Knoxville: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Harry Wendelken

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Abedallah Shelbayh (80%) · Abedallah Shelbayh at 68¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 16

Abedallah Shelbayh68¢Harry Wendelken32¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Abedallah Shelbayh

Consensus Traders

Abedallah Shelbayh 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$712.87

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 67.5¢

+44% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralAbedallah Shelbayh at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Abedallah Shelbayh

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Abedallah Shelbayh68%

Harry Wendelken33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Abedallah Shelbayh8 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares5,535

Combined PnL+$780.27

Harry Wendelken2 traders

Total Value$152.67

Total Shares549

Combined PnL-$67.4

Abedallah Shelbayh — 80%Harry Wendelken — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Abedallah Shelbayh. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAbedallah Shelbayh 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedAbedallah Shelbayh 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Abedallah Shelbayh 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AC Accomplished-Framework	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 43¢	$1.4K	$2.2K	+$798.14	— 5-6 (11)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Harry Wendelkenavg 53.2¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$498.32	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
└ Harry Wendelken leg	Harry Wendelkenavg 53.2¢	$1.5K	$908.11	-$579.67
└ Abedallah Shelbayh leg	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 44¢	$152.3	$233.65	+$81.34
VeryLucky888	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 46.3¢	$689.08	$578.86	-$66.8	51% 330-315 (645)
TH thestingsnake	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 66.7¢	$282.32	$281.61	-$0.71	21% 96-364 (460)
VE Venusian	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 67.1¢	$247.6	$257.88	+$10.28	28% 304-772 (1076)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Harry Wendelkenavg 40¢	$216.89	$149.25	-$67.64	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
MA MadridTime<$100	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 62.6¢	$81.4	$87.1	+$5.7	29% 307-748 (1055)
LI LightParadox<$100	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 29¢	$58.17	$86.25	+$28.08	28% 298-765 (1063)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Harry Wendelkenavg 57¢	$60.29	$62.04	+$1.74	21% 102-389 (491)
└ Harry Wendelken leg	Harry Wendelkenavg 57¢	$37.05	$37.05	+$0
└ Abedallah Shelbayh leg	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 40¢	$23.24	$24.99	+$1.74
EU Eulhunter<$100	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 38¢	$13.76	$20.61	+$6.85	49% 83-87 (170)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 71.2¢	$13.53	$12.26	-$1.28	19% 108-475 (583)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Harry Wendelkenavg 53¢	$3.18	$3.42	+$0.24	49% 446-472 (918)

Accomplished-Framework

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$1,372.8

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$798.14

Record

—

5-6 (11)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Harry Wendelken

Invested

$1,640.08

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$498.32

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

Both legs:

Harry Wendelken$1,487.7853.2¢-$579.67

Abedallah Shelbayh$152.344¢+$81.34

VeryLucky888

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$689.08

Value

$578.86

PnL

-$66.8

Record

51%

330-315 (645)

thestingsnake

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$282.32

Value

$281.61

PnL

-$0.71

Record

21%

96-364 (460)

Venusian

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$247.6

Value

$257.88

PnL

+$10.28

Record

28%

304-772 (1076)

FlaznorpCTR

Harry Wendelken

Invested

$216.89

Value

$149.25

PnL

-$67.64

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

MadridTime<$100

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$81.4

Value

$87.1

PnL

+$5.7

Record

29%

307-748 (1055)

LightParadox<$100

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$58.17

Value

$86.25

PnL

+$28.08

Record

28%

298-765 (1063)

babybellsARB<$100

Harry Wendelken

Invested

$60.29

Value

$62.04

PnL

+$1.74

Record

21%

102-389 (491)

Both legs:

Harry Wendelken$37.0557¢+$0

Abedallah Shelbayh$23.2440¢+$1.74

Eulhunter<$100

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$13.76

Value

$20.61

PnL

+$6.85

Record

49%

83-87 (170)

BillBenter2026<$100

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$13.53

Value

$12.26

PnL

-$1.28

Record

19%

108-475 (583)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Harry Wendelken

Invested

$3.18

Value

$3.42

PnL

+$0.24

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

Research grade

NeutralAbedallah Shelbayh at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Abedallah Shelbayh

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Abedallah Shelbayh. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAbedallah Shelbayh 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedAbedallah Shelbayh 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Abedallah Shelbayh 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Abedallah Shelbayh wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.