Taipei: Yuta Shimizu vs August Holmgren
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold August Holmgren (83%) · August Holmgren at 57¢ · $126 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
August Holmgren
6
August Holmgren 83%
$125.89
-$2.59
59.4¢ → 57.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralAugust Holmgren at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on August Holmgren. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888<$100 | August Holmgrenavg 59¢ | $47.2 | $46 | -$1.2 | 55% 7668-6154 (13822) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | August Holmgrenavg 59.2¢ | $30.03 | $29.16 | -$0.87 | 50% 20420-20739 (41159) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | August Holmgrenavg 60¢ | $26.49 | $25.52 | -$0.97 | 51% 23811-22567 (46378) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yuta Shimizuavg 42¢ | $14.44 | $14.44 | -$0 | 48% 57267-60865 (118132) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | August Holmgrenavg 61¢ | $9.99 | $9.42 | -$0.57 | 74% 2402-842 (3244) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | August Holmgrenavg 56¢ | $29.73 | $1.34 | +$1.03 | 58% 44906-32675 (77581) |
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$47.2
Value
$46
PnL
-$1.2
Record
55%
7668-6154 (13822)
Invested
$30.03
Value
$29.16
PnL
-$0.87
Record
50%
20420-20739 (41159)
Invested
$26.49
Value
$25.52
PnL
-$0.97
Record
51%
23811-22567 (46378)
Invested
$14.44
Value
$14.44
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
57267-60865 (118132)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.42
PnL
-$0.57
Record
74%
2402-842 (3244)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$29.73
Value
$1.34
PnL
+$1.03
Record
58%
44906-32675 (77581)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.