Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Casper Ruud, while the market favors Alexander Shevchenko (100%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Set Handicap: Casper Ruud (-1.5) vs Alexander Shevchenko (+1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Casper Ruud (40%) · Casper Ruud at 0.5¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 18
⚠️
Avoid
Casper Ruud
5
Casper Ruud 40%
$11.3K
$531.41
60.2¢ → 0.5¢
-99% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidCasper Ruud at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Alexander Shevchenko 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Casper Ruud. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH ch27erCTR | Casper Ruudavg 60.2¢ | $7.5K | $8.2K | +$725.31 | 21% 12-45 (57) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Alexander Shevchenkoavg 40.3¢ | $2.8K | $2.6K | -$158.75 | 59% 437-299 (736) |
 VeryLucky888 | Alexander Shevchenkoavg 42¢ | $656.75 | $424.76 | -$34.11 | 52% 463-433 (896) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Casper Ruudavg 55.1¢ | $26.98 | $26.39 | -$0.59 | 62% 1325-796 (2121) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Alexander Shevchenkoavg 42.5¢ | $4.25 | $3.8 | -$0.45 | 32% 295-621 (916) |
Invested
$7,500
Value
$8.2K
PnL
+$725.31
Record
21%
12-45 (57)
Invested
$2,779.34
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$158.75
Record
59%
437-299 (736)
VeryLucky888Invested
$656.75
Value
$424.76
PnL
-$34.11
Record
52%
463-433 (896)
Invested
$26.98
Value
$26.39
PnL
-$0.59
Record
62%
1325-796 (2121)
Invested
$4.25
Value
$3.8
PnL
-$0.45
Record
32%
295-621 (916)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.