Lima: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Gonzalo Bueno

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Gonzalo Bueno (47%) · Gonzalo Bueno at 61¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 19

Joao Lucas Da Silva39¢Gonzalo Bueno61¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Gonzalo Bueno

Consensus Traders

Gonzalo Bueno 47%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$14.5

Smart Money Entry

42.2¢ → 61¢

+45% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralGonzalo Bueno at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gonzalo Bueno

8 of 17 top traders (47%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Joao Lucas Da Silva39%

Gonzalo Bueno61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gonzalo Bueno8 traders

Total Value$580.71

Total Shares1,243

Combined PnL+$45.23

Joao Lucas Da Silva9 traders

Total Value$583.46

Total Shares1,135

Combined PnL-$30.73

Gonzalo Bueno — 47%Joao Lucas Da Silva — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Gonzalo Bueno. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpJoao Lucas Da Silva 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGonzalo Bueno 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Joao Lucas Da Silva 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Gonzalo Buenoavg 42¢	$243.18	$259.25	+$16.07	51% 2691-2616 (5307)
HY hydra1248CTR	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 59¢	$260.65	$242.98	-$17.67	78% 130-37 (167)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Gonzalo Buenoavg 40.6¢	$140.5	$155.7	+$15.2	54% 217-187 (404)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 40.3¢	$99.29	$94.86	-$4.43	51% 2100-2043 (4143)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 57¢	$94.05	$90.75	-$3.3	43% 69-93 (162)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 57¢	$87.56	$84.49	-$3.07	28% 171-442 (613)
DV dv-pm<$100	Gonzalo Buenoavg 41¢	$55.35	$62.1	+$6.75	43% 13-17 (30)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Gonzalo Buenoavg 41¢	$53.41	$59.88	+$6.47	61% 969-610 (1579)
PA pauleta23<$100	Gonzalo Buenoavg 61¢	$30	$30.26	+$0.26	35% 303-552 (855)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 58.7¢	$26.98	$25.3	-$1.68	49% 1097-1151 (2248)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 55¢	$22	$22	+$0	43% 739-963 (1702)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 58.8¢	$15.86	$14.83	-$1.03	65% 144-78 (222)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Gonzalo Buenoavg 43¢	$10	$10.46	+$0.46	43% 108-141 (249)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 59¢	$5.9	$5.5	-$0.4	38% 507-819 (1326)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 38¢	$1.9	$2.75	+$0.85	42% 289-394 (683)
tradecraft<$100	Gonzalo Buenoavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.25	+$0	23% 192-655 (847)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Gonzalo Buenoavg 44¢	$0.79	$0.8	+$0.02	56% 3917-3081 (6998)

Flaznorp

Gonzalo Bueno

Invested

$243.18

Value

$259.25

PnL

+$16.07

Record

51%

2691-2616 (5307)

hydra1248CTR

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$260.65

Value

$242.98

PnL

-$17.67

Record

78%

130-37 (167)

LeLynxMalynx

Gonzalo Bueno

Invested

$140.5

Value

$155.7

PnL

+$15.2

Record

54%

217-187 (404)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$99.29

Value

$94.86

PnL

-$4.43

Record

51%

2100-2043 (4143)

efntrickCTR<$100

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$94.05

Value

$90.75

PnL

-$3.3

Record

43%

69-93 (162)

GC-PCTR<$100

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$87.56

Value

$84.49

PnL

-$3.07

Record

28%

171-442 (613)

dv-pm<$100

Gonzalo Bueno

Invested

$55.35

Value

$62.1

PnL

+$6.75

Record

43%

13-17 (30)

darkumbreon88<$100

Gonzalo Bueno

Invested

$53.41

Value

$59.88

PnL

+$6.47

Record

61%

969-610 (1579)

pauleta23<$100

Gonzalo Bueno

Invested

$30

Value

$30.26

PnL

+$0.26

Record

35%

303-552 (855)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$26.98

Value

$25.3

PnL

-$1.68

Record

49%

1097-1151 (2248)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$22

Value

$22

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

739-963 (1702)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$15.86

Value

$14.83

PnL

-$1.03

Record

65%

144-78 (222)

glennyorkshire<$100

Gonzalo Bueno

Invested

$10

Value

$10.46

PnL

+$0.46

Record

43%

108-141 (249)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$5.9

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$0.4

Record

38%

507-819 (1326)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Joao Lucas Da Silva

Invested

$1.9

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$0.85

Record

42%

289-394 (683)

tradecraft<$100

Gonzalo Bueno

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0

Record

23%

192-655 (847)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Gonzalo Bueno

Invested

$0.79

Value

$0.8

PnL

+$0.02

Record

56%

3917-3081 (6998)

Research grade

NeutralGonzalo Bueno at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Gonzalo Bueno

8 of 17 top traders (47%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Gonzalo Bueno. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpJoao Lucas Da Silva 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGonzalo Bueno 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Joao Lucas Da Silva 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gonzalo Bueno wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.