Matsuyama: Kasidit Samrej vs Yuta Shimizu

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yuta Shimizu (31%) · Yuta Shimizu at 60¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 16

Kasidit Samrej41¢Yuta Shimizu59¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yuta Shimizu

Consensus Traders

Yuta Shimizu 31%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.2K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

46.7¢ → 59.5¢

+27% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYuta Shimizu at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yuta Shimizu

4 of 13 top traders (31%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Kasidit Samrej41%

Yuta Shimizu60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yuta Shimizu4 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares14,065

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Kasidit Samrej9 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,695

Combined PnL-$107.73

Yuta Shimizu — 31%Kasidit Samrej — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 47.7¢	$5.0K	$5.2K	+$158.86	54% 1541-1296 (2837)
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 47.7¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$143.71
└ Yuta Shimizu leg	Yuta Shimizuavg 49.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$15.15
VE VenusianARB<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 50.8¢	$5.7K	$4.7K	-$946.18	24% 184-596 (780)
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 50.8¢	$4.0K	$3.1K	-$903.73
└ Yuta Shimizu leg	Yuta Shimizuavg 62.2¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$42.45
MA MadridTime	Yuta Shimizuavg 62.6¢	$5.1K	$4.6K	-$436.81	23% 176-586 (762)
UB ubetteruuuu	Yuta Shimizuavg 29.4¢	$2.0K	$4.2K	+$2.2K	7% 7-91 (98)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 43.4¢	$3.0K	$3.4K	+$333.55	51% 3095-3009 (6104)
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 43.4¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$272.16
└ Yuta Shimizu leg	Yuta Shimizuavg 47.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$61.4
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 58.8¢	$1.2K	$969.78	-$70.05	48% 603-645 (1248)
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 58.8¢	$660.93	$589.78	-$74.05
└ Yuta Shimizu leg	Yuta Shimizuavg 47¢	$376	$380	+$4
LI LimousinARB<$100	Yuta Shimizuavg 70.7¢	$1.0K	$784.75	-$231.69	23% 174-599 (773)
└ Yuta Shimizu leg	Yuta Shimizuavg 70.7¢	$834	$501.07	-$332.93
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 37¢	$182.45	$283.69	+$101.24
RN1CTR	Kasidit Samrejavg 71¢	$734.83	$627.47	-$107.37	58% 3628-2593 (6221)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Yuta Shimizuavg 57.6¢	$643.63	$352.46	-$166.67	14% 51-322 (373)
└ Yuta Shimizu leg	Yuta Shimizuavg 57.6¢	$221.88	$236.96	-$69.17
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 71¢	$213	$115.5	-$97.5
LI LightParadoxCTR	Kasidit Samrejavg 33.5¢	$349.29	$350.5	+$20.28	23% 176-590 (766)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Yuta Shimizuavg 46¢	$265.43	$282.88	+$17.45	56% 3745-2913 (6658)
└ Yuta Shimizu leg	Yuta Shimizuavg 46¢	$138.77	$182.65	+$43.88
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 49.9¢	$126.66	$100.23	-$26.44
TH thirdt1meCTR	Kasidit Samrejavg 51.5¢	$731.54	$208.57	-$27.65	30% 46-106 (152)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 41.8¢	$172.02	$178.92	+$6.9	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 41.8¢	$87.25	$138.92	+$51.67
└ Yuta Shimizu leg	Yuta Shimizuavg 71¢	$84.77	$40.01	-$44.76
BA babybellsCTR	Kasidit Samrejavg 49.7¢	$253.15	$143.9	+$16.7	14% 55-348 (403)
0xheavy888	Yuta Shimizuavg 65¢	$90.03	$133.89	+$43.86	57% 70-52 (122)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 52.1¢	$81.79	$60.48	-$21.31	18% 89-400 (489)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 53¢	$53.43	$51.96	-$1.47	53% 45-40 (85)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 43¢	$22.95	$34.93	+$11.98	27% 213-562 (775)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Yuta Shimizuavg 63.2¢	$38.98	$31.54	-$7.44	10% 50-444 (494)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 33¢	$1.65	$3.6	+$0.05	20% 113-461 (574)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 35¢	$1	$2.06	+$1.06	4% 16-393 (409)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$5,030.94

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$158.86

Record

54%

1541-1296 (2837)

Both legs:

Kasidit Samrej$3,904.1347.7¢+$143.71

Yuta Shimizu$1,126.8149.8¢+$15.15

VenusianARB<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$5,657.49

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$946.18

Record

24%

184-596 (780)

Both legs:

Kasidit Samrej$4,044.3850.8¢-$903.73

Yuta Shimizu$1,587.6962.2¢-$42.45

MadridTime

Yuta Shimizu

Invested

$5,057.1

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$436.81

Record

23%

176-586 (762)

ubetteruuuu

Yuta Shimizu

Invested

$1,984

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

7-91 (98)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$3,032.65

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$333.55

Record

51%

3095-3009 (6104)

Both legs:

Kasidit Samrej$1,943.7543.4¢+$272.16

Yuta Shimizu$1,088.947.8¢+$61.4

38791873984189ARB<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$1,242.03

Value

$969.78

PnL

-$70.05

Record

48%

603-645 (1248)

Both legs:

Kasidit Samrej$660.9358.8¢-$74.05

Yuta Shimizu$37647¢+$4

LimousinARB<$100

Yuta Shimizu

Invested

$1,016.45

Value

$784.75

PnL

-$231.69

Record

23%

174-599 (773)

Both legs:

Yuta Shimizu$83470.7¢-$332.93

Kasidit Samrej$182.4537¢+$101.24

RN1CTR

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$734.83

Value

$627.47

PnL

-$107.37

Record

58%

3628-2593 (6221)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Yuta Shimizu

Invested

$643.63

Value

$352.46

PnL

-$166.67

Record

14%

51-322 (373)

Both legs:

Yuta Shimizu$221.8857.6¢-$69.17

Kasidit Samrej$21371¢-$97.5

LightParadoxCTR

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$349.29

Value

$350.5

PnL

+$20.28

Record

23%

176-590 (766)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Yuta Shimizu

Invested

$265.43

Value

$282.88

PnL

+$17.45

Record

56%

3745-2913 (6658)

Both legs:

Yuta Shimizu$138.7746¢+$43.88

Kasidit Samrej$126.6649.9¢-$26.44

thirdt1meCTR

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$731.54

Value

$208.57

PnL

-$27.65

Record

30%

46-106 (152)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$172.02

Value

$178.92

PnL

+$6.9

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

Both legs:

Kasidit Samrej$87.2541.8¢+$51.67

Yuta Shimizu$84.7771¢-$44.76

babybellsCTR

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$253.15

Value

$143.9

PnL

+$16.7

Record

14%

55-348 (403)

0xheavy888

Yuta Shimizu

Invested

$90.03

Value

$133.89

PnL

+$43.86

Record

57%

70-52 (122)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$81.79

Value

$60.48

PnL

-$21.31

Record

18%

89-400 (489)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$53.43

Value

$51.96

PnL

-$1.47

Record

53%

45-40 (85)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$22.95

Value

$34.93

PnL

+$11.98

Record

27%

213-562 (775)

BillBenter2026<$100

Yuta Shimizu

Invested

$38.98

Value

$31.54

PnL

-$7.44

Record

10%

50-444 (494)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$1.65

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$0.05

Record

20%

113-461 (574)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

Value

$2.06

PnL

+$1.06

Record

16-393 (409)

Research grade

NeutralYuta Shimizu at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yuta Shimizu

4 of 13 top traders (31%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yuta Shimizu wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.