Knoxville: Trevor Svajda vs Max Hans Rehberg

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Max Hans Rehberg (67%) · Max Hans Rehberg at 86¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 16

Trevor Svajda14¢Max Hans Rehberg86¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Max Hans Rehberg

Consensus Traders

Max Hans Rehberg 67%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$132.29

Smart Money Entry

74.2¢ → 85.5¢

+15% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralMax Hans Rehberg at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Max Hans Rehberg

12 of 18 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Trevor Svajda14%

Max Hans Rehberg86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Max Hans Rehberg12 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,905

Combined PnL+$175.21

Trevor Svajda6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares5,602

Combined PnL-$42.93

Max Hans Rehberg — 67%Trevor Svajda — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on Max Hans Rehberg. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trevor Svajda) and the top 1000 (19 on Max Hans Rehberg) disagree here.

sharpTrevor Svajda 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrMax Hans Rehberg 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrevor Svajda 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Max Hans Rehberg 53% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Max Hans Rehbergavg 76.6¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$67.2	49% 377-392 (769)
LI Limousin	Max Hans Rehbergavg 86¢	$1.1K	$985.58	-$132.47	24% 87-279 (366)
RN1ARB<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 75.1¢	$936.69	$907.85	-$28.84	54% 230-199 (429)
└ Max Hans Rehberg leg	Max Hans Rehbergavg 75.1¢	$653.3	$683.08	+$29.77
└ Trevor Svajda leg	Trevor Svajdaavg 27.1¢	$283.39	$224.77	-$58.62
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Trevor Svajdaavg 17.8¢	$658	$703	+$45	5% 4-73 (77)
TH thirdt1me	Max Hans Rehbergavg 64.1¢	$490.27	$585.23	+$94.95	0% 0-31 (31)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Trevor Svajdaavg 33.1¢	$457.63	$380.4	-$77.23	24% 34-106 (140)
0xheavy888	Max Hans Rehbergavg 59¢	$214.86	$296.8	+$63.73	69% 27-12 (39)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Max Hans Rehbergavg 79¢	$205.39	$206.69	+$1.3	30% 104-243 (347)
FL Flaznorp	Max Hans Rehbergavg 55.7¢	$138.36	$188.27	+$49.75	52% 236-220 (456)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 86¢	$241.96	$180.94	-$60.88	25% 84-258 (342)
└ Max Hans Rehberg leg	Max Hans Rehbergavg 86¢	$138.72	$137.91	-$0.81
└ Trevor Svajda leg	Trevor Svajdaavg 34.7¢	$102.89	$43.03	-$60.07
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Trevor Svajdaavg 40¢	$258.82	$131	-$127.82	25% 84-248 (332)
└ Trevor Svajda leg	Trevor Svajdaavg 40¢	$204.38	$76.56	-$127.82
└ Max Hans Rehberg leg	Max Hans Rehbergavg 85¢	$54.44	$54.44	+$0
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Trevor Svajdaavg 41¢	$114.87	$112.93	-$1.95	30% 60-139 (199)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 74.9¢	$108.58	$109.11	-$2.95	54% 31-26 (57)
└ Max Hans Rehberg leg	Max Hans Rehbergavg 74.9¢	$65.08	$64.74	-$0.34
└ Trevor Svajda leg	Trevor Svajdaavg 25¢	$43.5	$44.37	-$2.61
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 76.8¢	$98.48	$99.08	+$0.6	38% 38-62 (100)
└ Max Hans Rehberg leg	Max Hans Rehbergavg 76.8¢	$76.38	$75.06	-$1.32
└ Trevor Svajda leg	Trevor Svajdaavg 22.5¢	$22.1	$24.03	+$1.92
machinelearned<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 67.2¢	$74.2	$83.6	+$9.4	44% 140-177 (317)
GA Gaditima<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 71.9¢	$71.93	$81.5	+$4.57	47% 28-32 (60)
TRCM<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 59¢	$47.79	$66.02	+$11.75	14% 20-125 (145)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 77¢	$46.52	$39.97	-$6.55	14% 28-178 (206)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Trevor Svajdaavg 32.5¢	$25.49	$24.98	-$0.5	—
PA Pan9X<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 59¢	$31	$23.72	+$5.43	48% 171-185 (356)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Trevor Svajdaavg 43¢	$18.06	$9.87	-$8.19	43% 26-35 (61)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Trevor Svajdaavg 23¢	$2.59	$2.53	-$0.06	24% 81-263 (344)
SC SchruteBucks<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 67.4¢	$72.64	$1.46	+$6.17	20% 38-149 (187)

