Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ben Shelton, while the market favors Tommy Paul (55%). 6 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Tommy Paul

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Ben Shelton (46%) · Ben Shelton at 46¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 13

Ben Shelton46¢Tommy Paul54¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ben Shelton

Consensus Traders

Ben Shelton 46%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.0K

Combined PnL

$241.41

Smart Money Entry

45¢ → 45.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBen Shelton at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ben Shelton

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Tommy Paul 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ben Shelton46%

Tommy Paul55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ben Shelton6 traders

Total Value$11.6K

Total Shares25,219

Combined PnL+$228.52

Tommy Paul7 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares8,704

Combined PnL+$12.89

Ben Shelton — 46%Tommy Paul — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Ben Shelton. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Tommy Paul) and the top 1000 (12 on Ben Shelton) disagree here.

whaleTommy Paul 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBen Shelton 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedTommy Paul 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Ben Shelton 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Ben Sheltonavg 45¢	$9.8K	$10.0K	+$218.03	50% 4460-4385 (8845)
VeryLucky888	Tommy Paulavg 54¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$0	58% 46985-33882 (80867)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Tommy Paulavg 54.2¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$25.69	64% 10080-5683 (15763)
└ Tommy Paul leg	Tommy Paulavg 54.2¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$4.31
└ Ben Shelton leg	Ben Sheltonavg 45¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$30
NM NM-PARB<$100	Tommy Paulavg 54.2¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$25.69	64% 10045-5612 (15657)
└ Tommy Paul leg	Tommy Paulavg 54.2¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$4.31
└ Ben Shelton leg	Ben Sheltonavg 45¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$30
SE sentrio	Tommy Paulavg 54¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$10.73	50% 26039-25715 (51754)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR	Ben Sheltonavg 45¢	$586.95	$586.95	+$0	45% 423-507 (930)
HI hi774cCTR	Ben Sheltonavg 44¢	$454.16	$464.48	+$10.32	46% 5242-6085 (11327)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Ben Sheltonavg 45¢	$364.85	$364.85	-$0	61% 14437-9366 (23803)
38 38791873984189	Tommy Paulavg 54¢	$107.99	$215.99	+$2	48% 61641-66525 (128166)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Ben Sheltonavg 45¢	$95.38	$95.38	+$0	64% 2006-1117 (3123)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Tommy Paulavg 54¢	$45.33	$45.33	-$0	51% 26264-24900 (51164)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Ben Sheltonavg 45¢	$40.2	$31.02	+$0.17	54% 10007-8409 (18416)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Tommy Paulavg 54¢	$26.99	$26.99	+$0.25	54% 6299-5359 (11658)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Tommy Paulavg 55¢	$10	$9.82	-$0.09	53% 2609-2302 (4911)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Tommy Paulavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.7	+$0	52% 8817-8025 (16842)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Ben Shelton

Invested

$9,811.31

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$218.03

Record

50%

4460-4385 (8845)

VeryLucky888

Tommy Paul

Invested

$3,239.87

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

46985-33882 (80867)

GC-PARB<$100

Tommy Paul

Invested

$2,856.85

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$25.69

Record

64%

10080-5683 (15763)

Both legs:

Tommy Paul$1,506.8754.2¢-$4.31

Ben Shelton$1,349.9845¢+$30

NM-PARB<$100

Tommy Paul

Invested

$2,856.83

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$25.69

Record

64%

10045-5612 (15657)

Both legs:

Tommy Paul$1,506.8454.2¢-$4.31

Ben Shelton$1,35045¢+$30

sentrio

Tommy Paul

Invested

$1,159.25

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$10.73

Record

50%

26039-25715 (51754)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR

Ben Shelton

Invested

$586.95

Value

$586.95

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

423-507 (930)

hi774cCTR

Ben Shelton

Invested

$454.16

Value

$464.48

PnL

+$10.32

Record

46%

5242-6085 (11327)

LilybaeumCTR

Ben Shelton

Invested

$364.85

Value

$364.85

PnL

-$0

Record

61%

14437-9366 (23803)

38791873984189

Tommy Paul

Invested

$107.99

Value

$215.99

PnL

+$2

Record

48%

61641-66525 (128166)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Ben Shelton

Invested

$95.38

Value

$95.38

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

2006-1117 (3123)

Flaznorp<$100

Tommy Paul

Invested

$45.33

Value

$45.33

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

26264-24900 (51164)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Ben Shelton

Invested

$40.2

Value

$31.02

PnL

+$0.17

Record

54%

10007-8409 (18416)

Eulhunter<$100

Tommy Paul

Invested

$26.99

Value

$26.99

PnL

+$0.25

Record

54%

6299-5359 (11658)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Tommy Paul

Invested

$10

Value

$9.82

PnL

-$0.09

Record

53%

2609-2302 (4911)

ameisgoat11<$100

Tommy Paul

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

8817-8025 (16842)

Research grade

NeutralBen Shelton at 46%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Ben Shelton

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Tommy Paul 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Ben Shelton. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Tommy Paul) and the top 1000 (12 on Ben Shelton) disagree here.

whaleTommy Paul 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBen Shelton 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedTommy Paul 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Ben Shelton 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ben Shelton wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.