Brisbane 3: Juncheng Shang vs Christian Langmo

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Juncheng Shang (50%) · Juncheng Shang at 86¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 21

Juncheng Shang86¢Christian Langmo14¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Juncheng Shang

Consensus Traders

Juncheng Shang 50%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$2.71

Smart Money Entry

86¢ → 85.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralJuncheng Shang at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Juncheng Shang

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Juncheng Shang86%

Christian Langmo14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Juncheng Shang5 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,701

Combined PnL-$17.82

Christian Langmo5 traders

Total Value$444.85

Total Shares3,029

Combined PnL+$15.11

Juncheng Shang — 50%Christian Langmo — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Juncheng Shang. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleChristian Langmo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpJuncheng Shang 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJuncheng Shang 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedJuncheng Shang 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Juncheng Shang 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Vladooos	Juncheng Shangavg 86¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$14.53	67% 44-22 (66)
VeryLucky888	Juncheng Shangavg 85.9¢	$562.39	$559.46	-$2.93	53% 1186-1032 (2218)
RN1CTR	Christian Langmoavg 14¢	$166.39	$172.33	+$5.94	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Christian Langmoavg 14¢	$151.06	$156.45	+$5.39	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
HY hydra1248	Juncheng Shangavg 86.5¢	$107.92	$107.32	-$0.6	76% 165-53 (218)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Christian Langmoavg 14¢	$82.25	$85.01	+$2.77	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Christian Langmoavg 14¢	$28.14	$29.15	+$1	51% 499-470 (969)
PA Pan9X<$100	Juncheng Shangavg 86¢	$47.67	$16.91	+$0.24	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Juncheng Shangavg 86¢	$4.3	$4.3	+$0	40% 614-914 (1528)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Christian Langmoavg 14¢	$1.9	$1.9	+$0	46% 2359-2814 (5173)

Vladooos

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$14.53

Record

67%

44-22 (66)

VeryLucky888

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$562.39

Value

$559.46

PnL

-$2.93

Record

53%

1186-1032 (2218)

RN1CTR

Christian Langmo

Invested

$166.39

Value

$172.33

PnL

+$5.94

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

FlaznorpCTR

Christian Langmo

Invested

$151.06

Value

$156.45

PnL

+$5.39

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

hydra1248

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$107.92

Value

$107.32

PnL

-$0.6

Record

76%

165-53 (218)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Christian Langmo

Invested

$82.25

Value

$85.01

PnL

+$2.77

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Christian Langmo

Invested

$28.14

Value

$29.15

PnL

+$1

Record

51%

499-470 (969)

Pan9X<$100

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$47.67

Value

$16.91

PnL

+$0.24

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

ameisgoat11<$100

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

614-914 (1528)

suntoriCTR<$100

Christian Langmo

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.9

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

Research grade

NeutralJuncheng Shang at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Juncheng Shang

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Juncheng Shang. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleChristian Langmo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpJuncheng Shang 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJuncheng Shang 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedJuncheng Shang 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Juncheng Shang 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Juncheng Shang wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.