Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Juan Manuel La Serna (54%) · Juan Manuel La Serna at 77¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14

Juan Manuel La Serna77¢Nicolas Kicker23¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Juan Manuel La Serna

Consensus Traders

Juan Manuel La Serna 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

-$389.43

Smart Money Entry

71.1¢ → 76.5¢

+8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralJuan Manuel La Serna at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Juan Manuel La Serna

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Juan Manuel La Serna77%

Nicolas Kicker24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Juan Manuel La Serna7 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,027

Combined PnL+$45.87

Nicolas Kicker6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares5,264

Combined PnL-$435.3

Juan Manuel La Serna — 54%Nicolas Kicker — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 71.1¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$45.98	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 66¢	$746.56	$823.04	+$76.48	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
└ Juan Manuel La Serna leg	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 66¢	$511.5	$592.88	+$81.38
└ Nicolas Kicker leg	Nicolas Kickeravg 24¢	$235.06	$230.16	-$4.9
RN1CTR	Nicolas Kickeravg 36.2¢	$790.82	$754.27	-$36.55	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
VeryLucky888CTR	Nicolas Kickeravg 47¢	$917.17	$589	-$303.48	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
38 38791873984189	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 71.4¢	$275.38	$290.94	+$15.56	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
0xheavy888CTR	Nicolas Kickeravg 47¢	$313.49	$206.77	-$106.72	56% 8223-6528 (14751)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 70¢	$107.99	$98.09	-$9.9	64% 5376-2995 (8371)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 73.8¢	$86.1	$78.99	-$7.11	52% 14650-13314 (27964)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Nicolas Kickeravg 25¢	$58.02	$68.46	+$10.44	60% 4506-3007 (7513)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Nicolas Kickeravg 24¢	$56.16	$54.99	-$1.17	54% 6325-5389 (11714)
PA pauleta23<$100	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 69.9¢	$34.95	$34.75	-$0.2	66% 24445-12494 (36939)
1L 1lovejumpCTR<$100	Nicolas Kickeravg 26.4¢	$19.91	$22.09	+$2.18	53% 827-732 (1559)
machinelearned<$100	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 75¢	$15	$15.3	+$0.3	55% 9930-8242 (18172)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 49¢	$3.03	$4.26	+$1.24	53% 2699-2381 (5080)

ferrariChampions2026

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$2,420.94

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$45.98

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$746.56

Value

$823.04

PnL

+$76.48

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

Both legs:

Juan Manuel La Serna$511.566¢+$81.38

Nicolas Kicker$235.0624¢-$4.9

RN1CTR

Nicolas Kicker

Invested

$790.82

Value

$754.27

PnL

-$36.55

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

VeryLucky888CTR

Nicolas Kicker

Invested

$917.17

Value

$589

PnL

-$303.48

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

38791873984189

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$275.38

Value

$290.94

PnL

+$15.56

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

0xheavy888CTR

Nicolas Kicker

Invested

$313.49

Value

$206.77

PnL

-$106.72

Record

56%

8223-6528 (14751)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$107.99

Value

$98.09

PnL

-$9.9

Record

64%

5376-2995 (8371)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$86.1

Value

$78.99

PnL

-$7.11

Record

52%

14650-13314 (27964)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Nicolas Kicker

Invested

$58.02

Value

$68.46

PnL

+$10.44

Record

60%

4506-3007 (7513)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Nicolas Kicker

Invested

$56.16

Value

$54.99

PnL

-$1.17

Record

54%

6325-5389 (11714)

pauleta23<$100

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$34.95

Value

$34.75

PnL

-$0.2

Record

66%

24445-12494 (36939)

1lovejumpCTR<$100

Nicolas Kicker

Invested

$19.91

Value

$22.09

PnL

+$2.18

Record

53%

827-732 (1559)

machinelearned<$100

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$15

Value

$15.3

PnL

+$0.3

Record

55%

9930-8242 (18172)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$3.03

Value

$4.26

PnL

+$1.24

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

Research grade

NeutralJuan Manuel La Serna at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Juan Manuel La Serna

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Juan Manuel La Serna wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.