BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Alejandro Tabilo

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Lorenzo Sonego (57%) · Lorenzo Sonego at 59¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 18

Lorenzo Sonego59¢Alejandro Tabilo41¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lorenzo Sonego

Consensus Traders

Lorenzo Sonego 57%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$6.74

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 58.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Sonego at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Sonego

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lorenzo Sonego59%

Alejandro Tabilo42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lorenzo Sonego4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,875

Combined PnL+$9.22

Alejandro Tabilo3 traders

Total Value$420.77

Total Shares1,010

Combined PnL-$2.49

Lorenzo Sonego — 57%Alejandro Tabilo — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 58¢	$732.47	$738.78	+$6.31	51% 252-247 (499)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR	Alejandro Tabiloavg 42¢	$390.7	$386.05	-$4.65	1% 3-362 (365)
FL Flaznorp	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 58¢	$286.52	$288.99	+$2.47	50% 1423-1425 (2848)
SE sentrio<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 58¢	$65.35	$65.91	+$0.56	31% 176-393 (569)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Alejandro Tabiloavg 41¢	$25.76	$27.33	+$1.57	25% 224-671 (895)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Alejandro Tabiloavg 40¢	$6.8	$7.4	+$0.59	26% 229-666 (895)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 59¢	$2.95	$2.82	-$0.13	25% 171-513 (684)

VeryLucky888

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$732.47

Value

$738.78

PnL

+$6.31

Record

51%

252-247 (499)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR

Alejandro Tabilo

Invested

$390.7

Value

$386.05

PnL

-$4.65

Record

3-362 (365)

Flaznorp

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$286.52

Value

$288.99

PnL

+$2.47

Record

50%

1423-1425 (2848)

sentrio<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$65.35

Value

$65.91

PnL

+$0.56

Record

31%

176-393 (569)

VenusianCTR<$100

Alejandro Tabilo

Invested

$25.76

Value

$27.33

PnL

+$1.57

Record

25%

224-671 (895)

LimousinCTR<$100

Alejandro Tabilo

Invested

$6.8

Value

$7.4

PnL

+$0.59

Record

26%

229-666 (895)

ameisgoat11<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$2.95

Value

$2.82

PnL

-$0.13

Record

25%

171-513 (684)

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Sonego at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Sonego

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lorenzo Sonego wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.