Taipei: Kasidit Samrej vs Omar Jasika

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Omar Jasika (56%) · Omar Jasika at 81¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 9

Kasidit Samrej20¢Omar Jasika80¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Omar Jasika

Consensus Traders

Omar Jasika 56%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 80.5¢

+24% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOmar Jasika at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Omar Jasika

9 of 16 top traders (56%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kasidit Samrej20%

Omar Jasika81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Omar Jasika9 traders

Total Value$12.7K

Total Shares15,886

Combined PnL-$853.19

Kasidit Samrej7 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares6,302

Combined PnL-$443.71

Omar Jasika — 56%Kasidit Samrej — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Omar Jasika. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKasidit Samrej 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpKasidit Samrej 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrKasidit Samrej 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Kasidit Samrej 64% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Omar Jasikaavg 50.8¢	$4.7K	$4.8K	+$157.84	54% 57725-50014 (107739)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Omar Jasikaavg 72.1¢	$4.1K	$3.6K	-$504.01	30% 122-291 (413)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Omar Jasikaavg 77.1¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$278.22	60% 4138-2779 (6917)
└ Omar Jasika leg	Omar Jasikaavg 77.1¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$28.35
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 33¢	$722.77	$449.07	-$306.57
NO NotJump	Omar Jasikaavg 76.9¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$34.29	45% 6299-7631 (13930)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Omar Jasikaavg 53.4¢	$1.8K	$1.0K	+$39.67	58% 43237-31478 (74715)
└ Omar Jasika leg	Omar Jasikaavg 53.4¢	$548.71	$524.16	-$2.15
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 45¢	$468.21	$510	+$41.81
38 38791873984189	Omar Jasikaavg 77¢	$4.3K	$1.0K	-$297.43	47% 11778-13375 (25153)
JU Justluck9	Omar Jasikaavg 56¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$100	41% 96-139 (235)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 23¢	$614.9	$890.79	-$28.49	48% 1141-1244 (2385)
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 23¢	$411.82	$689.35	-$26.86
└ Omar Jasika leg	Omar Jasikaavg 62¢	$203.08	$201.44	-$1.64
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Kasidit Samrejavg 28.8¢	$1.3K	$806.17	-$521.76	58% 47788-33996 (81784)
FL Flaznorp	Omar Jasikaavg 78.6¢	$766.47	$691.38	-$75.09	51% 16720-15862 (32582)
nigiri99CTR	Kasidit Samrejavg 47¢	$630.27	$616.86	-$13.41	46% 6994-8150 (15144)
12xmrboltARB<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 36¢	$199	$235.11	+$36.11	44% 247-311 (558)
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 36¢	$100	$136.11	+$36.11
└ Omar Jasika leg	Omar Jasikaavg 51¢	$99	$99	+$0
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Omar Jasikaavg 77.5¢	$175.95	$164.99	-$10.95	52% 14014-12778 (26792)
└ Omar Jasika leg	Omar Jasikaavg 77.5¢	$127.63	$120.23	-$7.4
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 29.1¢	$48.32	$44.76	-$3.56
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Kasidit Samrejavg 20¢	$49.97	$122.55	+$72.58	59% 30783-21499 (52282)
EU Eulhunter	Omar Jasikaavg 63.7¢	$123.55	$122.54	-$1.01	55% 5714-4753 (10467)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Omar Jasikaavg 69.7¢	$28.68	$29.98	+$1.3	85% 6112-1044 (7156)
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 21¢	$9.8	$22.87	+$13.07	54% 6256-5419 (11675)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 23¢	$6.24	$13.3	+$7.06	48% 9587-10544 (20131)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 37.9¢	$9.66	$7.82	-$1.84	53% 6305-5681 (11986)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 45¢	$6.62	$7.21	+$0.59	61% 13834-8737 (22571)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Omar Jasikaavg 82¢	$5.5	$5	-$0.5	52% 725-667 (1392)

RN1

Omar Jasika

Invested

$4,693.09

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$157.84

Record

54%

57725-50014 (107739)

CandleHammerDrums

Omar Jasika

Invested

$4,072.56

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$504.01

Record

30%

122-291 (413)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Omar Jasika

Invested

$2,074.34

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$278.22

Record

60%

4138-2779 (6917)

Both legs:

Omar Jasika$1,293.1277.1¢+$28.35

Kasidit Samrej$722.7733¢-$306.57

NotJump

Omar Jasika

Invested

$1,465.85

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$34.29

Record

45%

6299-7631 (13930)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Omar Jasika

Invested

$1,841.44

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$39.67

Record

58%

43237-31478 (74715)

Both legs:

Omar Jasika$548.7153.4¢-$2.15

Kasidit Samrej$468.2145¢+$41.81

38791873984189

Omar Jasika

Invested

$4,306.66

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$297.43

Record

47%

11778-13375 (25153)

Justluck9

Omar Jasika

Invested

$1,119.99

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$100

Record

41%

96-139 (235)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$614.9

Value

$890.79

PnL

-$28.49

Record

48%

1141-1244 (2385)

Both legs:

Kasidit Samrej$411.8223¢-$26.86

Omar Jasika$203.0862¢-$1.64

UpTheBluesCTR

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$1,327.93

Value

$806.17

PnL

-$521.76

Record

58%

47788-33996 (81784)

Flaznorp

Omar Jasika

Invested

$766.47

Value

$691.38

PnL

-$75.09

Record

51%

16720-15862 (32582)

nigiri99CTR

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$630.27

Value

$616.86

PnL

-$13.41

Record

46%

6994-8150 (15144)

12xmrboltARB<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$199

Value

$235.11

PnL

+$36.11

Record

44%

247-311 (558)

Both legs:

Kasidit Samrej$10036¢+$36.11

Omar Jasika$9951¢+$0

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Omar Jasika

Invested

$175.95

Value

$164.99

PnL

-$10.95

Record

52%

14014-12778 (26792)

Both legs:

Omar Jasika$127.6377.5¢-$7.4

Kasidit Samrej$48.3229.1¢-$3.56

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$49.97

Value

$122.55

PnL

+$72.58

Record

59%

30783-21499 (52282)

Eulhunter

Omar Jasika

Invested

$123.55

Value

$122.54

PnL

-$1.01

Record

55%

5714-4753 (10467)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Omar Jasika

Invested

$28.68

Value

$29.98

PnL

+$1.3

Record

85%

6112-1044 (7156)

iWasEnoughCTR<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$9.8

Value

$22.87

PnL

+$13.07

Record

54%

6256-5419 (11675)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$6.24

Value

$13.3

PnL

+$7.06

Record

48%

9587-10544 (20131)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$9.66

Value

$7.82

PnL

-$1.84

Record

53%

6305-5681 (11986)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$6.62

Value

$7.21

PnL

+$0.59

Record

61%

13834-8737 (22571)

ferdinand2<$100

Omar Jasika

Invested

$5.5

Value

PnL

-$0.5

Record

52%

725-667 (1392)

Research grade

NeutralOmar Jasika at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Omar Jasika

9 of 16 top traders (56%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Omar Jasika. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKasidit Samrej 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpKasidit Samrej 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrKasidit Samrej 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Kasidit Samrej 64% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Omar Jasika wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.