Knoxville: Braden Shick vs Kenta Miyoshi

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Kenta Miyoshi (75%) · Kenta Miyoshi at 85¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 18

Braden Shick16¢Kenta Miyoshi84¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kenta Miyoshi

Consensus Traders

Kenta Miyoshi 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$131.9

Smart Money Entry

85¢ → 84.5¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralKenta Miyoshi at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kenta Miyoshi

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Braden Shick16%

Kenta Miyoshi85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kenta Miyoshi9 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,032

Combined PnL+$104.97

Braden Shick3 traders

Total Value$37.59

Total Shares306

Combined PnL+$26.92

Kenta Miyoshi — 75%Braden Shick — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Kenta Miyoshi. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpKenta Miyoshi 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKenta Miyoshi 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedKenta Miyoshi 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kenta Miyoshi 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Kenta Miyoshiavg 84.9¢	$782.35	$814.53	+$32.19	28% 284-730 (1014)
VE Venusian	Kenta Miyoshiavg 88.8¢	$507.21	$485.03	-$22.18	28% 278-729 (1007)
TH thestingsnake	Kenta Miyoshiavg 67.6¢	$311.68	$401.01	+$91.93	20% 93-362 (455)
MA MadridTime	Kenta Miyoshiavg 93¢	$390.6	$388.5	-$2.1	28% 278-703 (981)
FL Flaznorp	Kenta Miyoshiavg 90¢	$319.59	$319.7	+$0.1	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
LI LightParadox	Kenta Miyoshiavg 91¢	$191.91	$187.11	-$0.73	28% 274-715 (989)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Kenta Miyoshiavg 72¢	$126.3	$132.09	+$5.79	54% 1656-1433 (3089)
└ Kenta Miyoshi leg	Kenta Miyoshiavg 72¢	$77.14	$98.04	+$20.89
└ Braden Shick leg	Braden Shickavg 12.3¢	$49.16	$34.05	-$15.11
PA pauleta23<$100	Kenta Miyoshiavg 81.8¢	$89.99	$96.21	+$6.22	25% 147-446 (593)
machinelearned<$100	Kenta Miyoshiavg 87¢	$43.5	$43.75	+$0.25	37% 395-676 (1071)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Braden Shickavg 9.9¢	$200.39	$34.51	+$26.87	42% 94-132 (226)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Kenta Miyoshiavg 89¢	$17.8	$17.1	-$0.7	18% 106-474 (580)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Braden Shickavg 11¢	$2.23	$2.33	+$0.1	20% 100-388 (488)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Braden Shickavg 8¢	$0.8	$0.75	-$0.05	50% 82-83 (165)

Limousin

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$782.35

Value

$814.53

PnL

+$32.19

Record

28%

284-730 (1014)

Venusian

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$507.21

Value

$485.03

PnL

-$22.18

Record

28%

278-729 (1007)

thestingsnake

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$311.68

Value

$401.01

PnL

+$91.93

Record

20%

93-362 (455)

MadridTime

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$390.6

Value

$388.5

PnL

-$2.1

Record

28%

278-703 (981)

Flaznorp

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$319.59

Value

$319.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

LightParadox

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$191.91

Value

$187.11

PnL

-$0.73

Record

28%

274-715 (989)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$126.3

Value

$132.09

PnL

+$5.79

Record

54%

1656-1433 (3089)

Both legs:

Kenta Miyoshi$77.1472¢+$20.89

Braden Shick$49.1612.3¢-$15.11

pauleta23<$100

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$89.99

Value

$96.21

PnL

+$6.22

Record

25%

147-446 (593)

machinelearned<$100

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$43.5

Value

$43.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

37%

395-676 (1071)

thirdt1meCTR

Braden Shick

Invested

$200.39

Value

$34.51

PnL

+$26.87

Record

42%

94-132 (226)

BillBenter2026<$100

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$17.8

Value

$17.1

PnL

-$0.7

Record

18%

106-474 (580)

babybellsCTR<$100

Braden Shick

Invested

$2.23

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0.1

Record

20%

100-388 (488)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Braden Shick

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

82-83 (165)

Research grade

NeutralKenta Miyoshi at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kenta Miyoshi

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Kenta Miyoshi. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpKenta Miyoshi 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKenta Miyoshi 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedKenta Miyoshi 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kenta Miyoshi 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kenta Miyoshi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.