Brisbane 3: Tristan Schoolkate vs Cruz Hewitt

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Tristan Schoolkate (59%) · Tristan Schoolkate at 80¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 16

Tristan Schoolkate80¢Cruz Hewitt20¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tristan Schoolkate

Consensus Traders

Tristan Schoolkate 59%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.8K

Combined PnL

$220.2

Smart Money Entry

76.3¢ → 79.5¢

+4% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralTristan Schoolkate at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tristan Schoolkate

10 of 17 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Tristan Schoolkate80%

Cruz Hewitt21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tristan Schoolkate10 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares12,387

Combined PnL+$203.86

Cruz Hewitt7 traders

Total Value$370.13

Total Shares1,468

Combined PnL+$16.34

Tristan Schoolkate — 59%Cruz Hewitt — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Tristan Schoolkateavg 76¢	$5.2K	$5.3K	+$167.22	24% 196-614 (810)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Tristan Schoolkateavg 77¢	$3.9K	$3.6K	-$218.49	54% 1588-1335 (2923)
└ Tristan Schoolkate leg	Tristan Schoolkateavg 77¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$97.28
└ Cruz Hewitt leg	Cruz Hewittavg 24¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$315.77
38 38791873984189	Tristan Schoolkateavg 76.4¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$14.82	48% 674-721 (1395)
FL Flaznorp	Tristan Schoolkateavg 76.3¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$36.5	50% 1362-1381 (2743)
VE Venusian	Tristan Schoolkateavg 80¢	$1.0K	$990.95	-$31.97	24% 200-631 (831)
LI LightParadox	Tristan Schoolkateavg 71.8¢	$235.37	$254.02	+$18.65	24% 197-623 (820)
RN1	Tristan Schoolkateavg 70¢	$212.03	$210.52	-$1.51	58% 3732-2688 (6420)
0xheavy888CTR	Cruz Hewittavg 24¢	$181.71	$185.05	+$3.34	53% 85-74 (159)
BA babybells	Tristan Schoolkateavg 76.5¢	$122.7	$123.13	+$0.43	14% 57-354 (411)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Cruz Hewittavg 21.6¢	$272.55	$83	+$8.45	30% 48-110 (158)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Cruz Hewittavg 23.1¢	$77.6	$82.34	+$4.74	14% 54-323 (377)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Tristan Schoolkateavg 75¢	$64.34	$64.76	+$0.43	52% 46-42 (88)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Tristan Schoolkateavg 75.2¢	$43	$43.16	+$0.16	34% 158-308 (466)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Tristan Schoolkateavg 81.7¢	$16.35	$15.5	-$0.85	11% 54-448 (502)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cruz Hewittavg 24¢	$8.4	$8.58	+$0.17	48% 391-428 (819)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Cruz Hewittavg 25¢	$6.5	$6.24	-$0.26	52% 119-111 (230)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Cruz Hewittavg 15¢	$3.83	$3.7	-$0.13	23% 195-637 (832)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Cruz Hewittavg 24¢	$1.2	$1.23	+$0.03	21% 127-474 (601)

MadridTime

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$5,170.2

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$167.22

Record

24%

196-614 (810)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$3,853.87

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$218.49

Record

54%

1588-1335 (2923)

Both legs:

Tristan Schoolkate$2,167.3177¢+$97.28

Cruz Hewitt$1,686.5624¢-$315.77

38791873984189

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$1,533.96

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$14.82

Record

48%

674-721 (1395)

Flaznorp

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$1,259.77

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$36.5

Record

50%

1362-1381 (2743)

Venusian

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$1,022.92

Value

$990.95

PnL

-$31.97

Record

24%

200-631 (831)

LightParadox

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$235.37

Value

$254.02

PnL

+$18.65

Record

24%

197-623 (820)

RN1

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$212.03

Value

$210.52

PnL

-$1.51

Record

58%

3732-2688 (6420)

0xheavy888CTR

Cruz Hewitt

Invested

$181.71

Value

$185.05

PnL

+$3.34

Record

53%

85-74 (159)

babybells

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$122.7

Value

$123.13

PnL

+$0.43

Record

14%

57-354 (411)

thirdt1meCTR

Cruz Hewitt

Invested

$272.55

Value

$83

PnL

+$8.45

Record

30%

48-110 (158)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Cruz Hewitt

Invested

$77.6

Value

$82.34

PnL

+$4.74

Record

14%

54-323 (377)

Eulhunter<$100

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$64.34

Value

$64.76

PnL

+$0.43

Record

52%

46-42 (88)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$43

Value

$43.16

PnL

+$0.16

Record

34%

158-308 (466)

BillBenter2026<$100

Tristan Schoolkate

Invested

$16.35

Value

$15.5

PnL

-$0.85

Record

11%

54-448 (502)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cruz Hewitt

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.58

PnL

+$0.17

Record

48%

391-428 (819)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Cruz Hewitt

Invested

$6.5

Value

$6.24

PnL

-$0.26

Record

52%

119-111 (230)

LimousinCTR<$100

Cruz Hewitt

Invested

$3.83

Value

$3.7

PnL

-$0.13

Record

23%

195-637 (832)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Cruz Hewitt

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.23

PnL

+$0.03

Record

21%

127-474 (601)

Research grade

NeutralTristan Schoolkate at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Tristan Schoolkate

10 of 17 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tristan Schoolkate wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.