Knoxville: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Clement Chidekh

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Clement Chidekh (67%) · Clement Chidekh at 97¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 22

Abedallah Shelbayh3¢Clement Chidekh97¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Clement Chidekh

Consensus Traders

Clement Chidekh 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$137.18

Smart Money Entry

87.1¢ → 97.5¢

+12% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralClement Chidekh at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clement Chidekh

12 of 18 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Abedallah Shelbayh3%

Clement Chidekh97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clement Chidekh12 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares7,080

Combined PnL+$196.92

Abedallah Shelbayh6 traders

Total Value$588.67

Total Shares1,806

Combined PnL-$59.73

Clement Chidekh — 67%Abedallah Shelbayh — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Clement Chidekhavg 95.2¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$16.23	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
1L 1lovejump	Clement Chidekhavg 95.3¢	$913.17	$690.44	+$9.36	41% 135-197 (332)
0xheavy888	Clement Chidekhavg 74.4¢	$637.18	$629.88	-$7.31	56% 668-530 (1198)
LI Limousin	Clement Chidekhavg 88.6¢	$593.88	$599.84	+$5.96	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
NO NotJumpCTR	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 27.8¢	$1.0K	$559.74	-$28.34	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
FL Flaznorp	Clement Chidekhavg 70¢	$493.5	$518.18	+$24.67	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
VE Venusian	Clement Chidekhavg 87.9¢	$446.13	$430.87	-$10.06	38% 1354-2217 (3571)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Clement Chidekhavg 81¢	$403.39	$402.19	-$1.2	56% 4169-3265 (7434)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 26.2¢	$682.53	$352.21	-$330.32	50% 2851-2894 (5745)
└ Abedallah Shelbayh leg	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 26.2¢	$620.21	$272.28	-$347.93
└ Clement Chidekh leg	Clement Chidekhavg 69¢	$62.32	$79.94	+$17.61
38 38791873984189	Clement Chidekhavg 70¢	$647.26	$157.86	+$199.71	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
BA babybells	Clement Chidekhavg 70¢	$131.35	$125.67	-$5.68	34% 272-524 (796)
MA MadridTime	Clement Chidekhavg 94¢	$140.45	$89.22	-$51.23	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
TH thestingsnake	Clement Chidekhavg 83.2¢	$114.6	$74.8	+$10.2	36% 256-453 (709)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Clement Chidekhavg 81.5¢	$32.6	$38.86	+$6.26	33% 305-622 (927)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 23.1¢	$44.12	$12.4	-$31.72	53% 220-193 (413)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 26¢	$8.32	$8.48	+$0.16	63% 275-163 (438)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 3.2¢	$4.8	$4.73	-$0.08	46% 882-1039 (1921)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 25¢	$2.73	$2.9	+$0.16	56% 656-516 (1172)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Abedallah Shelbayhavg 7¢	$0.35	$0.43	+$0.08	46% 479-565 (1044)

LightParadox

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$2,762.97

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$16.23

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

1lovejump

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$913.17

Value

$690.44

PnL

+$9.36

Record

41%

135-197 (332)

0xheavy888

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$637.18

Value

$629.88

PnL

-$7.31

Record

56%

668-530 (1198)

Limousin

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$593.88

Value

$599.84

PnL

+$5.96

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

NotJumpCTR

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$1,033.65

Value

$559.74

PnL

-$28.34

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

Flaznorp

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$493.5

Value

$518.18

PnL

+$24.67

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

Venusian

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$446.13

Value

$430.87

PnL

-$10.06

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$403.39

Value

$402.19

PnL

-$1.2

Record

56%

4169-3265 (7434)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$682.53

Value

$352.21

PnL

-$330.32

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

Both legs:

Abedallah Shelbayh$620.2126.2¢-$347.93

Clement Chidekh$62.3269¢+$17.61

38791873984189

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$647.26

Value

$157.86

PnL

+$199.71

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

babybells

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$131.35

Value

$125.67

PnL

-$5.68

Record

34%

272-524 (796)

MadridTime

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$140.45

Value

$89.22

PnL

-$51.23

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

thestingsnake

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$114.6

Value

$74.8

PnL

+$10.2

Record

36%

256-453 (709)

BillBenter2026<$100

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$32.6

Value

$38.86

PnL

+$6.26

Record

33%

305-622 (927)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$44.12

Value

$12.4

PnL

-$31.72

Record

53%

220-193 (413)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$8.32

Value

$8.48

PnL

+$0.16

Record

63%

275-163 (438)

smithagentCTR<$100

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$0.08

Record

46%

882-1039 (1921)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$2.73

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0.16

Record

56%

656-516 (1172)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Abedallah Shelbayh

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.43

PnL

+$0.08

Record

46%

479-565 (1044)

Research grade

NeutralClement Chidekh at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Clement Chidekh

12 of 18 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clement Chidekh wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.