Helsinki: John Sperle vs Moez Echargui

16 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Moez Echargui (55%) · Moez Echargui at 82¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 22

John Sperle19¢Moez Echargui81¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Moez Echargui

Consensus Traders

Moez Echargui 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.4K

Combined PnL

$311.23

Smart Money Entry

80.7¢ → 81.5¢

+1% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralMoez Echargui at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Moez Echargui

16 of 29 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

John Sperle19%

Moez Echargui82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Moez Echargui16 traders

Total Value$17.8K

Total Shares20,620

Combined PnL+$448.93

John Sperle13 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares9,917

Combined PnL-$137.7

Moez Echargui — 55%John Sperle — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on Moez Echargui. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMoez Echargui 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMoez Echargui 60% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedMoez Echargui 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Moez Echargui 56% · 27

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Moez Echarguiavg 84.7¢	$4.7K	$4.8K	+$82.65	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Moez Echarguiavg 79.6¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$72.19	50% 2841-2879 (5720)
RN1	Moez Echarguiavg 75¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$252.39	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
TH thestingsnake	Moez Echarguiavg 85¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$73.5	36% 252-449 (701)
LI LightParadox	Moez Echarguiavg 82.7¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$73.51	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
MA MadridTime	Moez Echarguiavg 85.1¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$55.74	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
VE Venusian	Moez Echarguiavg 85.2¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$9.28	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
NO NotJump	Moez Echarguiavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
OM omnibus-076daa	Moez Echarguiavg 82.9¢	$854.46	$905.3	+$98.08	46% 631-739 (1370)
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	John Sperleavg 16.9¢	$780.8	$634.08	+$9	48% 372-408 (780)
└ John Sperle leg	John Sperleavg 16.9¢	$491.59	$480.87	+$29.42
└ Moez Echargui leg	Moez Echarguiavg 94¢	$172.47	$153.21	-$20.42
65 6512395314597884CTR	John Sperleavg 19.2¢	$619.03	$596.7	-$22.33	50% 4044-4051 (8095)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Moez Echarguiavg 83.7¢	$697.06	$396.37	+$42.15	34% 268-521 (789)
└ Moez Echargui leg	Moez Echarguiavg 83.7¢	$274.18	$267.03	-$15.36
└ John Sperle leg	John Sperleavg 14.1¢	$98.67	$129.33	+$57.51
38 38791873984189CTR	John Sperleavg 17.8¢	$1.8K	$394.34	-$141.4	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	John Sperleavg 13.8¢	$350.01	$355.97	+$5.95	48% 630-669 (1299)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	John Sperleavg 13.3¢	$150.24	$158.5	+$8.26	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
EF efntrick	Moez Echarguiavg 79¢	$115.08	$125.27	+$10.2	46% 113-135 (248)
EU Eulhunter	Moez Echarguiavg 82.3¢	$104.56	$103.51	-$1.05	53% 217-191 (408)
poshposh<$100	Moez Echarguiavg 88.1¢	$94.95	$92.68	-$2.27	49% 1311-1390 (2701)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Moez Echarguiavg 87.9¢	$39.55	$38.7	-$0.85	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Moez Echarguiavg 76¢	$24.46	$27.67	+$3.21	46% 472-559 (1031)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	John Sperleavg 15.8¢	$22.15	$20.35	+$13.75	66% 779-409 (1188)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Moez Echarguiavg 81¢	$10	$10.06	+$0.06	48% 224-246 (470)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Moez Echarguiavg 92.5¢	$9.25	$8.6	-$0.65	33% 300-622 (922)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	John Sperleavg 20¢	$7.4	$5.18	-$2.22	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
dips.CTR<$100	John Sperleavg 14¢	$2.73	$3.61	+$0.88	48% 1300-1386 (2686)

Limousin

Moez Echargui

Invested

$4,724.8

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$82.65

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Moez Echargui

Invested

$3,067.96

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$72.19

Record

50%

2841-2879 (5720)

RN1

Moez Echargui

Invested

$1,720.83

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$252.39

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

thestingsnake

Moez Echargui

Invested

$1,785

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$73.5

Record

36%

252-449 (701)

LightParadox

Moez Echargui

Invested

$1,380.63

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$73.51

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

MadridTime

Moez Echargui

Invested

$1,334.11

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$55.74

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

Venusian

Moez Echargui

Invested

$1,220.48

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$9.28

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

NotJump

Moez Echargui

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

omnibus-076daa

Moez Echargui

Invested

$854.46

Value

$905.3

PnL

+$98.08

Record

46%

631-739 (1370)

thirdt1meARB<$100

John Sperle

Invested

$780.8

Value

$634.08

PnL

+$9

Record

48%

372-408 (780)

Both legs:

John Sperle$491.5916.9¢+$29.42

Moez Echargui$172.4794¢-$20.42

6512395314597884CTR

John Sperle

Invested

$619.03

Value

$596.7

PnL

-$22.33

Record

50%

4044-4051 (8095)

babybellsARB<$100

Moez Echargui

Invested

$697.06

Value

$396.37

PnL

+$42.15

Record

34%

268-521 (789)

Both legs:

Moez Echargui$274.1883.7¢-$15.36

John Sperle$98.6714.1¢+$57.51

38791873984189CTR

John Sperle

Invested

$1,767.89

Value

$394.34

PnL

-$141.4

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

John Sperle

Invested

$350.01

Value

$355.97

PnL

+$5.95

Record

48%

630-669 (1299)

topdogbigboiCTR

John Sperle

Invested

$150.24

Value

$158.5

PnL

+$8.26

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

efntrick

Moez Echargui

Invested

$115.08

Value

$125.27

PnL

+$10.2

Record

46%

113-135 (248)

Eulhunter

Moez Echargui

Invested

$104.56

Value

$103.51

PnL

-$1.05

Record

53%

217-191 (408)

poshposh<$100

Moez Echargui

Invested

$94.95

Value

$92.68

PnL

-$2.27

Record

49%

1311-1390 (2701)

Flaznorp<$100

Moez Echargui

Invested

$39.55

Value

$38.7

PnL

-$0.85

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Moez Echargui

Invested

$24.46

Value

$27.67

PnL

+$3.21

Record

46%

472-559 (1031)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

John Sperle

Invested

$22.15

Value

$20.35

PnL

+$13.75

Record

66%

779-409 (1188)

glennyorkshire<$100

Moez Echargui

Invested

$10

Value

$10.06

PnL

+$0.06

Record

48%

224-246 (470)

BillBenter2026<$100

Moez Echargui

Invested

$9.25

Value

$8.6

PnL

-$0.65

Record

33%

300-622 (922)

Pan9XCTR<$100

John Sperle

Invested

$7.4

Value

$5.18

PnL

-$2.22

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

dips.CTR<$100

John Sperle

Invested

$2.73

Value

$3.61

PnL

+$0.88

Record

48%

1300-1386 (2686)

Research grade

NeutralMoez Echargui at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Moez Echargui

16 of 29 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on Moez Echargui. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMoez Echargui 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMoez Echargui 60% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedMoez Echargui 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Moez Echargui 56% · 27

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Moez Echargui wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.