Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Jan Kumstat — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Jan Kumstat
Taipei: Yuta Shimizu vs Jan Kumstat
Resolved Jan Kumstat. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Jan Kumstat. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Jan Kumstat 71%
4 arb excluded
$17.5K
$1.1K
Smart Money Signal
13 of 18 top traders (72%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PE pelik | Jan Kumstatavg 99.9¢ | $6.9K | $6.9K | +$6.86 | 99% 5160-74 (5234) |
65 6512395314597884 | Jan Kumstatavg 71¢ | $4.8K | $6.6K | +$1.8K | 51% 4967-4821 (9788) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Yuta Shimizuavg 31.6¢ | $2.0K | $1.3K | -$679.84 | 53% 62226-54444 (116670) |
| └ Jan Kumstat leg | Jan Kumstatavg 53.3¢ | $700.17 | $1.3K | +$613.95 | |
| └ Yuta Shimizu leg | Yuta Shimizuavg 31.6¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.3K | |
MA MadridTimeARB<$100 | Jan Kumstatavg 77.9¢ | $888.82 | $864.52 | -$24.3 | 48% 1730-1861 (3591) |
| └ Jan Kumstat leg | Jan Kumstatavg 77.9¢ | $673.54 | $864.52 | +$190.98 | |
| └ Yuta Shimizu leg | Yuta Shimizuavg 21.9¢ | $215.28 | — | -$215.28 | |
LI LimousinCTR | Yuta Shimizuavg 19.9¢ | $674.43 | — | -$674.43 | 50% 1808-1796 (3604) |
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100 | Jan Kumstatavg 80¢ | $841.25 | $474.51 | -$258.09 | 60% 4503-3004 (7507) |
| └ Jan Kumstat leg | Jan Kumstatavg 80¢ | $379.58 | $474.51 | +$97.15 | |
| └ Yuta Shimizu leg | Yuta Shimizuavg 38.3¢ | $331.16 | — | -$355.24 | |
LI LightParadoxARB<$100 | Yuta Shimizuavg 24.7¢ | $638.38 | $196 | -$442.38 | 49% 1756-1850 (3606) |
| └ Yuta Shimizu leg | Yuta Shimizuavg 24.7¢ | $469.2 | — | -$469.2 | |
| └ Jan Kumstat leg | Jan Kumstatavg 86.3¢ | $169.17 | $196 | +$26.83 | |
VE VenusianCTR | Yuta Shimizuavg 32.2¢ | $510.44 | — | -$510.44 | 49% 1790-1872 (3662) |
VI vibing123 | Jan Kumstatavg 58.5¢ | $176.14 | $301 | +$124.86 | 52% 1663-1556 (3219) |
38 38791873984189 | Jan Kumstatavg 59.5¢ | $173.41 | $291.6 | +$118.19 | 48% 62298-67159 (129457) |
1L 1lovejump | Jan Kumstatavg 68.6¢ | $737.66 | $288.22 | +$188.76 | 53% 825-731 (1556) |
 TRCMCTR | Yuta Shimizuavg 40.3¢ | $492.9 | — | -$492.9 | 55% 4078-3288 (7366) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yuta Shimizuavg 39.5¢ | $352.97 | — | -$352.97 | 58% 47408-34193 (81601) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Jan Kumstatavg 71.5¢ | $70.86 | $84.76 | +$13.9 | 50% 21519-21799 (43318) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Jan Kumstatavg 82.7¢ | $69.5 | $84 | +$14.5 | 54% 6320-5388 (11708) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100 | Jan Kumstatavg 64.7¢ | $51.15 | $54.62 | +$3.47 | 52% 14641-13306 (27947) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Jan Kumstatavg 81.4¢ | $48.84 | $60 | +$11.16 | 57% 19418-14368 (33786) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Jan Kumstatavg 60¢ | $31.64 | $50 | +$7.74 | 56% 8185-6496 (14681) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Jan Kumstatavg 83.1¢ | $20.05 | $24.12 | +$4.08 | 50% 26346-25970 (52316) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Yuta Shimizuavg 0.7¢ | $0.65 | — | -$0.65 | 47% 9510-10646 (20156) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Jan Kumstatavg 60.1¢ | $49.33 | $12 | +$0.78 | 54% 10365-8691 (19056) |
PR prabam | Jan Kumstatavg 65.3¢ | $1.5K | — | +$783.04 | 68% 34-16 (50) |
Invested
$6,855.99
Value
$6.9K
PnL
+$6.86
Record
99%
5160-74 (5234)
Invested
$4,773.5
Value
$6.6K
PnL
+$1.8K
Record
51%
4967-4821 (9788)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,993.95
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$679.84
Record
53%
62226-54444 (116670)
Both legs:
Invested
$888.82
Value
$864.52
PnL
-$24.3
Record
48%
1730-1861 (3591)
Both legs:
Invested
$674.43
Value
—
PnL
-$674.43
Record
50%
1808-1796 (3604)
Invested
$841.25
Value
$474.51
PnL
-$258.09
Record
60%
4503-3004 (7507)
Both legs:
Invested
$638.38
Value
$196
PnL
-$442.38
Record
49%
1756-1850 (3606)
Both legs:
Invested
$510.44
Value
—
PnL
-$510.44
Record
49%
1790-1872 (3662)
Invested
$176.14
Value
$301
PnL
+$124.86
Record
52%
1663-1556 (3219)
Invested
$173.41
Value
$291.6
PnL
+$118.19
Record
48%
62298-67159 (129457)
Invested
$737.66
Value
$288.22
PnL
+$188.76
Record
53%
825-731 (1556)
TRCMCTRInvested
$492.9
Value
—
PnL
-$492.9
Record
55%
4078-3288 (7366)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$352.97
Value
—
PnL
-$352.97
Record
58%
47408-34193 (81601)
Invested
$70.86
Value
$84.76
PnL
+$13.9
Record
50%
21519-21799 (43318)
Invested
$69.5
Value
$84
PnL
+$14.5
Record
54%
6320-5388 (11708)
Invested
$51.15
Value
$54.62
PnL
+$3.47
Record
52%
14641-13306 (27947)
Invested
$48.84
Value
$60
PnL
+$11.16
Record
57%
19418-14368 (33786)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$31.64
Value
$50
PnL
+$7.74
Record
56%
8185-6496 (14681)
Invested
$20.05
Value
$24.12
PnL
+$4.08
Record
50%
26346-25970 (52316)
Invested
$0.65
Value
—
PnL
-$0.65
Record
47%
9510-10646 (20156)
Invested
$49.33
Value
$12
PnL
+$0.78
Record
54%
10365-8691 (19056)
Invested
$1,481.25
Value
—
PnL
+$783.04
Record
68%
34-16 (50)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
pelik
Jan Kumstat — $6.9K
6512395314597884
Jan Kumstat — $6.6K
RN1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
MadridTime
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Limousin
CTRYuta Shimizu — $0
thestingsnake
ARBArbitrage — excluded
LightParadox
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Venusian
CTRYuta Shimizu — $0
vibing123
Jan Kumstat — $301
38791873984189
Jan Kumstat — $291.6