Matsuyama: Max Schoenhaus vs Taro Daniel

8 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Taro Daniel (42%) · Taro Daniel at 100¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 19

Max Schoenhaus<1¢Taro Daniel>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Taro Daniel

Consensus Traders

Taro Daniel 42%

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

-$881.95

Smart Money Entry

81.1¢ → 100¢

+23% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralTaro Daniel at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Taro Daniel

8 of 19 top traders (42%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Max Schoenhaus0%

Taro Daniel100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Taro Daniel8 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares10,257

Combined PnL+$404.37

Max Schoenhaus11 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares11,313

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Taro Daniel — 42%Max Schoenhaus — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Taro Danielavg 81¢	$6.7K	$7.1K	+$372.5	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
TH thirdt1me	Taro Danielavg 80.6¢	$901.85	$900.6	+$26.81	43% 128-168 (296)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Max Schoenhausavg 18.2¢	$923.8	$686.88	-$236.92	32% 444-952 (1396)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Max Schoenhausavg 36¢	$255.94	$253.24	-$2.7	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
LI LightParadox	Taro Danielavg 96¢	$273.7	$234.92	-$36.78	31% 441-967 (1408)
VE Venusian	Taro Danielavg 73.2¢	$196.6	$225.69	+$29.09	31% 444-971 (1415)
38 38791873984189	Taro Danielavg 80¢	$203.19	$201.92	-$1.27	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
1L 1lovejumpCTR	Max Schoenhausavg 34.3¢	$230.76	$122.63	-$108.13	35% 86-162 (248)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Taro Danielavg 85.9¢	$104.82	$109.25	+$4.42	56% 3878-3042 (6920)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Taro Danielavg 81¢	$42.13	$51.97	+$9.84	24% 157-504 (661)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Max Schoenhausavg 26.1¢	$63.65	$47.3	-$7.5	28% 148-389 (537)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Max Schoenhausavg 36¢	$37.85	$37.85	+$0	53% 172-153 (325)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Max Schoenhausavg 36¢	$22.09	$22.09	+$0	43% 60-80 (140)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Max Schoenhausavg 36¢	$36.9	$17.2	+$0.3	49% 786-829 (1615)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Taro Danielavg 64¢	$10	$9.76	-$0.23	50% 72-72 (144)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Max Schoenhausavg 20¢	$869.51	$2.17	-$867.34	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Max Schoenhausavg 10.5¢	$0.76	$0.69	-$0.07	40% 224-340 (564)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Max Schoenhausavg 13.2¢	$64.25	$0.24	-$64	31% 438-969 (1407)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Max Schoenhausavg 3¢	$0.21	$0.24	+$0.03	25% 139-418 (557)

6512395314597884

Taro Daniel

Invested

$6,723.26

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$372.5

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

thirdt1me

Taro Daniel

Invested

$901.85

Value

$900.6

PnL

+$26.81

Record

43%

128-168 (296)

MadridTimeCTR

Max Schoenhaus

Invested

$923.8

Value

$686.88

PnL

-$236.92

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

FlaznorpCTR

Max Schoenhaus

Invested

$255.94

Value

$253.24

PnL

-$2.7

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

LightParadox

Taro Daniel

Invested

$273.7

Value

$234.92

PnL

-$36.78

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

Venusian

Taro Daniel

Invested

$196.6

Value

$225.69

PnL

+$29.09

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

38791873984189

Taro Daniel

Invested

$203.19

Value

$201.92

PnL

-$1.27

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

1lovejumpCTR

Max Schoenhaus

Invested

$230.76

Value

$122.63

PnL

-$108.13

Record

35%

86-162 (248)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Taro Daniel

Invested

$104.82

Value

$109.25

PnL

+$4.42

Record

56%

3878-3042 (6920)

BillBenter2026<$100

Taro Daniel

Invested

$42.13

Value

$51.97

PnL

+$9.84

Record

24%

157-504 (661)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Max Schoenhaus

Invested

$63.65

Value

$47.3

PnL

-$7.5

Record

28%

148-389 (537)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Max Schoenhaus

Invested

$37.85

Value

$37.85

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

172-153 (325)

efntrickCTR<$100

Max Schoenhaus

Invested

$22.09

Value

$22.09

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

60-80 (140)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Max Schoenhaus

Invested

$36.9

Value

$17.2

PnL

+$0.3

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

glennyorkshire<$100

Taro Daniel

Invested

$10

Value

$9.76

PnL

-$0.23

Record

50%

72-72 (144)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Max Schoenhaus

Invested

$869.51

Value

$2.17

PnL

-$867.34

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Max Schoenhaus

Invested

$0.76

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$0.07

Record

40%

224-340 (564)

LimousinCTR<$100

Max Schoenhaus

Invested

$64.25

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$64

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

babybellsCTR<$100

Max Schoenhaus

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.24

PnL

+$0.03

Record

25%

139-418 (557)

Research grade

NeutralTaro Daniel at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Taro Daniel

8 of 19 top traders (42%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Taro Daniel wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.