38791873984189

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$1,505.59

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$67.2

Record

49%

377-392 (769)

Limousin

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$1,118.05

Value

$985.58

PnL

-$132.47

Record

24%

87-279 (366)

RN1ARB<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$936.69

Value

$907.85

PnL

-$28.84

Record

54%

230-199 (429)

Both legs:

Max Hans Rehberg$653.375.1¢+$29.77

Trevor Svajda$283.3927.1¢-$58.62

ubetteruuuuCTR

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$658

Value

$703

PnL

+$45

Record

4-73 (77)

thirdt1me

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$490.27

Value

$585.23

PnL

+$94.95

Record

0-31 (31)

thestingsnakeCTR

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$457.63

Value

$380.4

PnL

-$77.23

Record

24%

34-106 (140)

0xheavy888

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$214.86

Value

$296.8

PnL

+$63.73

Record

69%

27-12 (39)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$205.39

Value

$206.69

PnL

+$1.3

Record

30%

104-243 (347)

Flaznorp

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$138.36

Value

$188.27

PnL

+$49.75

Record

52%

236-220 (456)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$241.96

Value

$180.94

PnL

-$60.88

Record

25%

84-258 (342)

Both legs:

Max Hans Rehberg$138.7286¢-$0.81

Trevor Svajda$102.8934.7¢-$60.07

LightParadoxARB<$100

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$258.82

Value

$131

PnL

-$127.82

Record

25%

84-248 (332)

Both legs:

Trevor Svajda$204.3840¢-$127.82

Max Hans Rehberg$54.4485¢+$0

omnibus-076daaCTR

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$114.87

Value

$112.93

PnL

-$1.95

Record

30%

60-139 (199)

EulhunterARB<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$108.58

Value

$109.11

PnL

-$2.95

Record

54%

31-26 (57)

Both legs:

Max Hans Rehberg$65.0874.9¢-$0.34

Trevor Svajda$43.525¢-$2.61

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$98.48

Value

$99.08

PnL

+$0.6

Record

38%

38-62 (100)

Both legs:

Max Hans Rehberg$76.3876.8¢-$1.32

Trevor Svajda$22.122.5¢+$1.92

machinelearned<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$74.2

Value

$83.6

PnL

+$9.4

Record

44%

140-177 (317)

Gaditima<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$71.93

Value

$81.5

PnL

+$4.57

Record

47%

28-32 (60)

TRCM<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$47.79

Value

$66.02

PnL

+$11.75

Record

14%

20-125 (145)

BillBenter2026<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$46.52

Value

$39.97

PnL

-$6.55

Record

14%

28-178 (206)

babybellsCTR<$100

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$25.49

Value

$24.98

PnL

-$0.5

Record

—

Pan9X<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$31

Value

$23.72

PnL

+$5.43

Record

48%

171-185 (356)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$18.06

Value

$9.87

PnL

-$8.19

Record

43%

26-35 (61)

VenusianCTR<$100

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$2.59

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$0.06

Record

24%

81-263 (344)

SchruteBucks<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$72.64

Value

$1.46

PnL

+$6.17

Record

20%

38-149 (187)

Research grade

NeutralMax Hans Rehberg at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Max Hans Rehberg

12 of 18 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on Max Hans Rehberg. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trevor Svajda) and the top 1000 (19 on Max Hans Rehberg) disagree here.

sharpTrevor Svajda 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrMax Hans Rehberg 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrevor Svajda 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Max Hans Rehberg 53% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Max Hans Rehberg wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.