Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Arthur Fils, while the market favors Ben Shelton (62%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

ATP World Tour Finals, John McEnroe Group: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Fils

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Arthur Fils (70%) · Arthur Fils at 39¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 22

Ben Shelton62¢Arthur Fils38¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Arthur Fils

Consensus Traders

Arthur Fils 70%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$10.12

Smart Money Entry

38¢ → 38.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralArthur Fils at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arthur Fils

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Ben Shelton 62%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ben Shelton62%

Arthur Fils39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arthur Fils7 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares6,321

Combined PnL+$13.22

Ben Shelton3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,289

Combined PnL-$3.1

Arthur Fils — 70%Ben Shelton — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Arthur Fils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Ben Shelton) and the top 1000 (7 on Arthur Fils) disagree here.

whaleArthur Fils 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBen Shelton 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedBen Shelton 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Arthur Fils 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Arthur Filsavg 38¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0	11% 28-224 (252)
VeryLucky888	Ben Sheltonavg 61.9¢	$2.1K	$876.55	-$2.94	53% 1889-1648 (3537)
OM omnibus-076daa	Ben Sheltonavg 61¢	$521.39	$521.13	-$0.26	46% 631-739 (1370)
GC GC-PCTR	Arthur Filsavg 38¢	$355.9	$360.6	+$4.7	42% 548-747 (1295)
NM NM-PCTR	Arthur Filsavg 38¢	$354.39	$359.06	+$4.66	59% 3949-2729 (6678)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Arthur Filsavg 38¢	$280.82	$284.52	+$3.69	48% 471-508 (979)
fyrskenCTR	Arthur Filsavg 38¢	$227.99	$227.99	+$0	49% 67-71 (138)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Arthur Filsavg 38¢	$19	$19.25	+$0.25	53% 217-191 (408)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3<$100	Ben Sheltonavg 61¢	$5.88	$5.98	+$0.1	3% 11-371 (382)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Arthur Filsavg 38.7¢	$4.89	$4.8	-$0.09	56% 651-514 (1165)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Arthur Fils

Invested

$1,159

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

11%

28-224 (252)

VeryLucky888

Ben Shelton

Invested

$2,115.43

Value

$876.55

PnL

-$2.94

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

omnibus-076daa

Ben Shelton

Invested

$521.39

Value

$521.13

PnL

-$0.26

Record

46%

631-739 (1370)

GC-PCTR

Arthur Fils

Invested

$355.9

Value

$360.6

PnL

+$4.7

Record

42%

548-747 (1295)

NM-PCTR

Arthur Fils

Invested

$354.39

Value

$359.06

PnL

+$4.66

Record

59%

3949-2729 (6678)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Arthur Fils

Invested

$280.82

Value

$284.52

PnL

+$3.69

Record

48%

471-508 (979)

fyrskenCTR

Arthur Fils

Invested

$227.99

Value

$227.99

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

67-71 (138)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Arthur Fils

Invested

$19

Value

$19.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

217-191 (408)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3<$100

Ben Shelton

Invested

$5.88

Value

$5.98

PnL

+$0.1

Record

11-371 (382)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Arthur Fils

Invested

$4.89

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$0.09

Record

56%

651-514 (1165)

Research grade

NeutralArthur Fils at 39%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Arthur Fils

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Ben Shelton 62%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Arthur Fils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Ben Shelton) and the top 1000 (7 on Arthur Fils) disagree here.

whaleArthur Fils 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBen Shelton 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedBen Shelton 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Arthur Fils 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arthur Fils wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.