Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Lorenzo Sonego, while the market favors Quentin Halys (54%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Quentin Halys

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Lorenzo Sonego (63%) · Lorenzo Sonego at 47¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17

Lorenzo Sonego47¢Quentin Halys53¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lorenzo Sonego

Consensus Traders

Lorenzo Sonego 63%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$17.55

Smart Money Entry

45.3¢ → 46.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Sonego at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Sonego

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Quentin Halys 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lorenzo Sonego47%

Quentin Halys54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lorenzo Sonego5 traders

Total Value$802.27

Total Shares1,725

Combined PnL+$27.38

Quentin Halys3 traders

Total Value$352.33

Total Shares659

Combined PnL-$9.83

Lorenzo Sonego — 63%Quentin Halys — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Lorenzo Sonego. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLorenzo Sonego 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedLorenzo Sonego 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lorenzo Sonego 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 46¢	$446.47	$451.32	+$4.85	30% 107-247 (354)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3	Quentin Halysavg 55¢	$239.64	$233.1	-$6.54	1% 2-236 (238)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 44¢	$200.2	$211.58	+$11.38	52% 242-227 (469)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1	Quentin Halysavg 55¢	$217.85	$116.55	-$3.27	1% 4-268 (272)
VeryLucky888CTR	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 45.2¢	$541.25	$108.19	+$10.81	48% 61-65 (126)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 45¢	$23.03	$23.28	+$0.25	24% 84-270 (354)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Lorenzo Sonegoavg 46¢	$7.82	$7.9	+$0.09	42% 28-38 (66)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Quentin Halysavg 55¢	$2.7	$2.68	-$0.03	19% 44-191 (235)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$446.47

Value

$451.32

PnL

+$4.85

Record

30%

107-247 (354)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3

Quentin Halys

Invested

$239.64

Value

$233.1

PnL

-$6.54

Record

2-236 (238)

FlaznorpCTR

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$200.2

Value

$211.58

PnL

+$11.38

Record

52%

242-227 (469)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1

Quentin Halys

Invested

$217.85

Value

$116.55

PnL

-$3.27

Record

4-268 (272)

VeryLucky888CTR

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$541.25

Value

$108.19

PnL

+$10.81

Record

48%

61-65 (126)

VenusianCTR<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$23.03

Value

$23.28

PnL

+$0.25

Record

24%

84-270 (354)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Lorenzo Sonego

Invested

$7.82

Value

$7.9

PnL

+$0.09

Record

42%

28-38 (66)

ameisgoat11<$100

Quentin Halys

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.68

PnL

-$0.03

Record

19%

44-191 (235)

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Sonego at 47%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Sonego

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Quentin Halys 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Lorenzo Sonego. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLorenzo Sonego 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedLorenzo Sonego 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lorenzo Sonego 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lorenzo Sonego wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.