Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Hernan Casanova

13 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Juan Manuel La Serna (76%) · Juan Manuel La Serna at 60¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 11

Juan Manuel La Serna60¢Hernan Casanova40¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Juan Manuel La Serna

Consensus Traders

Juan Manuel La Serna 76%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

-$978.78

Smart Money Entry

75.4¢ → 59.5¢

-21% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralJuan Manuel La Serna at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Juan Manuel La Serna

13 of 17 top traders (76%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Juan Manuel La Serna60%

Hernan Casanova41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Juan Manuel La Serna13 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares8,485

Combined PnL-$976.96

Hernan Casanova4 traders

Total Value$44.43

Total Shares266

Combined PnL-$1.82

Juan Manuel La Serna — 76%Hernan Casanova — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 77.6¢	$4.2K	$2.7K	-$223.34	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
└ Juan Manuel La Serna leg	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 77.6¢	$2.2K	$1.7K	-$534.48
└ Hernan Casanova leg	Hernan Casanovaavg 26.3¢	$671.29	$1.1K	+$311.13
MA MadridTime	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 80¢	$2.2K	$1.7K	-$560.44	51% 1093-1042 (2135)
LI LightParadox	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 70.1¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$66.84	52% 1146-1041 (2187)
TH thestingsnake	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 77.2¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$126.04	60% 4348-2912 (7260)
FL Flaznorp	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 75.3¢	$956.35	$731.76	-$224.58	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Hernan Casanovaavg 41.3¢	$704.02	$568.41	-$135.62	52% 1158-1077 (2235)
└ Hernan Casanova leg	Hernan Casanovaavg 41.3¢	$532.24	$386.47	-$145.76
└ Juan Manuel La Serna leg	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 66.1¢	$171.79	$181.93	+$10.14
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 66.1¢	$389.2	$403.1	+$13.9	46% 1391-1643 (3034)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Hernan Casanovaavg 18.1¢	$166.11	$240.29	+$74.19	54% 1189-1028 (2217)
└ Hernan Casanova leg	Hernan Casanovaavg 18.1¢	$103.46	$180.01	+$76.56
└ Juan Manuel La Serna leg	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 71.2¢	$62.65	$60.28	-$2.37
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 81.8¢	$222.41	$216.24	-$6.17	59% 31860-22491 (54351)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 79.8¢	$317.62	$100.96	-$15.4	52% 736-673 (1409)
└ Hernan Casanova leg	Hernan Casanovaavg 29.3¢	$45.02	$63.73	+$23.27
└ Juan Manuel La Serna leg	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 79.8¢	$50.8	$37.23	-$38.67
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 76.4¢	$103.38	$95.53	-$7.85	52% 14224-12997 (27221)
└ Juan Manuel La Serna leg	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 76.4¢	$75.42	$67.66	-$7.76
└ Hernan Casanova leg	Hernan Casanovaavg 31.6¢	$27.96	$27.87	-$0.1
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Hernan Casanovaavg 16.1¢	$40.39	$38.8	-$1.59	47% 11071-12407 (23478)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 68.1¢	$34.56	$35.52	+$0.96	50% 20734-20980 (41714)
CI cigarettes<$100	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 81¢	$40.5	$30.25	-$10.25	53% 22623-19873 (42496)
0xheavy888<$100	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 66¢	$24.5	$25.41	+$0.91	56% 7722-6185 (13907)
RN1<$100	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 63¢	$13.39	$13.49	+$0.11	53% 60059-52427 (112486)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 67¢	$8.8	$10	+$1.2	82% 7015-1513 (8528)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 75¢	$3.75	$3.95	+$0.2	65% 5171-2807 (7978)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 68¢	$2.38	$2.53	+$0.09	54% 6178-5224 (11402)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Hernan Casanovaavg 45.2¢	$2.26	$2.23	-$0.04	57% 19072-14109 (33181)
SC SchruteBucksCTR<$100	Hernan Casanovaavg 36.1¢	$3.61	$1.9	-$0.09	56% 1924-1490 (3414)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Hernan Casanovaavg 32¢	$1.6	$1.5	-$0.1	74% 2421-862 (3283)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$4,178.34

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$223.34

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

Both legs:

Juan Manuel La Serna$2,210.9277.6¢-$534.48

Hernan Casanova$671.2926.3¢+$311.13

MadridTime

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$2,229.98

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$560.44

Record

51%

1093-1042 (2135)

LightParadox

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$1,530.83

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$66.84

Record

52%

1146-1041 (2187)

thestingsnake

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$1,267.29

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$126.04

Record

60%

4348-2912 (7260)

Flaznorp

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$956.35

Value

$731.76

PnL

-$224.58

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

VenusianARB<$100

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$704.02

Value

$568.41

PnL

-$135.62

Record

52%

1158-1077 (2235)

Both legs:

Hernan Casanova$532.2441.3¢-$145.76

Juan Manuel La Serna$171.7966.1¢+$10.14

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$389.2

Value

$403.1

PnL

+$13.9

Record

46%

1391-1643 (3034)

LimousinARB<$100

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$166.11

Value

$240.29

PnL

+$74.19

Record

54%

1189-1028 (2217)

Both legs:

Hernan Casanova$103.4618.1¢+$76.56

Juan Manuel La Serna$62.6571.2¢-$2.37

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$222.41

Value

$216.24

PnL

-$6.17

Record

59%

31860-22491 (54351)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$317.62

Value

$100.96

PnL

-$15.4

Record

52%

736-673 (1409)

Both legs:

Hernan Casanova$45.0229.3¢+$23.27

Juan Manuel La Serna$50.879.8¢-$38.67

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$103.38

Value

$95.53

PnL

-$7.85

Record

52%

14224-12997 (27221)

Both legs:

Juan Manuel La Serna$75.4276.4¢-$7.76

Hernan Casanova$27.9631.6¢-$0.1

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$40.39

Value

$38.8

PnL

-$1.59

Record

47%

11071-12407 (23478)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$34.56

Value

$35.52

PnL

+$0.96

Record

50%

20734-20980 (41714)

cigarettes<$100

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$40.5

Value

$30.25

PnL

-$10.25

Record

53%

22623-19873 (42496)

0xheavy888<$100

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$24.5

Value

$25.41

PnL

+$0.91

Record

56%

7722-6185 (13907)

RN1<$100

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$13.39

Value

$13.49

PnL

+$0.11

Record

53%

60059-52427 (112486)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$8.8

Value

$10

PnL

+$1.2

Record

82%

7015-1513 (8528)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$0.2

Record

65%

5171-2807 (7978)

Eulhunter<$100

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$2.38

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.09

Record

54%

6178-5224 (11402)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$2.26

Value

$2.23

PnL

-$0.04

Record

57%

19072-14109 (33181)

SchruteBucksCTR<$100

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$3.61

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.09

Record

56%

1924-1490 (3414)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.1

Record

74%

2421-862 (3283)

Research grade

NeutralJuan Manuel La Serna at 60%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Juan Manuel La Serna

13 of 17 top traders (76%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Juan Manuel La Serna wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.