Matsuyama: Fajing Sun vs Billy Harris

13 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Billy Harris (68%) · Billy Harris at 89¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 18

Fajing Sun12¢Billy Harris88¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Billy Harris

Consensus Traders

Billy Harris 68%

Total Value

$13.8K

Combined PnL

-$49.33

Smart Money Entry

82.8¢ → 88.5¢

+7% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralBilly Harris at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Billy Harris

13 of 19 top traders (68%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Fajing Sun12%

Billy Harris89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Billy Harris13 traders

Total Value$13.1K

Total Shares15,368

Combined PnL+$236.1

Fajing Sun6 traders

Total Value$724.98

Total Shares5,492

Combined PnL-$285.44

Billy Harris — 68%Fajing Sun — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tradecraft	Billy Harrisavg 82¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$100	19% 140-602 (742)
TRCM	Billy Harrisavg 82¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$85.4	10% 48-425 (473)
SC SchruteBucks	Billy Harrisavg 82¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$50	21% 132-489 (621)
MA MadridTime	Billy Harrisavg 88¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$15.57	30% 326-779 (1105)
LI LightParadox	Billy Harrisavg 85.2¢	$940.84	$939.17	-$1.67	29% 320-793 (1113)
TH thestingsnake	Billy Harrisavg 78.6¢	$737.37	$815.89	+$78.52	21% 100-366 (466)
38 38791873984189	Billy Harrisavg 82¢	$820	$805	-$15	48% 1056-1134 (2190)
TH thirdt1me	Billy Harrisavg 83.5¢	$633.32	$554.57	-$38.57	43% 103-138 (241)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Fajing Sunavg 13.9¢	$310.07	$290.01	-$20.06	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
LI Limousin	Billy Harrisavg 83.8¢	$214.79	$208.92	-$4.63	29% 332-810 (1142)
BA babybells	Billy Harrisavg 83.3¢	$191.6	$185.15	-$6.45	21% 108-397 (505)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Fajing Sunavg 14¢	$172.4	$178.56	+$6.16	53% 1703-1483 (3186)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Billy Harrisavg 84.6¢	$173.02	$175.75	+$2.73	56% 3827-2997 (6824)
0X 0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893CTR	Fajing Sunavg 34¢	$407.99	$144	-$264	3% 7-257 (264)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Fajing Sunavg 14¢	$71.98	$74.41	+$2.43	26% 131-365 (496)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Billy Harrisavg 84.2¢	$50.55	$51.9	+$1.35	19% 116-482 (598)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Fajing Sunavg 15.2¢	$47.09	$37.08	-$10.01	29% 322-803 (1125)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Billy Harrisavg 83¢	$24.9	$24.9	+$0	48% 85-91 (176)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Fajing Sunavg 11¢	$0.88	$0.92	+$0.04	39% 447-703 (1150)

tradecraft

Billy Harris

Invested

$3,280

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$100

Record

19%

140-602 (742)

TRCM

Billy Harris

Invested

$2,801.22

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$85.4

Record

10%

48-425 (473)

SchruteBucks

Billy Harris

Invested

$1,640

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$50

Record

21%

132-489 (621)

MadridTime

Billy Harris

Invested

$1,396.62

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$15.57

Record

30%

326-779 (1105)

LightParadox

Billy Harris

Invested

$940.84

Value

$939.17

PnL

-$1.67

Record

29%

320-793 (1113)

thestingsnake

Billy Harris

Invested

$737.37

Value

$815.89

PnL

+$78.52

Record

21%

100-366 (466)

38791873984189

Billy Harris

Invested

$820

Value

$805

PnL

-$15

Record

48%

1056-1134 (2190)

thirdt1me

Billy Harris

Invested

$633.32

Value

$554.57

PnL

-$38.57

Record

43%

103-138 (241)

FlaznorpCTR

Fajing Sun

Invested

$310.07

Value

$290.01

PnL

-$20.06

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

Limousin

Billy Harris

Invested

$214.79

Value

$208.92

PnL

-$4.63

Record

29%

332-810 (1142)

babybells

Billy Harris

Invested

$191.6

Value

$185.15

PnL

-$6.45

Record

21%

108-397 (505)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Fajing Sun

Invested

$172.4

Value

$178.56

PnL

+$6.16

Record

53%

1703-1483 (3186)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Billy Harris

Invested

$173.02

Value

$175.75

PnL

+$2.73

Record

56%

3827-2997 (6824)

0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893CTR

Fajing Sun

Invested

$407.99

Value

$144

PnL

-$264

Record

7-257 (264)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Fajing Sun

Invested

$71.98

Value

$74.41

PnL

+$2.43

Record

26%

131-365 (496)

BillBenter2026<$100

Billy Harris

Invested

$50.55

Value

$51.9

PnL

+$1.35

Record

19%

116-482 (598)

VenusianCTR<$100

Fajing Sun

Invested

$47.09

Value

$37.08

PnL

-$10.01

Record

29%

322-803 (1125)

Eulhunter<$100

Billy Harris

Invested

$24.9

Value

$24.9

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

85-91 (176)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Fajing Sun

Invested

$0.88

Value

$0.92

PnL

+$0.04

Record

39%

447-703 (1150)

Research grade

NeutralBilly Harris at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Billy Harris

13 of 19 top traders (68%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Billy Harris wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.