Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo, while the market favors Joao Lucas Da Silva (56%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Lima: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo (80%) · Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo at 45¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 21

Joao Lucas Da Silva56¢Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo44¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Consensus Traders

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 80%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$49.75

Smart Money Entry

45.3¢ → 44.5¢

-2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Joao Lucas Da Silva 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Joao Lucas Da Silva56%

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo8 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,511

Combined PnL+$25.92

Joao Lucas Da Silva2 traders

Total Value$357.54

Total Shares646

Combined PnL+$23.83

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo — 80%Joao Lucas Da Silva — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 45¢	$647.4	$661.79	+$14.39	53% 40-35 (75)
VeryLucky888CTR	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 45¢	$675	$623.39	+$8.15	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 46¢	$480.7	$480.35	-$0.35	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 51.6¢	$309.56	$333.16	+$23.6	4% 14-329 (343)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 45¢	$124.65	$127.42	+$2.77	48% 286-306 (592)
SE sentrioCTR	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 45.1¢	$103.43	$104.42	+$0.99	42% 995-1363 (2358)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 46¢	$46.46	$46.46	-$0	56% 463-370 (833)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 53¢	$24.15	$24.38	+$0.23	46% 492-580 (1072)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 46¢	$21.16	$21.16	-$0	50% 1587-1614 (3201)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.28	-$0.02	41% 694-1010 (1704)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$647.4

Value

$661.79

PnL

+$14.39

Record

53%

40-35 (75)

VeryLucky888CTR

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$675

Value

$623.39

PnL

+$8.15

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

FlaznorpCTR

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$480.7

Value

$480.35

PnL

-$0.35

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$309.56

Value

$333.16

PnL

+$23.6

Record

14-329 (343)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$124.65

Value

$127.42

PnL

+$2.77

Record

48%

286-306 (592)

sentrioCTR

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$103.43

Value

$104.42

PnL

+$0.99

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$46.46

Value

$46.46

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$24.15

Value

$24.38

PnL

+$0.23

Record

46%

492-580 (1072)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$21.16

Value

$21.16

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

1587-1614 (3201)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$0.02

Record

41%

694-1010 (1704)

Research grade

NeutralNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo at 45%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Joao Lucas Da Silva 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.