Matsuyama: Luca Staeheli vs Takuya Kumasaka
8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Takuya Kumasaka (73%) · Takuya Kumasaka at 93¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Takuya Kumasaka
11
Takuya Kumasaka 73%
$12.2K
$1.4K
84.3¢ → 93.3¢
+11% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralTakuya Kumasaka at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox | Takuya Kumasakaavg 86.2¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | +$129.21 | 47% 2157-2403 (4560) |
FL Flaznorp | Takuya Kumasakaavg 88.7¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | -$60.31 | 52% 47368-44608 (91976) |
FE ferrariChampions2026 | Takuya Kumasakaavg 88¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$23.74 | 46% 33417-38911 (72328) |
LI Limousin | Takuya Kumasakaavg 83.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$32.94 | 49% 2223-2352 (4575) |
 RN1 | Takuya Kumasakaavg 65.3¢ | $733.76 | $1.0K | +$275.07 | 53% 70249-61821 (132070) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Luca Staeheliavg 18.3¢ | $295.02 | $813.55 | +$518.53 | 47% 2148-2414 (4562) |
VE VenusianCTR | Luca Staeheliavg 19.9¢ | $215.36 | $547.46 | +$332.1 | 47% 2189-2445 (4634) |
0X 0x6982049c65e98606f65A0CE71fDb9b61296dA165-1777135114945CTR | Luca Staeheliavg 37.2¢ | $336.81 | $457.82 | +$121.01 | 71% 967-386 (1353) |
TH thestingsnake | Takuya Kumasakaavg 78.3¢ | $387.86 | $431.26 | +$70.99 | 60% 4598-3103 (7701) |
 machinelearned | Takuya Kumasakaavg 79.3¢ | $147.93 | $147.13 | -$0.8 | 54% 10225-8705 (18930) |
EU Eulhunter | Takuya Kumasakaavg 81.9¢ | $92.16 | $100.76 | +$8.6 | 53% 6779-5931 (12710) |
Invested
$3,155.82
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$129.21
Record
47%
2157-2403 (4560)
Invested
$2,928.85
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$60.31
Record
52%
47368-44608 (91976)
Invested
$1,356.18
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$23.74
Record
46%
33417-38911 (72328)
Invested
$1,158.12
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$32.94
Record
49%
2223-2352 (4575)
RN1Invested
$733.76
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$275.07
Record
53%
70249-61821 (132070)
Invested
$295.02
Value
$813.55
PnL
+$518.53
Record
47%
2148-2414 (4562)
Invested
$215.36
Value
$547.46
PnL
+$332.1
Record
47%
2189-2445 (4634)
Invested
$336.81
Value
$457.82
PnL
+$121.01
Record
71%
967-386 (1353)
Invested
$387.86
Value
$431.26
PnL
+$70.99
Record
60%
4598-3103 (7701)
machinelearnedInvested
$147.93
Value
$147.13
PnL
-$0.8
Record
54%
10225-8705 (18930)
Invested
$92.16
Value
$100.76
PnL
+$8.6
Record
53%
6779-5931 (12710)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
LightParadox
Takuya Kumasaka — $3.3K
Flaznorp
Takuya Kumasaka — $2.9K
ferrariChampions2026
Takuya Kumasaka — $1.4K
Limousin
Takuya Kumasaka — $1.1K
RN1
Takuya Kumasaka — $1.0K
MadridTime
CTRLuca Staeheli — $813.55
Venusian
CTRLuca Staeheli — $547.46
0x6982049c65e98606f65A0CE71fDb9b61296dA165-1777135114945
CTRLuca Staeheli — $457.82
thestingsnake
Takuya Kumasaka — $431.26
machinelearned
Takuya Kumasaka — $147.13