Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hikaru Shiraishi, while the market favors Ognjen Milic (56%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Matsuyama: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Ognjen Milic

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Hikaru Shiraishi (25%) · Hikaru Shiraishi at 45¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 17

Hikaru Shiraishi45¢Ognjen Milic55¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hikaru Shiraishi

Consensus Traders

Hikaru Shiraishi 25%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$20.65

Smart Money Entry

42.3¢ → 44.5¢

+5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralHikaru Shiraishi at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hikaru Shiraishi

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Ognjen Milic 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hikaru Shiraishi45%

Ognjen Milic56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hikaru Shiraishi2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,281

Combined PnL+$49.94

Ognjen Milic6 traders

Total Value$839.21

Total Shares1,506

Combined PnL-$29.29

Hikaru Shiraishi — 25%Ognjen Milic — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Hikaru Shiraishi. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedOgnjen Milic 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Ognjen Milic 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Hikaru Shiraishiavg 42.3¢	$952.5	$1.0K	+$49.19	—
0xheavy888	Ognjen Milicavg 58¢	$470.96	$450.66	-$20.3	—
FL Flaznorp	Ognjen Milicavg 57¢	$199.5	$194.25	-$5.25	—
VeryLucky888	Ognjen Milicavg 57.8¢	$138.6	$119.7	-$1.2	—
SE sentrio<$100	Ognjen Milicavg 57¢	$46.98	$45.74	-$1.24	—
PA Pan9X<$100	Ognjen Milicavg 58¢	$47	$26.09	-$1.18	—
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Hikaru Shiraishiavg 42¢	$12.59	$13.34	+$0.75	—
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Ognjen Milicavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.78	-$0.13	—

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Hikaru Shiraishi

Invested

$952.5

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$49.19

Record

—

0xheavy888

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$470.96

Value

$450.66

PnL

-$20.3

Record

—

Flaznorp

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$199.5

Value

$194.25

PnL

-$5.25

Record

—

VeryLucky888

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$138.6

Value

$119.7

PnL

-$1.2

Record

—

sentrio<$100

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$46.98

Value

$45.74

PnL

-$1.24

Record

—

Pan9X<$100

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$47

Value

$26.09

PnL

-$1.18

Record

—

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Hikaru Shiraishi

Invested

$12.59

Value

$13.34

PnL

+$0.75

Record

—

ameisgoat11<$100

Ognjen Milic

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.78

PnL

-$0.13

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralHikaru Shiraishi at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Hikaru Shiraishi

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Ognjen Milic 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Hikaru Shiraishi. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedOgnjen Milic 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Ognjen Milic 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hikaru Shiraishi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.