svrcina at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dalibor Svrcina

17 of 31 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Dalibor Svrcina100%

Norbert Gombos0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dalibor Svrcina17 traders

Total Value$14.7K

Total Shares14,815

Combined PnL-$371.34

Norbert Gombos14 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares15,897

Combined PnL$-3.3K

Dalibor Svrcina — 55%Norbert Gombos — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LhordGryffin	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 99.9¢	$10.7K	$10.7K	+$5.35	99% 1149-12 (1161)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Norbert Gombosavg 51¢	$4.6K	$3.9K	-$690.38	54% 906-787 (1693)
MA MadridTime	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 77¢	$806.29	$819.39	+$13.09	52% 830-771 (1601)
VE Venusian	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 70.1¢	$809.29	$765.05	-$44.24	53% 916-813 (1729)
FL Flaznorp	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 85.7¢	$1.1K	$709.96	-$356.36	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
LI Limousin	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 58.4¢	$654.25	$693.39	+$39.13	56% 942-736 (1678)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Norbert Gombosavg 34.9¢	$734.15	$536.36	-$197.79	46% 1298-1511 (2809)
EU Eulhunter	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 94.4¢	$442.46	$423.27	-$19.2	54% 6054-5063 (11117)
1L 1lovejump	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 72.7¢	$1.3K	$290.56	-$15.95	52% 702-642 (1344)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Norbert Gombosavg 36.9¢	$1.8K	$273.12	$-1.6K	51% 4504-4380 (8884)
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Norbert Gombosavg 50.1¢	$925.3	$149.28	-$776.02	52% 6711-6252 (12963)
└ Dalibor Svrcina leg	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 53.7¢	$62.52	$114	+$51.48
└ Norbert Gombos leg	Norbert Gombosavg 50.1¢	$862.78	$35.28	-$827.5
VeryLucky888CTR	Norbert Gombosavg 30¢	$119.29	$133.77	+$14.48	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 75.2¢	$89.5	$85.79	-$3.71	57% 18986-14047 (33033)
CI cigarettes<$100	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 73.2¢	$72.56	$79.99	+$7.43	54% 22035-19135 (41170)
poshposhARB<$100	Norbert Gombosavg 32.2¢	$52.35	$57	+$4.65	57% 11866-8957 (20823)
└ Norbert Gombos leg	Norbert Gombosavg 32.2¢	$27.58	$33.37	+$5.79
└ Dalibor Svrcina leg	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 64¢	$24.77	$23.63	-$1.14
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 68.1¢	$48.57	$48.85	+$0.28	59% 31360-22035 (53395)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 70¢	$48.38	$48.04	-$0.35	54% 497-430 (927)
38 38791873984189CTR	Norbert Gombosavg 33.9¢	$945.82	$42.93	-$605.38	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Norbert Gombosavg 29.6¢	$36.68	$37.82	+$1.14	58% 30476-22265 (52741)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Norbert Gombosavg 30.3¢	$325.54	$34.91	-$236.86	60% 4225-2826 (7051)
RN1CTR<$100	Norbert Gombosavg 51¢	$23.9	$24.36	+$0.47	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Norbert Gombosavg 31¢	$17.98	$24.07	+$6.09	48% 5181-5695 (10876)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Norbert Gombosavg 64¢	$42.08	$20.71	-$21.37	44% 10222-13273 (23495)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Dalibor Svrcinaavg 42¢	$17.64	$19.84	+$2.2	52% 14121-12894 (27015)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Norbert Gombosavg 32.6¢	$19.8	$18.52	-$1.28	58% 49552-35660 (85212)

LhordGryffin

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$10,689.3

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$5.35

Record

99%

1149-12 (1161)

LightParadoxCTR

Norbert Gombos

Invested

$4,597.46

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$690.38

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

MadridTime

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$806.29

Value

$819.39

PnL

+$13.09

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

Venusian

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$809.29

Value

$765.05

PnL

-$44.24

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

Flaznorp

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$1,066.32

Value

$709.96

PnL

-$356.36

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

Limousin

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$654.25

Value

$693.39

PnL

+$39.13

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Norbert Gombos

Invested

$734.15

Value

$536.36

PnL

-$197.79

Record

46%

1298-1511 (2809)

Eulhunter

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$442.46

Value

$423.27

PnL

-$19.2

Record

54%

6054-5063 (11117)

1lovejump

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$1,284.56

Value

$290.56

PnL

-$15.95

Record

52%

702-642 (1344)

6512395314597884CTR

Norbert Gombos

Invested

$1,833.76

Value

$273.12

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

51%

4504-4380 (8884)

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Norbert Gombos

Invested

$925.3

Value

$149.28

PnL

-$776.02

Record

52%

6711-6252 (12963)

Both legs:

Dalibor Svrcina$62.5253.7¢+$51.48

Norbert Gombos$862.7850.1¢-$827.5

VeryLucky888CTR

Norbert Gombos

Invested

$119.29

Value

$133.77

PnL

+$14.48

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

BillBenter2026<$100

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$89.5

Value

$85.79

PnL

-$3.71

Record

57%

18986-14047 (33033)

cigarettes<$100

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$72.56

Value

$79.99

PnL

+$7.43

Record

54%

22035-19135 (41170)

poshposhARB<$100

Norbert Gombos

Invested

$52.35

Value

$57

PnL

+$4.65

Record

57%

11866-8957 (20823)

Both legs:

Norbert Gombos$27.5832.2¢+$5.79

Dalibor Svrcina$24.7764¢-$1.14

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$48.57

Value

$48.85

PnL

+$0.28

Record

59%

31360-22035 (53395)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$48.38

Value

$48.04

PnL

-$0.35

Record

54%

497-430 (927)

38791873984189CTR

Norbert Gombos

Invested

$945.82

Value

$42.93

PnL

-$605.38

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Norbert Gombos

Invested

$36.68

Value

$37.82

PnL

+$1.14

Record

58%

30476-22265 (52741)

thestingsnakeCTR

Norbert Gombos

Invested

$325.54

Value

$34.91

PnL

-$236.86

Record

60%

4225-2826 (7051)

RN1CTR<$100

Norbert Gombos

Invested

$23.9

Value

$24.36

PnL

+$0.47

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Norbert Gombos

Invested

$17.98

Value

$24.07

PnL

+$6.09

Record

48%

5181-5695 (10876)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Norbert Gombos

Invested

$42.08

Value

$20.71

PnL

-$21.37

Record

44%

10222-13273 (23495)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Dalibor Svrcina

Invested

$17.64

Value

$19.84

PnL

+$2.2

Record

52%

14121-12894 (27015)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Norbert Gombos

Invested

$19.8

Value

$18.52

PnL

-$1.28

Record

58%

49552-35660 (85212)

Research grade

NeutralDalibor Svrcina at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Dalibor Svrcina

17 of 31 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dalibor Svrcina wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.