Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Abedallah Shelbayh, while the market favors Daniel Milavsky (60%). 15 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Knoxville: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Daniel Milavsky

15 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Abedallah Shelbayh (83%) · Abedallah Shelbayh at 41¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 21

Abedallah Shelbayh41¢Daniel Milavsky59¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Abedallah Shelbayh

Consensus Traders

Abedallah Shelbayh 83%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$52.03

Smart Money Entry

39.1¢ → 40.5¢

+4% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralAbedallah Shelbayh at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Abedallah Shelbayh

15 of 18 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Daniel Milavsky 60%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Abedallah Shelbayh41%

Daniel Milavsky60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Abedallah Shelbayh15 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares12,175

Combined PnL+$49.77

Daniel Milavsky3 traders

Total Value$215.15

Total Shares317

Combined PnL+$2.26

Abedallah Shelbayh — 83%Daniel Milavsky — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on Abedallah Shelbayh. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAbedallah Shelbayh 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedAbedallah Shelbayh 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Abedallah Shelbayh 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 39¢	$2.2K	$1.5K	+$34.18	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 39.2¢	$999.32	$1.0K	+$8.23	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
NM NM-PCTR	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 39¢	$493.51	$499.83	+$6.33	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
GC GC-PCTR	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 39¢	$488.83	$495.1	+$6.27	37% 353-603 (956)
RN1CTR	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 38.9¢	$483.4	$478.8	-$4.61	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 40.1¢	$258.66	$254.51	-$4.15	56% 463-370 (833)
38 38791873984189CTR	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 39¢	$214.5	$217.25	+$2.75	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 39¢	$130.83	$132.5	+$1.68	40% 117-177 (294)
EF efntrickCTR	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 39¢	$117	$118.5	+$1.5	44% 86-111 (197)
1L 1lovejump	Daniel Milavskyavg 63¢	$111.54	$109.68	-$1.86	39% 124-195 (319)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 58¢	$91.35	$96.05	+$4.7	43% 180-241 (421)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 40¢	$69.35	$67.61	-$1.73	54% 496-419 (915)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 41¢	$20.42	$19.43	-$1	42% 995-1363 (2358)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 39¢	$18.33	$18.57	+$0.24	50% 1587-1614 (3201)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 61¢	$10	$9.42	-$0.57	44% 161-201 (362)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR<$100	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 39¢	$6.24	$6.24	+$0	59% 502-345 (847)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 42¢	$4.2	$4.25	+$0.05	36% 933-1644 (2577)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 44¢	$3.42	$3.46	+$0.04	56% 4060-3170 (7230)

VeryLucky888CTR

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$2,210.27

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$34.18

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

FlaznorpCTR

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$999.32

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$8.23

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

NM-PCTR

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$493.51

Value

$499.83

PnL

+$6.33

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

GC-PCTR

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$488.83

Value

$495.1

PnL

+$6.27

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

RN1CTR

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$483.4

Value

$478.8

PnL

-$4.61

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$258.66

Value

$254.51

PnL

-$4.15

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

38791873984189CTR

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$214.5

Value

$217.25

PnL

+$2.75

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

mouzsynapseCTR

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$130.83

Value

$132.5

PnL

+$1.68

Record

40%

117-177 (294)

efntrickCTR

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$117

Value

$118.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

44%

86-111 (197)

1lovejump

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$111.54

Value

$109.68

PnL

-$1.86

Record

39%

124-195 (319)

NatoAlfista<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$91.35

Value

$96.05

PnL

+$4.7

Record

43%

180-241 (421)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$69.35

Value

$67.61

PnL

-$1.73

Record

54%

496-419 (915)

sentrioCTR<$100

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$20.42

Value

$19.43

PnL

-$1

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$18.33

Value

$18.57

PnL

+$0.24

Record

50%

1587-1614 (3201)

glennyorkshire<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$10

Value

$9.42

PnL

-$0.57

Record

44%

161-201 (362)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR<$100

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$6.24

Value

$6.24

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

502-345 (847)

LimousinCTR<$100

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.25

PnL

+$0.05

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$3.42

Value

$3.46

PnL

+$0.04

Record

56%

4060-3170 (7230)

Research grade

NeutralAbedallah Shelbayh at 41%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Abedallah Shelbayh

15 of 18 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Daniel Milavsky 60%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on Abedallah Shelbayh. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAbedallah Shelbayh 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedAbedallah Shelbayh 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Abedallah Shelbayh 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Abedallah Shelbayh wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.